Posted on 09/14/2016 9:59:14 AM PDT by Theoria
The conventional wisdom holds that sweeping demographic shifts propelled Barack Obama to the presidency.
So heres a simple question: Why havent these demographics swept Hillary Clinton to a big polling lead and a smooth glide to victory? Donald J. Trump, after all, has alienated just about every growing demographic group and every category that helped push Mr. Obama to victory.
The biggest reason is that demographic change was an overrated contribution to Mr. Obamas victory, and it will help Mrs. Clinton only at the margins this year. Analysts have conflated all of the effect of higher turnout and percentage of support among nonwhite voters with demographic shifts. In truth, the turnout and support were far more powerful components.
Mrs. Clinton is not poised to match the gains Mr. Obama made among nonwhite voters over previous Democratic nominees. That brings the pace of Democratic gains down to the slow crawl of demographic change.
Demographic Change Not as Powerful as Assumed
The traditional demographic story is fairly simple: Between 2000 and 2012, the white, non-Hispanic share of voters plummeted. According to the census, white, non-Hispanic voters represented just 74 percent of the electorate in 2012 down from 81 percent in 2000.
The shift was, indeed, driven by demographic change. The white, non-Hispanic share of adult citizens roughly the pool of people eligible to vote fell by roughly the same amount over the same period.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
How extremely surprising.
That is because Trump’s recent reach out to blacks outmaneuvered her.
Why is that surprising? Did she visit Detroit?
Radical drivel
They are getting desperate
Changing the analysis to fit the current narrative and prop-up inevitable Hillary.
C’mon black people!
She OWNS YOU (she said so!)
How could she? Seems to be she’s getting all the “lifting up” from her care workers surrounding her.
And after the AA community reads what Colin Powell said Illary thought about Obama she will get even less support.
They KNOW they are losing.
And it takes a village to help her breathe.
Its like Minitrue.
Facts don’t matter. Its the party line that matters and whatever the party line is at a given moment - is reality.
There are no facts.
Those ingrates!
They need to step up and do their share of schleping her half dead body down the campaign trail.
He has? The numbers certainly don't support that. He is doing better with Latinos and Blacks than McCain or Romney did.
Oh! Is she up and taking sustenance?
“Extra Lift”
How appropriate. The rag doll was lifted and deposited on her face minus a shoe.
You mean they aren’t enthusiastic to support an old sick white lady?
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