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Hillary Clinton Is Getting Surprisingly Little Extra Lift From Blacks and Hispanics
The New York Times ^ | 14 September 2016 | Nate Cohn

Posted on 09/14/2016 9:59:14 AM PDT by Theoria

The conventional wisdom holds that sweeping demographic shifts propelled Barack Obama to the presidency.

So here’s a simple question: Why haven’t these demographics swept Hillary Clinton to a big polling lead and a smooth glide to victory? Donald J. Trump, after all, has alienated just about every growing demographic group and every category that helped push Mr. Obama to victory.

The biggest reason is that demographic change was an overrated contribution to Mr. Obama’s victory, and it will help Mrs. Clinton only at the margins this year. Analysts have conflated all of the effect of higher turnout and percentage of support among nonwhite voters with demographic shifts. In truth, the turnout and support were far more powerful components.

Mrs. Clinton is not poised to match the gains Mr. Obama made among nonwhite voters over previous Democratic nominees. That brings the pace of Democratic gains down to the slow crawl of demographic change.

Demographic Change Not as Powerful as Assumed

The traditional demographic story is fairly simple: Between 2000 and 2012, the white, non-Hispanic share of voters plummeted. According to the census, white, non-Hispanic voters represented just 74 percent of the electorate in 2012 — down from 81 percent in 2000.

The shift was, indeed, driven by demographic change. The white, non-Hispanic share of adult citizens — roughly the pool of people eligible to vote — fell by roughly the same amount over the same period.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016; 2016polls; blacks; blackvote; clinton; demographics; hispanics; hispanicvote
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1 posted on 09/14/2016 9:59:14 AM PDT by Theoria
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To: Theoria

How extremely surprising.


2 posted on 09/14/2016 10:00:35 AM PDT by Steely Tom (Vote GOP: A Slower Handbasket)
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To: Theoria

That is because Trump’s recent reach out to blacks outmaneuvered her.


3 posted on 09/14/2016 10:00:50 AM PDT by Rebel2016
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To: Theoria

Why is that surprising? Did she visit Detroit?


4 posted on 09/14/2016 10:00:58 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Theoria

Radical drivel

They are getting desperate


5 posted on 09/14/2016 10:01:05 AM PDT by arl295
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To: Theoria
So here’s a simple question: Why haven’t these demographics swept Hillary Clinton to a big polling lead and a smooth glide to victory?

uhhhh....cause she is probably the WHITEST WOMAN currently breathing on the planet??


6 posted on 09/14/2016 10:01:37 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Theoria

Changing the analysis to fit the current narrative and prop-up inevitable Hillary.


7 posted on 09/14/2016 10:01:57 AM PDT by sockhead
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To: Theoria

C’mon black people!

She OWNS YOU (she said so!)


8 posted on 09/14/2016 10:02:02 AM PDT by Mr. K (<a href="https://imgflip.com/i/1adpjl"><img src="https://i.imgflip.com/1adpjl.jpg" title="made at im)
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To: Theoria

How could she? Seems to be she’s getting all the “lifting up” from her care workers surrounding her.


9 posted on 09/14/2016 10:03:08 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Theoria

And after the AA community reads what Colin Powell said Illary thought about Obama she will get even less support.


10 posted on 09/14/2016 10:04:01 AM PDT by Navin Johnson
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To: Theoria

They KNOW they are losing.


11 posted on 09/14/2016 10:04:16 AM PDT by Scott from the Left Coast (I'm deplorable)
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To: Buckeye McFrog
uhhhh....cause she is probably the WHITEST WOMAN currently breathing on the planet??

And it takes a village to help her breathe.

12 posted on 09/14/2016 10:04:18 AM PDT by Steely Tom (Vote GOP: A Slower Handbasket)
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To: Theoria

Its like Minitrue.

Facts don’t matter. Its the party line that matters and whatever the party line is at a given moment - is reality.

There are no facts.


13 posted on 09/14/2016 10:04:28 AM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))
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To: Theoria

Those ingrates!

They need to step up and do their share of schleping her half dead body down the campaign trail.


14 posted on 09/14/2016 10:05:07 AM PDT by Catmom (We're all gonna get the punishment only some of us deserve.)
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To: Theoria
"Donald J. Trump, after all, has alienated just about every growing demographic group and every category that helped push Mr. Obama to victory."

He has? The numbers certainly don't support that. He is doing better with Latinos and Blacks than McCain or Romney did.

15 posted on 09/14/2016 10:08:17 AM PDT by circlecity
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To: Theoria

Oh! Is she up and taking sustenance?


16 posted on 09/14/2016 10:09:00 AM PDT by yoe (Liars never win....)
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To: Theoria

“Extra Lift”

How appropriate. The rag doll was lifted and deposited on her face minus a shoe.


17 posted on 09/14/2016 10:09:37 AM PDT by Lent
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To: Theoria
Where are the polls on how the muzzies will vote?


18 posted on 09/14/2016 10:11:39 AM PDT by Daffynition (*If you're not gonna tell the truth, then why start talking?*~ Gene Wilder)
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To: circlecity
He has? The numbers certainly don't support that. He is doing better with Latinos and Blacks than McCain or Romney did.

This is really all they have left. Within both the left, and the establishment Republicans, they keep repeating the mantra that Trump is an awful candidate, and that he has driven away huge voting blocks, but the evidence is quite the opposite: he is a very good candidate (definitely the best since Reagan), and he is attracting voters out of core Democrat constituencies, as well as independents/rare voters.
19 posted on 09/14/2016 10:14:37 AM PDT by jjsheridan5
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To: Theoria

You mean they aren’t enthusiastic to support an old sick white lady?


20 posted on 09/14/2016 10:15:35 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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