Posted on 07/07/2016 9:24:45 AM PDT by Olog-hai
German firms expect exports to Britain to tumble five percent next year in the wake of the Britain’s vote to quit the EU, an industry survey showed on Thursday.
The German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) also revised its projection for 2016 to a one-percent drop rather than five percent growth.
The figures were based on a survey of 5,600 businesses that export to Britain following the June 23 referendum in which 52 percent of Britons voted to leave the EU.
Britain is currently Germany’s third-largest export market, buying up €89 billion of goods in 2015. …
(Excerpt) Read more at thelocal.de ...
Germany exports way more to the UK than they import.
Who is going to lose that trade war?
Maybe they’re thinking of shifting goods to China’s market via that new “silk road” rail/sail route that China just spent $1 trillion on developing.
Is 5% a tumble or a minor adjustment?
it is a non event
Notwithstanding, Agence France-Presse is determined to build mountains out of molehills for certain political goals.
Merkel is doing all she can, to make the ‘exit move’ appear less palatable for other nations considering exiting.
Good luck with that!
People forget that bilateral trade agreements were the rule before the EU. In fact, the seeds of the EU were planted in a bilateral trade agreement between Belgium and the Netherlands just after World War II. It was later expanded to include Luxembourg (BENELUX) and became the basis for the Common Market and EEC.
Had the EU stuck to the trade benefits of the EEC and not expanded to micromanagement and open borders advocacy, there never would've even been a Brexit vote.
The German elites do not regard themselves as doing anything separate from the EU, which of late they make it plain they think they own.
The EEC had the framework for today’s micromanagement, and its beginnings in the form of not only the bureaucracy but also a common agricultural policy. It was always intended to be political, what with the intent “to establish an ever-closer union among the European peoples” and “to ensure the economic and social progress of their countries by common action in eliminating the barriers which divide Europe” made plain in the first two lines of the preamble of the 1957 Treaty of Rome.
it is a non event.”
Probably driven by the Brits now buying their own British-built tea pots and vacuum cleaners! But Oh, think of the inefficiency and added pollution! The Brits are such environmental troglodytes!
IOW, the UK wins — Germany can’t afford to lose the UK market. Media spin? Bigtime. Or maybe Germany can sell 820,000 cars into the Russian ‘market’?
German carmakers raise fears over Brexit
Chris Bryant in Frankfurt and Jeevan Vasagar in Berlin
Financial Times
July 2, 2015
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6cda050-20bb-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html
[snip] About a fifth of all cars produced in Germany last year, or around 820,000 vehicles, were exported to the UK, making it the single biggest destination by volume. By contrast, Greece accounted for just 0.3 per cent of German car exports last year. Matthias Wissmann, president of the VDA, Germany’s automotive industry association, said in Berlin on Thursday: “Keeping Britain in the EU is more significant than keeping Greece in the euro.” [/snip]
This simply means the lobbying class in Germany and/or the EU representing German automakers will press for reduced tariffs, almost certainly achieve them, and the market will work to “correct” itself.....”correct”, meaning, work to retake whatever numbers were printed in most recent memory. And the market will work to achieve its voodoo once again. It is the way things work: There is a cause and there is an effect and there is a reaction to the effect. It is like the buying activity that comes into a stock (of quality) that suffers what is perceived as a temporary hit in price. If you take a snapshot at the “dip” point and recall the prior (higher) number AND then forecast a trajectory to zero, then it is doom. But business activity and markets are not about snapshots. It is the same thing as a “sale” on consumer goods. In the vast majority of cases, if there is desire for those goods, increased volume (activity) will occur at the lower price during the sale. If the UK erects barriers to trade, then German automakers will work to lower their sale prices. If the Germans impose some kind of punitive something-or-other upon the UK to punish them for their exit from the EU, they will suffer lower sales, the lobbyists will get to work, and something will be worked out. That it does not happen inside of one week or one month is just the limitation of the illusion that the “snapshot” produces.
The UK should resurrect its trade agreements with the Commonwealth countries. Plenty of those: for example, Australia and Canada have massive natural resources, and India has a growing middle class, and a huge potential market. At least those countries wouldn’t be mandating the hours that British shopkeepers may open, what they must pay their employees, how many hostile immigrants they must accept, and what other regulatory hoops they must jump through. That’s up to the British people to decide for themselves.
While we’re at it - rearranging the world’s alliances, that is - can we please take this opportunity to exit the UNITTA (United Nations of Tyrants, Thugs and Antisemites) and create our own UNOD - United Nations of Democracies?
If I had made a post in favor of TTIP I’d use the same example. The UK imported 50 billion worth of cars. 50% from Germany and 1% from the USA. Here is one place where both the USA and the UK would have benefited from the free trad3.
That begs the question as to why the UN came to be at all. Its charter is based on the 1936 USSR constitution. And it certainly served the purpose that Alger Hiss envisioned for it, that being to spread Marxist corruption not only within the USA but also around the world.
While we’re at it — rearranging the world’s alliances, that is — can we please take this opportunity to exit the UNITTA (United Nations of Tyrants, Thugs and Antisemites) and create our own UNOD — United Nations of Democracies?
Sad how the UK auto industry self-eviscerated. But it’s a lot like what the left is doing to the US auto industry.
Germans will easily choose devaluation of Euro.
I have also a correction to make - German car export to the UK included Ford. Ford makes the cars it sells in the EU in Germany and that is why it got recorded as German cars in the statistics I used.
Thanks Krosan.
All irrelevant, including the quibble.
Irrelevant to what? Rearranging the old mistakes will not repair them.
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