Posted on 05/16/2016 5:18:26 AM PDT by GonzoII
Oregon is generally considered as Blue State. Yes, still it is.
But Oregon has a potential to be a swing state in 2016.
1. Party Affiliation (2014). Oregon Party Affiliation didn’t change much in last 2 years.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/27/state-party-registration_n_5399977.html
Democrats 39% Republican 31% Independents 30%
Considering 49% would be a winning numbers.
If TRUMP gets 15% of the Democrats, 90% of the Republican, 55% of the Independent.
39%(DEM) X 12% + 31%(Rep) x 90% + 30%(Inde) x 55% = 49.08%.
2. Racial Demogrpahics.
Voters Shares(considering Turnouts) in 2016, it would be
White 89% | Hispanic 6.5% | Black 2% | Asian 2.5%
If TRUMP could attract Reagan Democrats(mostly white), it is a worth to challenge.
3. Romney(GOP) once chased Obama 43-47 of SurveryUSA Poll
(5/7-5/10/2012, 1468 RV)
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=19eb906a-ae83-463b-9daa-3c3bda489d7d
Obama(D) 47% | Romney® 43%
4. TRUMP vs Hillary in Oregon. DHM Research May 6-9, 2016 901 RV.
http://res.cloudinary.com/bdy4ger4/image/upload/v1462998751/OPBFoxPrimaryElectionSurveyGeneralElection_ujlqhh.pdf
Page 9. TRUMP 32% | Hillary 43% 11% margins.
11% gap. But considering Those factors, it could be tighter than results.....
(Excerpt) Read more at statespoll.com ...
If Trump wins nationally, he will take OR; otherwise, not a chance!
No way.
It'll all be over by the time we finish voting in NJ!
ML/NJ
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It’s Jefferson.
If Trump takes OR in the general election, WA could go to Trump as well.
He’ll run better in the Pacific Northwest than Romney.
CA on the other hand is hopeless - just too many liberals in SF and LA for the state to matter and it hasn’t mattered in a long time.
If the Dems are defending Oregon after Labor Day it will be a GOP blow-out of Reagan proportions.
It seems to me that a Clinton 11-13% lead at this point in Oregon is not that impressive?
I don’t see it; also in WA, if a race is close, D’s regularly withhold results in King County and “miraculously” find misplaced ballots at the 11th hour.
Perhaps enough Oregonians are sickened by their ultra-left governor and the dystopian agendas being pushed, they’ll get off their couches and vote.
We can only hope.
I wish they would stop using the red/blue moniker
Before AlGore ran the duhmmies were always COMMIE RED
No, incumbents (or their same party) were blue challengers were red.
Oregon is a Red Commie state, but only because of Portlandia.
Jefferson is not a swing state, will vote R if it comes to be.
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