Posted on 03/30/2016 2:35:54 PM PDT by Kaslin
Frontrunner Donald Trump has become more unpopular since the start of primaries in February, and now the convention calendar turns to more moderate-to-liberal states as the contest draws near completion. Will Trump's decreasing popularity cost him the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination outright?
In January, the Huffington Post Pollster average of recent polls found that only 37 percent of voters view The Donald favorably, while 57 percent view him unfavorably. This was bad enough, but the most recent numbers (from Tuesday, March 29) show an even less popular frontrunner. Only 31.6 percent have a positive image of the man, while 63.3 percent dislike him. The gap has risen from negative 20 points to negative 31.7 points.
While Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz are also viewed unfavorably, their numbers are nowhere near this bad. Only John Kasich and Bernie Sanders have positive approval ratings, and fewer Democrats and Republicans turn out to vote for them.
In the prediction market PredictWise, the likelihood that one GOP candidate will win a majority of the delegates has dropped from 50 percent to 38 percent. The odds that the contention goes into at least a second ballot have increased from 42 percent to 55 percent, even while the odds of Trump's nomination remain high, dropping from 78 percent to 76 percent.
As the Republican primary nears its end, the states still to vote take a more liberal turn. In April, Wisconsin, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island vote. All of these states favored Barack Obama in 2012. In some of these states, the more moderate Kasich leads the conservative stalwart Cruz. Yet in one, Cruz has pulled ahead of Trump.
A recent poll has pushed up Ted Cruz's average in Wisconsin, and he now leads Trump 33.0 percent to 32.3 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. This Cruz jump may be attributable, in part, to the endorsement of Governor Scott Walker. Trump leads strongly in his home state of New York, with 53.0 percent to Kasich's 14.3 percent and Cruz's 13.0 percent. Kasich also beats Cruz in Pennsylvania, where Trump leads with 34.5 percent to Kasich's 20.0 percent and Cruz's 18.5 percent.
Could Kasich's presence keep Cruz from taking delegates away from Trump? Will Trump's decreasing popularity cost him in the next three months? All three of the candidates have recently backed away from their pledge to support whichever candidate wins the nomination. The fracturing of the Republican Party continues apace, as Trump's popularity falls, even as he still leads in the polls for many upcoming states.
Cruz thinks he will win the race, even while he badly trails Trump in the delegate count, with 463 delegates to Trump's 736. Both Cruz and Kasich are also courting delegates to the July Republican National Convention in Cleveland, even as Trump has hired his own convention muscle, with close ties to Putin's Ukrainian puppet, Viktor Yanukovych. If Trump falls short of 1,237 delegates, we'll be in for one big show.
I notice you’re on something of an anti-Trump kick.
Just saying.
So liberal states will vote for Cruz? Kasich? LOL!
Mr. Trump has held up remarkably well considering the ‘Palin’ treatment he’s received 24/7 by big media, large corporations, and his own Party.
Trump was our only hope. If Cruz is the President he will destroy America.
Oh sure - and we’re all ready to dig up Mitt again.
Sheesh.
Like New York Republicans are going to vote for Cruz or Ksick?
LOL!!! That’s funny!!!
lol Goooood point.
YES
Once again, the eminent demise of The Donald is being predicted, based on - what, exactly?
He has struck a chord with a wide swath of people who, perhaps NEVER in their lives, even considered any aspect of that they though at “Republican” to be, and they see The Donald, not as a Republican, but as what they consider common good hard home truths.
Sure, The Donald is brash, and sometimes reverses his stance almost in mid-sentence, there are numerous instances where he has done just such mental gymnastics. But somehow, this does not shake his loyal followers.
Rules of leadership:
Find a parade, and get around in front of it.
Step off briskly, with confidence and a very obvious display of authority.
Look back from time to time, and see if anybody is still there, adjusting your tempo and direction accordingly.
Hell, this is his first run as a politician and he beat heavy weight political veterans.
I agree with most of what you said, eg Cruz is a Lloyd Blankfein slut.
I refuse to give up, as long as I breathe. Remember, we have all the GUNS.
Trumps hoping something will open up that will get him out of this and still save face...he's trying awful hard to make sure he doesn't get the delegates.....though that's not what he has to project....until he finds an escape he'll keep on the trail hoping he can discourage enough voters for Cruz or Kasich to take over. The guy doesn't want this and never did think he'd come this far...now he can't find the people to support him in Washington or willing to come on board...he does not want to enter the Lions Den without a team to protect him and lead him through the mind-field.......and it's hard getting anyone of significance enough to assure him of that....which he knows he would fail without.
Trump is fighting many fronts. The democrat party, George Soros and Moveon.org, the wall street financiers, the GOP establishment, the media, etc.
So much has come together to try to stop him, which is really someone representing the American people in Washington DC. It’s something we haven’t had in a long, long time because these powers that be will manipulate us til they get the candidates they want.
It’s sad for the power brokers in this country to continue to deceive all in order to preserve their corrupt status quo and so many here have joined in with those evil fronts, either knowingly or unknowingly.
Trump may be this republic’s last chance but so many will not let go of the corrupt culture created by these power brokers to give America at least a chance.
They still let the media corrupt them or be scared of what they may do. We see Americans fall for this time and time again. You’d think fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me would ring true with some of these people but it doesn’t.
I guess we will get the corrupt leaders we deserve. That’s how we got 0bama and until we show the courage to fight against this whole corrupt culture, and not allow ourselves to be deceived, nothing will change and eventually we will lose our republic.
CGato
The Cruz Cultist now post propaganda from the Huffy Puffy Posty.
If you actually read the article, you would have your answer.
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