Posted on 03/13/2016 3:22:37 PM PDT by ObamahatesPACoal
If we’re ultra-conservative w/ proportional contests, and assume Trump loses a number of states that he currently leads, he still gets ~1,300…
Delegates Guesstimate
March 12 Wyoming (UNBOUND) 29 / 0
March 15 Florida (WTA) 99 /99
Illinois (WTM) 66 /40
Missouri 52 /15
North Carolina 72 /40
Ohio (WTA) 66 /0
March 22 Arizona (WTA) 58 /58
Utah 40 /0
Thank you for posting that Booster Shot of optimism. It made my day. Time will tell what really happens. There are so many possible endings!!
Didn’t Cruz win Wyoming, though?
nice pic
He did, but only 11 delegates were chosen in the primary; the rest are picked by the state convention where Trump probably doesn’t control the delegates.
By my calculations, he gets to 1350 w/o Ohio, conservatively.
Trump already has about 1/3 of those needed and we are basically still in the 2nd major week of the primaries.
Cruz has about 1/4 of those needed.
Rubio has about 1/8 of those needed.
Kasich has an impossible dream.
Even the animals are in on it: :-)
The calculation gives Trump ZERO out of Wyoming, and has him getting over 1237. it also gives Trump only 15 in Missouri, out of 52.
This should make you all feel better, and I’m sure they’ve run these at the GOPe HQ and on Faux News:
By most counts (don’t know why they can’t figure this out) Trump has 338 delegates toward 1237. That puts him ahead of schedule (so to speak) by about 18%.
Tomorrow’s primaries (3/5) will likely give him at least 30% (maybe 40%) of the 134 delegates from KY, KS, LA, and ME (i.e., another 45 delegates). So probably by tomorrow evening Trump should have about 380 delegates, maybe more.
On March 8 he will get 40% of MI, MS, plus some % of ID and HA, or about 55 more delegates (Trump got 71 delegates Tues, 3/8) for a total of about 430 delegates by next week. (It's now Wednesday am, 3/9 and the current Trump delegate count is 458.)
But the big enchilada is March 15, the second Super Tuesday where all of the big states are winner take all: FL, MO, IL, OH, and NC. Trump leads pretty big in all of those. That’s a total of 358 delegates. So there is a pretty good chance that by March 15, Trump will have almost 2/3 of the delegates he needs before he ever goes to the Northeast areas where he will just sweep (another 358 by my count in NY, RI, CT, WV, MD, DE, and PA).
Even allowing for a few losses like UT or AZ (and he led the last poll I saw out of AZ), by the time you get to CA (172) Trump is at 1318. And, again, I’m not even looking at states where I haven’t seen polling or where it has not been favorable to Trump, such as MT, ND, UT, OR, WA, AZ, NJ (which he’ll win easy for another 57 delegates), SD, NM, IN, WI, or NE, plus the territories, all of which hold another 372 delegates. Many of these are winner take all, but not all, and even if he loses in many of these, Trump would still walk away with probably 20% at minimum, or another 50-60 delegates, bringing his total to about 1360.
But last I saw, Trump was leading in AZ, WI, OR, WA, IN, so it’s more likely he would come into the convention with closer to 1400 delegates. (please let me know if you have other updates on some of these in-state polls)
In other words, a blowout. They won’t be able to stop him.
Don't relax. Get Out the Vote!
A couple of websites’ current delegate counts, 1237 needed to win:
Trump 464
Cruz 371
Rubio 166
Kasich 26
==
CNN
Trump 462
Cruz 371
Rubio 165
Kasich 63
Ohio for Trump.
He has my vote Tuesday...I think all know I was a strong Cruz only guy about a month ago.
There’s no such thing as too many wins.
Trump has won 43% of the delegates to date. He has to pick up the pace and win 55% of the remaining to get to 1237.
Delegates At GOP Convention Not Bound On First Ballot
[no, but they’ll stand up on their piss-stained hind legs and vote for Trump for fear of the voters]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3408791/posts
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