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Huffington Post: Trump Near-Certain to Defeat Democrat in November According To Primary Model
Huffington Post ^ | 3/7/2016 | Helmut Norpoth

Posted on 03/07/2016 8:45:38 PM PST by usafa92

With Donald Trump as the nominee, Republicans are highly certain to win the presidential election on November 8, 2016. Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton with 87 percent certainty, and Bernie Sanders with 99 percent.

These forecasts come from the PRIMARY MODEL. It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.

Early primaries are a leading indicator of electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states.

What favors the GOP in 2016 as well, no matter if Trump is the nominee or any other Republican, is a cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year. This cycle, which is illustrated with elections since 1960, goes back a long way to 1828.

(Excerpt) Read more at huffingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; cruz; election2016; elections; general; hillary; hillary2016; huffingtonpost; huffpo; idiocy; newyork; puffho; puffingtonhost; sanders; trump; trump2016
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To: GOPJ

True.


21 posted on 03/07/2016 9:10:25 PM PST by rineaux
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To: rineaux

“GOING?” to get ugly...

Really?

LOL


22 posted on 03/07/2016 9:14:25 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: Psalm 144
" How shattered the Rockefeller, Bush, Romney machine will be!"

Will have to watch and see how far that machine reaches out to steal Michigan tomorrow.

Hillary is in a great position. She is spending nothing while her friends Rove and Romney do all the spending to defeat Trump.

Same team.

23 posted on 03/07/2016 9:14:28 PM PST by rineaux
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To: usafa92

“Trump Near-Certain to Defeat Democrat in November According To Primary Model”

And that’s what the GOPe/RINO/Oligarch/Plutocrat rich string pullers REALLY fear! They fear the election of the one person they can’t control. Everyone else is going to owe 2 billion in quid quo pro “favors” to their campaign “donors”. Hillary is FAR more preferable to these traitors of the working class than Trump.


24 posted on 03/07/2016 9:14:34 PM PST by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: usafa92
to those on the right that hate Trump....why does the GOPe and left also hate him so much?

Us that support Trump keep been accused that we are selling out the right

But why is it its the anti Trump right is in agreement with the GOPe and the left?

You ask us to look at Trumps friends, who he is in bed with politically...

But to the anti Trump right... look who your in bed with on the antiTrump side? does that cause you to question ?

It cut both ways.. if Trump is some closet moderate why are the moderates on the GOPe and the left freaking out so hard about him

I got it to admit I'm very cynical at this point...and one of the big things....Trump has all the right enemies... and if GOPe would even go Cruz to take out Trump... .it makes me think Trump is the better choice to break the GOPe back

25 posted on 03/07/2016 9:14:36 PM PST by tophat9000 (King G(OP)eorge III has no idea why the Americans are in rebellion... teach him whygrade switches)
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To: DoughtyOne
Okay. Bad choice of words. LOL. We know it's been ugly.

 photo CcbprqNWEAIeEtE.jpg

26 posted on 03/07/2016 9:16:04 PM PST by rineaux
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To: tophat9000
"why does the GOPe and left also hate him so much?"

Can you cite something as evidence that the left hates Trump?

27 posted on 03/07/2016 9:17:40 PM PST by matthew fuller (Cruz has never been pro-abortion, anti-gun, a Clinton donor, a Schumer donor, or filed bankruptcy.)
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To: MichaelCorleone

I don’t see that as possible. If Trump or Cruz does not win on the first ballot, do we assume that all of those delegates suddenly agree to vote for an establishment candidate like Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney. I believe that’s the last thing that would happen.


28 posted on 03/07/2016 9:17:57 PM PST by PUGACHEV
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To: rineaux

No problem. I was laughing as I typed.


29 posted on 03/07/2016 9:19:21 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: rineaux

Nice picture...


30 posted on 03/07/2016 9:19:35 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: Albion Wilde

Will I would hope so. He has certainly worked hard enough for it. And taken more than his share of cheap shots, poor jokes. Go!! TRUMP Take it to the limit. Bring it on and bring them (whoever) down. Hit ‘em with your best shot.


31 posted on 03/07/2016 9:21:30 PM PST by V K Lee (u TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP to TRIUMPH Follow the lead MAKE AMERICA GREAT)
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To: DoughtyOne

I’d like to see a portion of the emails, text’s, phone calls, etc., from the anti Trump movement. The collusion of the powers that be is beyond criminal.


32 posted on 03/07/2016 9:28:26 PM PST by rineaux
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To: struggle

“I could care less.”

It’s: Couldn’t care less.


33 posted on 03/07/2016 9:29:23 PM PST by Windflier (Pitchforks and torches ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
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To: rineaux

I think it involves both parties and just about every public entity.

This should tell folks who we need to vote for IMO.


34 posted on 03/07/2016 9:30:31 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: matthew fuller

“Can you cite something as evidence that the left hates Trump?”

This was just posted above:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3406469/posts


35 posted on 03/07/2016 9:32:51 PM PST by map
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To: usafa92

That makes a lot more sense to me!


36 posted on 03/07/2016 9:33:51 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: usafa92

So your listening to Huffington Post?? I wouldn’t read that If I were you. I used to blog on there just to Rile them up and boy did I...


37 posted on 03/07/2016 9:52:01 PM PST by tallyhoe
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To: map

I think that the fact that UIC Chicago is hosting Trump, even though he is paying, proves my point.


38 posted on 03/07/2016 9:53:03 PM PST by matthew fuller (Cruz has never been pro-abortion, anti-gun, a Clinton donor, a Schumer donor, or filed bankruptcy.)
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To: matthew fuller

“I think that the fact that UIC Chicago is hosting Trump, even though he is paying, proves my point.”

The radical left is mobilizing: the students, professors, et al.

The left hates KKK billionaire Trump. This is only the beginning.


39 posted on 03/07/2016 10:08:43 PM PST by map
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To: goldstategop

“The GOP establishment wants Hillary.

Why else would they throw their strongest guy overboard?

They can’t cut deals with him or buy him. Its that simple.”

Sadly, I think you are 100% correct


40 posted on 03/07/2016 10:11:29 PM PST by Innovative ("Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." -- Vince Lombardi)
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