Huffington Post: Trump Near-Certain to Defeat Democrat in November According To Primary Model

Huffington Post ^ | 3/7/2016 | Helmut Norpoth

[usafa92]

With Donald Trump as the nominee, Republicans are highly certain to win the presidential election on November 8, 2016. Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton with 87 percent certainty, and Bernie Sanders with 99 percent.

These forecasts come from the PRIMARY MODEL. It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.

Early primaries are a leading indicator of electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states.

What favors the GOP in 2016 as well, no matter if Trump is the nominee or any other Republican, is a cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year. This cycle, which is illustrated with elections since 1960, goes back a long way to 1828.

[usafa92]

This is a follow-up to the article posted last week with additional details and support. According to this model, Trump is the only Republocan who will beat Hillary. Sorry Cruz supporters, Ted loses as badly as Rubio would. However, they will all defeat Bernie, with 99% certainty.

[struggle]

I could care less. Put anyone but Rubio up and I’ll vote gleefully. I know this may be impossible, but is it too much to ask Trump’s inaugural address for him to turn to all the government worker lackeys and lobbyists and say “Your FIRED!”

[struggle]

*You’re

[LongWayHome]

Not so sure with the “new” demographics.

[rineaux]

Romney and the billions of super pac dollars are going to make sure Trump will not be the nominee.

It's going to get ugly.

[teletech]

I could care less. Put anyone but Rubio up and I’ll vote gleefully. I know this may be impossible, but is it too much to ask Trump’s inaugural address for him to turn to all the government worker lackeys and lobbyists and say “Your FIRED!”

YES it would!

[Sooth2222]

"With Donald Trump as the nominee, Republicans are highly certain to win the presidential election on November 8, 2016. Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton with 87 percent certainty, and Bernie Sanders with 99 percent. "

What is "highly certain"?

[BigEdLB]

Agree delicious idea

[goldstategop]

The GOP establishment wants Hillary.

Why else would they throw their strongest guy overboard?

They can’t cut deals with him or buy him. Its that simple.

[4rcane]

I thought polls say Hillary beat Trump by 5% and Sanders beat Trump by 10%. Its what all the Republicans been telling me about Trump

[Rebelbase]

Of course. The primary model has an If THEN statement. If Trump is winning then change his votes to Hillary.

[4rcane]

Hillary could win 6/6 coin toss and then win with card guessing in another state, so who could say? Hillary have very good luck, maybe she could win with 1%

[goldstategop]

Yup. Except there’s White House party fatigue after 8 years.

If Hillary wins, she’d be lucky to serve one term. 12 years is the most Americans will put up with the same party controlling the White House.

The GOP could run Dumbo the Elephant against Hillary based on this rule and she would still be beaten.

Its quite possible the 8 Year Itch may be Hillary’s undoing in November.

[Noumenon]

I think that it will be a landslide of Reaganesque proportions. That is, if the GravyTrainians don’t upset the board. Then it’s going to get real sporty.

[usafa92]

Well, what would an 87% chance of winning mean to you? I’d say that was highly certain.

[GOPJ]

It's going to get ugly.

It's already ugly...it's gonna get worse...

[Albion Wilde]

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post your request on the thread below or freepmail to Albion Wilde.

* * *

Selected Trump articles on FR, with links, from 3:30 PM to 11:59 PM EST, 3/7/9/16:
Trump Near-Certain to Defeat Democrat in November According To Primary Model –HuffPo
Free Republic Caucus 2016 03/08
Who is making a push in Ohio? Trump and Kasich (Trump ad buys) –Columbus Dispatch
Huffington Post: At Secretive Meeting, Tech CEOs And Top Republicans Commiserate, Plot To Stop Trump –HuffPo
Pssttt...Trump Was Right (Again) –Market Ticker
Republican Kasich says does not need delegate lead to win nomination –Reuters
The #NeverTrumpers Are Helping To Elect Hillary Clinton –DailyCaller
The Lives of Americans, The Livelihoods of the Drug Companies: Donald Trump Points the Way –Breitbart
Trump University Truth –Trump video
Cruz Allies Seek to Ensure Rubio Loss in Florida
Judge dismisses attempt to kick Ted Cruz off New York ballot (on a technicality)
Cleveland Is Stocking Up On Riot Gear Ahead Of The Republican National Convention –chicagoist.com
THE OLIGARCHS' SUPER-PAC ANTI-TRUMP SAVAGERY –Pat Buchanan
Florida poll: Donald Trump leads Marco Rubio –CNN
Confusion On The Ohio Primary Ballot (video)
Trump's support is still being underestimated –FloppingAces
More Latinos Seek Citizenship to Vote Against Trump –NYT
Donald Trump Would Be Easy to Stop Under Democratic Rules –Nate Silver
Trump Still Strong (MI) - Kasich and Cruz Rise (T-42, K-19.6, C-19.3, R-9) –MItchell Research
Byron York: Showing strength in Michigan, Trump feeds on hostility to GOP, Romney
Ted Cruz Is Being Used By GOP Establishment & He Doesn’t Seem To Care –DC Whispers
Donald Trump on Economic Recovery (1991) (video)
Chronicle: Donald Trump Is Changing Politics in Silicon Valley –Breitbart
Trump is closer to what most Republicans believe than the ‘establishment’ candidates are –WaPo
Who's an outsider? GOP establishment fears loss of standing –AP
How Donald Trump is ruining Paul Ryan’s speakership –WaPo
CNN: Some Marco Rubio Advisers Say Get out Before Florida –Breitbart
EXCLUSIVE–Donald Trump Jr.: ‘We Believe In The Right To Carry,’ The Right To Shoot Back –Breitbart
Michael Bloomberg Will Not Enter Presidential Race –Yahoo
Mexican President: Trump Language Like That of Hitler –AP
Get Ready to Say President Trump (Trump has the advantage in seven crucial states). USNews
Healthcare Reform to Make America Great Again –Donald J. Trump
Trump [38], Kasich [35] in Tight Ohio Race (Winner-Takes-All) –PPP
Why European Leaders Hate Trump –Market Ticker
Donald Trump Florida Ad Hits ‘Corrupt Marco Rubio’ –NYT article
Corrupt Marco - TV Spot (Donald Trump commercial) (video)
Michigan Poll: Trump Up Big, But Cruz Would Win Head-To-Head –Breitbart
Trump doing better in "open" primaries; Cruz sees success in GOP-only contests –FoxNews
Trump Denies Maiming Unicorn and Killing Tooth Fairy (humor)

[Psalm 144]

Romney and the billions of super pac dollars are going to make sure Trump will not be the nominee.

It’s going to get ugly.

---

And if they fail... How shattered the Rockefeller, Bush, Romney machine will be!

Ozymandias.

[relictele]

Huff Po, Wash Post, Politico et al alternate by the hour between sandbagging conservatives with positive stories and then telling them they have no hope.

Let’s assume a Trump/Hillary matchup. I refuse to make a prediction this early (apart from a fervent rooting interest) but I do think that Camp Hill are living in a fool’s paradise for several reasons including, but not limited to:

1) The e-mail scandal. She’s got her friends in high places, which may or may not include Obama. But Obama has always worried only about Obama which may be the only thing protecting her from indictment. I keep hearing the FBI has pride - it’s well past time for them to prove it.

2) Bernie Sanders. Trump loses the odd state and we get ‘Man Lands On Moon’ sized headlines. Hillary can’t even reliably defeat the hand-picked, terminally-flawed, crazy-uncle tomato can the DNC provided for her. In multiple states. The media pretend this is entirely normal and STILL somehow indicative of her strength as a candidate and her inevitability - if they acknowledge her losses at all.

3) Bill Clinton. To say he has underwhelmed is to say that the 1976 Tampa Bay Bucs were less than competitive. He’s the spouse-in-name-only of the Dem candidate so they can’t hide him away entirely but by God they’re trying. He’s embarrassing himself (again) along with his so-called wife and her cronies who thought he might actually deliver votes.

4) Hillary herself. I will be the 9,847th person to note that people cannot stand her. And those are her own people.

5) Donald Trump. He has no need or want of maintaining some Dudley Doright image. The Clinton slime machine will, for once in its life, experience return fire with most of directed at the Clinton candidate who will whine about the GOP hitting the girl but Trump will not give a toss (if he’s smart and resists the media hue and cry). Her attempts to involve the GOP ‘good guys’ like McConnell, Ryan and Priebus will fall flat because they already hate Trump so their mock outrage will be ignored by one and all.

[MichaelCorleone]

Agreed.

No other way to slice it.

I still think Jeb will emerge as the nominee via this corrupt brokered convention.