Posted on 03/04/2016 7:41:39 AM PST by mandaladon
Donald Trump did not amass a majority of delegates on Super Tuesday. But he could soon.
If the people in the rest of the nation vote as the Super Tuesday results suggest they would, Mr. Trump would easily amass a majority of delegates and avoid the contested convention that his opponents hope to force and win.
He could even do so without wins in Ohio and Florida, the two largest winner-take-all states, where he faces opponents in their home states.
Mr. Trump would amass so many delegates because the rules become more biased toward candidates who win, allowing him the chance to take an overwhelming share of delegates with just a minority of the vote. It becomes easy to win lopsided delegate margins starting March 15, when states are allowed to apportion their delegates on a winner-take-all basis. At the same time, the primary calendar doesn’t become less favorable and may even become more advantageous to him, depending on which candidates stay in the race.
But the results so far also indicate he could still be defeated, suggesting Mr. Trump is far from winning a majority of the popular vote. He could be denied a majority of delegates if the field narrowed to Mr. Rubio.
If the remaining states vote as one would expect based on their demographics and the results so far, Mr. Trump will defeat Marco Rubio by a margin of 37 percent to 25 percent over the rest of the race. Ted Cruz would take third place over the rest of the primary season, with 22 percent of the vote. (These figures were calculated by weighting the candidate’s projected vote share in congressional districts by Mitt Romney’s vote in 2012, to more appropriately reflect the importance of caucuses.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Has anyone calculated what his actual delegate count would be if he continues on the current path based on the current polls in the remaining States and Territories?
Open borders dummie will make the GOP a WHIG party.
Bobby and Ted Kennedy knew it was the end of the Demoratic Party without open Borders just like the people who sold Jesus out for a ball of silver the GOP is selling out the Middle Class for Rich Donors
Not on my watch because it's never voting for a GOP candidate again if they cost Trump the Election.
I guess they really don't care about Judge Hillary will appoint, might as well let Obama opick one now
Trump is stronger now than he has ever been. The Romney-McCain-Est. Republican circus has lit some hellacious booster rockets under Trump that hands him the nomination. What fools!!!! Go Trump!!!!
I can’t speak for how accurate Nate Silver’s predictions are, but his tracker seems to be the best I’ve seen. Trump is 14% ahead of “plan”, the rest are all behind.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
Interviewed back in 88 election cycle.
Yes, Romney is an idiot.
If he really wanted to stop Trump his act yesterday was the very WORST thing he could have done.
Follow this guy on Twitter. He is even smarter than Nate Silver and beat him by far in the last election.He doesn’t post as much but he is known in circles as the guy.
https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD
Maybe the gopE is right. Maybe Hillary can beat Trump and that’s what they want. This wringing of hands is all for show. /s
Thanks for the link. However it does not project what his total delegate count would be based on current polls. Or at least I have not been able to find it.
He has held this view for DECADES, so we could trust he will carry it out
Headline is silly. OF COURSE Trump will win if the race stays on its current trajectory. Paging Captain Obvious.
That’s why the push to change the trajectory.
In 2012 Romney secured enough delegates to get the nomination on May 29th. The rules are a little different but Trump is still out performing Romney. Romney lost.
Unfortunately, I don’t think the loyal base of Trump supporters is quite as large as it needs to be for a general election. It is large enough to win the primaries. But democrats that don’t like Hillary are going to be faced with who they like less. And Republicans actually HAVE to be motivated to go vote. Hillary wins in a turnout battle, hands down. We just no longer have the numbers with all the dependents there are out there that will be bused to polling stations.
In the General Election, for the Republican Candidate to win two things HAVE to happen. 1.) Typically Democratic Voters need to be somewhere between disinterested and anti-Hillary & 2.) Typically Republican voters need to be energized against Hillary AND energized FOR a candidate.
If both of those criteria are not met, Hillary WILL be the next President. The question is, will Trump be able to expand his support beyond the following he has now when the General Election comes around. If not, Republicans will not turn out to vote. It will be 2012 all over again. Obama was not popular. He was a terrible President and Republicans did not turnout to vote for Romney.
Trump will get the delegates, esp since it appears he will win Florida.
How many delegates are available from this weekend Primaries.?
Trump will have the majority of delegates in 8 states as required by rule 40 after Saturday.
Trump already has 6.
Cruz has 1.
Rubio 0
I saw an interesting stat that indicated Cruz has won 3 of the 4 closed primaries so far, while Trump has won the open primaries. And we’re now going into a period where it’s mostly closed primaries. It’ll be interesting to see if that trend continues.
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