Posted on 02/19/2016 7:42:27 AM PST by Zenjitsuman
Cruz’s short-term dilemma has received plenty of attention: Donald Trump is on the verge of a big victory in the South Carolina Republican primary, according to most polls, and could easily capture all 50 of the Palmetto State’s delegates. And if Cruz can’t beat Trump in South Carolina — a Southern state with a large proportion of evangelical and very conservative voters, Cruz’s supposed bread and butter — what “SEC Primary†states can he win on Super Tuesday, March 1?
But Cruz also faces a longer-term, potentially more devastating math problem that has received less attention: The states that are his most natural fits — those with the highest proportions of evangelical voters — are also the least likely to award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis. In other words, Cruz’s votes may not translate into delegates nearly as efficiently as his rivals’
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-republican/
He could fix it if he uses COMMONCORE.
Dammit Jim, I’m a lawyer, not a mathematician!
Thanks... I have to admit, Nate’s system has performed pretty well. This is the RIGHT way to project. With probability bands. It may look cowardly. But, it reflects reality.
Disagree. While that matters to some people, it’s just not a big enough deal, nationwide, to move votes and delegates.
This article is why a vote for Cruz is a vote for the status quo every bit as much as a vote for Bush. The GOPe constructed this primary calendar in order to blunt the campaign of exactly the Cruz type of candidate. Very conservative and evangelical voters going for an “insurgent” ideologically conservative candidate is the plan. Trump is the only candidate capable of blowing up the plan.
Wow! Based on the link!
Trump has a huge math problem too. In a two race both Cruz and Rubio (i.e. Cruz v Trump or Rubio v Trump), Trump get his butt handed to him. I don’t remember the Rubio number, but if its just Cruz v Trump, Trump loses by 16pts.
Sad trumpeters...y’all better hope Bush, Rubio, et al, stay in the race.
He could fix it if he uses COMMON CORE.
That appears to be the math system used by Murdoch’s NBC/WSJ push polls.
There are many strong conservatives in SC. They don’t count for much in the primaries due to the fact that Dems can vote in the Rep primary. I have heard through some campaign volunteers that, unofficially, as much as 20-25% of Trumps support is coming from Dem crossovers, although that seems a bit high. I also know that in my own little county in NC, there is an operation underway for D’s to register as I’s for the primary and they are encouraging them to vote Trump.
I don’t believe anyone will hit the magic number, and there will be a brokered convention, then all hell will break loose.
According to what poll? NBC/WSJ is not credible. Has no internal data and contradicts all other polls from same time period. Trump is dominating Cruz in every demographic.
Not at all. If Ted is successful at reassembling the Reagan Coalition, he wins.
Something that may sink in even more to the evangelical heavy states to come up: Donald has proposed to fix the Roe v. Wade problem in a more direct manner than, AFAIK, any politician to date.
Call it unicorns and snake oil, but you can’t fault Trump for not being bold, and this isn’t even out of the mouth of some “fire baptized” fundamentalist or rock ribbed Catholic. It’s out of the pedestrian liberal PCUSA Trump.
Sounds like he really truly wants to win.
I believe they will stay in the race because they hate Cruz. They’d rather see Trump possibly destroy the country than see Cruz awarded for being what THEY perceive to be a traitor.
Hypothetical matchups are worth their printed weight in salt until such a race becomes real, which is to say, about 12 cents. I remember scores of hypotheticals foretelling both a dead heat and a win for Romney, between Romney and Obama.
The fact of the matter is that voters themselves are not very accurate when it comes to predicting what they would do. Plus there’s a huge reality-based information gap between when the questions are asked and when election day actually comes around. Anything can happen.
Which Trump is picking away at daily.
What really hit me is that he just yesterday proposed to do something about Roe v. Wade. Talk about poised to become YUUUUGE once the disbelief dissipates.
How conservative can they be if they keep voting in Lindsay Graham?
The Pope boosted Trumps numbers. Evangelicals are the only Christian Soldiers not taking orders from Rome.
Build the Wall Piss the Pope off.
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