Posted on 02/12/2016 4:48:29 AM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas
So says Bill Kristol, citing "a political operative whom I've known a long time and whose integrity I trust" and who's currently working with an organization, presumably a Super PAC, in SC. Is this data credible? Well, when we're bearing down on a key vote and we're starving for numbers in a state that hasn't been surveyed by a major pollster in three weeks, let's just say it's credible enough for a post:
Here's what the pollster found:
Trump 32
Cruz 26
Rubio 20
Bush 10
Carson 7
Kasich 2
Rich Lowry is hearing of similar numbers in another private poll...
The last poll of South Carolina to place Cruz within single digits of Trump was in mid-December. His smallest lead in January was 14 points. If you're looking for a reason to believe this data, though, that's easy: Pre-Iowa polls of SC didn't reflect that Cruz is now, more or less, the choice of evangelical Republicans. It stands to reason that he'd creep upward towards Trump in a state like South Carolina where the GOP electorate has many born-again Christians. If you're looking for a reason to disbelieve, that's easy too: Trump was polling at an average of 36 percent in SC in January and now, coming off his blowout in New Hampshire, he's ...four points lower? If that's borne out by other polls of SC this week, it'll be strong evidence that Trump really does have a ceiling of around a third of the party even when he's got "momentum" from a big win.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
If the election finishes like this, Cruz will be well-positioned to claim that he is the only candidate who can beat Trump, and he can consolidate the anti-Trump vote.
This could explain the Trump campaign's decision to play nice, but it may be too little, too late.
So Cruz is the establishment candidate? Sounds right
Hmmmm. Maybe Rubio is more alive than dead.
I’m a bit surprised at his 20%. But if so he might turn out to be the David to slay the Bush Goliath for good. Assuming that 20& to 10% margin holds.
Anything that doesn’t declare Trump as our sole national treasure must be fake.
Trump using the p word in public was a huge mistake.
His campaign realizes it but the damage is done.
What a crude man.
Can you imagine if Obama uses the p word in a rally, he would be killed on this site.
When the cult leader does it, the cultists make excuses.
Cruz will take full advantage, I don’t think SC voters will support a low life when a real conservative is on the ballot.
A Bill Kristol friend of a friend poll... Ya ok.
Not surprised it’s close. They like conservative candidates in SC.
-— Fake poll, none of the polls have come out yet, this is Bill Kristol making up polls, last poll to come out of S.C. was January 23, 2016... -—
This is a private poll. Rich Lowry tweeted:
Rich Lowry ✔ @RichLowry
There’s this, fwiw, plus a campaign I talked to yesterday says they have a 5-10 point lead for Trump over Cruz in SC https://twitter.com/teaparty321/status/697858949773570048 …
The reason why we haven’t heard about private polling before in this election is that there is a dearth of public polls in SC.
A bit stuck on the “p” word arentcha? The word is pussy by the way. And it is a word that was used to describe Ted Cruz because well...
Kristol, a man of little integrity, vouches for the integrity of his unnamed source. No thanks, I’ll wait.
It’s not close, sorry.
It's literally Bill Kristol reporting what he was allegedly told by someone who has a poll that he will not publish, with no details of sample size, who was polled, who was doing the polling, just Bill Kristol.
After SC it will be Trump, Cruz and Rubio. The RINOcracy has run out of options.
Cruz will also get a nice bump when Carson drops out.
Then there’s this from today over at the Hill
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/269229-poll-over-4-in-10-back-trump-nationwide
Donald Trump has over double the voter support of any Republican White House hopeful nationwide, according to a new poll.
Over 4 in 10 Americans are backing Trump’s campaign after his victory in New Hampshire’s GOP primary last Tuesday, according to a Morning Consult survey released Friday.
Trump earns 44 percent support from registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) comes in a distant second, with 17 percent.
South Carolina conservatives will render their verdict on Trump.
Can’t wait.
I do expect it to be very close in SC.
The Mystery Poll gets posted once again.
Lol, he drew the same crowds in Iowa and LOST.
The circus always brings out the crowd.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.