Posted on 01/31/2016 6:27:15 AM PST by AU72
The Republican establishment is in a dither — who are all these tradesmen and petit bourgeoisie who are planning to vote for this Donald Trump fellow? Do such people really exist?
And if they do, how many of the great unwashed are actually going to vote for this person with the 
outer-borough accent?
We’re going to get answers to all these questions shortly, aren’t we? Not that anybody really has any idea what’s going to happen in Iowa tomorrow night.
The only thing we know for sure about Iowa is who the media are going to declare as the winner, even if he finishes a distant third.
The declared winner will be Marco Rubio, whom the media were shamelessly touting even before the debate Thursday. Marco Rubio, the RINO flavor of the month.
But that’s just the GOPe/National Review spin. In New Hampshire nine days from now, I predict Trump is going to enjoy the kind of evening Boston City Councilor Dapper O’Neil used to forecast for himself.
“They won’t be countin’ my votes,†the Dap would say. “They’ll be weighin’ ’em.â€
And yet, the nominal leaders of the Granite State GOP don’t even know anybody who’s voting for this … this Trump parvenu?
Remember John Sununu, the one-time governor of New Hampshire and later Bush 41’s White House chief of staff? His son and namesake was a U.S. senator. Junior is now backing John Kasich, a clue as to just how far removed the Sununu family has drifted from the GOP grass roots.
A few days ago in New Hampshire, reporter Byron York ran into Mr. and Mrs. Sununu Sr. at an event and asked them if they personally knew anyone who supported Trump.
“They looked at each other for a minute, thinking, and finally said yes, there’s a guy down the street from them who does.â€
But Sununu wasn’t the only GOP bigfoot York found who claimed not to know any Trump voters. Friday night, I asked U.S. Rep. Frank Guinta if he’d seen the story about Sununu.
“Yeah, and I didn’t know what to make of it,†he said. “I go to events and the only candidate anybody wants to talk about is Trump.â€
It’s not just New Hampshire, either. Right now in Massachusetts, 3,000 new voters are registering 
every day.
These new voters are not Republicans. This week, the state had to send out 21,000 postcards to people who have registered as members of the “United Independent Party†— Evan Falchuk’s third party. The new voters saw the word “independent†and immediately checked the box.
They didn’t understand that the designation for independent is “unenrolled.†To prevent chaos on primary day, the state is warning members of the UIP they only have until Feb. 10 to re-register as “unenrolled.â€
Here’s another of what Deval Patrick used to call “anecdotes.†Last week on my show, Ann Coulter told me she’d run into a billionaire at a cocktail party who expressed Sununu-like consternation about the Republican race.
“We’re all for Jeb Bush, of course,†she recounted the billionaire telling her. “But it’s the strangest thing — most of the ‘help’ appears to be for Trump. And they’re all Hispanics!â€
Neither Sununu nor Ann Coulter’s billionaire saw the story about the roundup of the MS-13 illegals in Boston. Check out the nicknames of all of Jeb Bush’s valedictorians:
“Psycho … Violento … Terrible … Crazy … Muerto … Animal … Renegado … Violento (again) … Sangriento … Demento.â€
I read all those names over the air Friday night. A texter from the 603 area code responded:
“The only nickname any of them should have is 
‘Deporto.’ â€
A Trump voter, I’m going to guess. And I’ll bet he’s never met John Sununu Sr., either.
I don’t really understand the big deal about Iowa. Huckabee won a caucus there and so did Santorum.
They think IA and NH affects Super Tuesday. In my book it only affects ST IF a candidate drops out before that.
How many people vote in the Iowa caucuses?
I would expect Trump to do well in the NE states.. NY values and all.
Can’t read anything without all those stupid symbols. About to give up on FR
I think Iowa creates the perception that the election is real and causes more people to start paying attention. When Huck and Santorum won, it woke people up to whether this was who they wanted as their candidate. Same when the “Dean Scream” happened, people went “holy crap, THIS is our guy?”. And of course it’s really like a big poll, due to the very small participation rate, and Iowa obviously is not a representative sample of the entire country.
On the other hand, analysis shows that the eventual nominee correlates strongly with being one of the top two in Iowa, the winner in NH, and a strong lead in national polls. This correlation was proven for both R and D’s over a number of election cycles. So Trump is in an excellent position regardless of Iowa, unless he were not to come in #1 or 2, which is pretty unlikely.
I don’t really understand the big deal about Iowa. Huckabee won a caucus there and so did Santorum.
I joke that Iowa is the Vatican of primaries. Cruz boast how many Elmer Gantry’s endorsed him. I didn’t know Pastor’s were even allowed to do that.
Your right IOWA hasn’t picked a winner in 16 years now. Going back they didn’t pick Reagan who went on to win a landslide. Ohio is much better as a place that can predict winners. Here we are obsessing about Ethanol when most states have more important things on their mind, Jobs, heathcare, illegals.
You’re right about ethanol. It is well established in Iowa, a big part of the economy, and aside from the rapid few it’s not an issue anyone cares about. Cruz was an idiot to even discuss it when there are much more urgent concerns on peoples, minds, but he’s too driven by ideology to see that. Half of what these primaries do is define the issues that will be important in the election and ethanol isn’t going to be one of them. Immigration, strengthening our military, dealing with the world from a position of strength instead of apologizing and bowing, and creating an environment for job growth in the US are what people care about and Donald Trump has identified and elevated every one of them. No laundry list of wonky “plans”, just big broad strokes that hit the right and most important issues. That’s leadership.
I watched crazy Beck for about 10 minutes last night and of course is was all Trump. Trump this, Trump that. He said Trump was not a winner, not a good businessman, had ruined people’s live’s for years, and would be much richer if he had “used daddy’s money wisely and invested instead of throwing it away in real estate”. Then his two bumbling Morman sidekicks weighed in and said Trump supporters know nothing about the “real Trump” and could care less and all they want to do is associate with someone they think can win. Beck just might be committed when Cruz loses the nomination to Trump. He went off the deep end years ago. His obsession with Donald Trump is not healthy.
I think Iowa proves you can organize, NH proves you can garner public support. It used to be the money only took over after NH. Now with Super PACs the money is ominous from day one. Iowa and NH are of less value if money is this important from jump street.
Also, speaking from my NH experiences, it’s a fun time for our tiny but gorgeous state, so much so that it’s in the State Constitution that it has to be first. It becomes comical sometimes when they move the date up and up and up. I hope we get to keep it. I understand why some think we shouldn’t have it.
Iowa is the only show in town, otherwise no one would care.
I can’t believe Glenn Beck has any more listeners. He is a very strange man. With strange ideas that are sometimes conservative. But he’s very strange.
““They won’t be countin’ my votes,†the Dap would say. “They’ll be weighin’ ’em.†“
Reading this is like trying to read on a boat in heavy chop.
Just ignore the body and go straight to the link.
“With strange ideas that are sometimes conservative.”
He forces trying to be cute and funny out like flatulence.
Some of the time he’s ok, most of the time he’s just being
silly, preschool silly. Something happened to him around the
time he was on that “Oooo, spooky dude Soros” crusade . Like he was neutered, lost his gig at fox and all.
Howie is great!
He always has his ears and eyes open!
It seems to give real people a window to assess the candidates close up. Every Iowan has the opportunity to interview all of them. It's bringing out their character at the end.
Case in point: As the caucuses neared, Trump raised millions that will go to small Veterans support groups, and get directly to Veterans in need. Grandpa Donald let some Iowa kids run around in his jet. (Secret Service must have been having fits.)
Cruz mailed out the shaming letter, and forcefully defended it.
Huck and Santorum (since they didn't have anything better to do) showed solidarity with Trump for the cause of raising money for Veterans.
Marco stayed pretty classy with his campaign. They were both class acts.
Dr. Carson has done nothing to diminish his reputation as a doctor and respected person.
Sanders is showing the kids what it's like to party and protest like it's 1968.
hillary, out of all of them, seems the most insincere and tied to the past.
Would we have gotten these kinds of personal insights if not for Iowa?
READ the article at the link.
You bring up good points.
I wondered about allowing kids to run around on the jet. Maybe SS is the one that said no parents. Risk is greater with adults.
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