Posted on 01/31/2016 5:53:21 AM PST by Hojczyk
are anxiously awaiting the Iowa caucuses on Monday to find out if Donald Trump is the real deal or simply a media-hyped mirage.
GOP strategists expect between 150,000 and 185,000 voters will turn out, according to one senator who reviewed campaign projections. A big turnout would bode well for Trump who is expected to perform strongly among first-time voters.
Only a few months ago GOP senators were predicting that Trump would fade away, but with the first contest of the presidential primary only days away, they admit he has a good shot at winning the nomination.
One Republican senator, who requested anonymity to discuss the race, said Trump could outperform the polls because prospective voters have been more likely to announce their intention to vote for him when surveyed by a computer instead of a live pollster.
“You could make an argument that he’s going to way overperform because there’s a huge [polling] spread between if a person calls and a computer calls. People are far more likely to say they’re going to vote for Trump if a computer calls. They support Trump but are embarrassed to admit it,†he said.
The lawmaker noted that Ronald Reagan outperformed the polls in the 1966 California gubernatorial race because people were embarrassed to admit they planned to vote for a candidate who at the time was regarded as a B-list actor.
Trump’s campaign could also be set back by a brewing snowstorm moving in from Colorado expected to drop snow and sleet across Iowa starting Monday night.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
establishment, are anxiously awaiting the Iowa caucuses on Monday to find out if Donald Trump is the real deal or simply a media-hyped mirage.
GOP strategists expect between 150,000 and 185,000 voters will turn out, according to one senator who reviewed campaign projections. A big turnout would bode well for Trump who is expected to perform strongly among first-time voters.
Only a few months ago GOP senators were predicting that Trump would fade away, but with the first contest of the presidential primary only days away, they admit he has a good shot at winning the nomination.
Is that for real? What was he crying about???Sheesh, that pic is awful
All those people that show for his rallies are just a mirage? Who knew!!
A Trump win in Iowa will add at least 5% to his total vote in NH.
Before this year is over, we will know.
A win for Cruz is essential. A win for Trump is not essential but it shortens the process.
Translation.... Establishment is freaking out.
I went back over the IOWA results for the last several years and realized one thing. Winning there does not correlate directly with winning the nomination. It does give supporters a boost of spirits, and maybe a boost in donations to the winner.
If Trump and Cruz finish 1-2, as the latest polls says, they will each gain approximately 7 +/- first round votes at the convention.
When I saw the picture of Trump with Huckabee and Santorum at his debate alternative event I had a perfect caption for after the general in November.
“The winners of the last three Iowa Caucus presidential campaigns, none of whom went on to win the nomination.”
From the article: “A big turnout would bode well for Trump who is expected to perform strongly among first-time voters.”
And the GOP has a problem with that? Wow, no wonder they keep losing.
I hope Trump wins Iowa so we can close this primary once and for all and focus on the General.
“The winners of the last three Iowa Caucus presidential campaigns, none of whom went on to win the nomination.â€
Different with Trump, Huck and Santorum were not winners of New Hampshire or South Carolina.......Trump is a game changer.
The reader is supposed to interpret “first time voter” as “person who doesn’t know what the hell they’re doing”. Its just a way to excuse the failure of the Establishment candidate anyway.
Bush looks like he’s been hanging around Beck too much.
A Trump nomination will be the end of what’s left of the Republican Party.
Praise the Lord, finally the end of the Republican party.
Hey, in the wintertime, a boost of spirits works for me!
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