Posted on 01/05/2016 8:54:03 AM PST by SeekAndFind
There are too many current poll results at this point to ignore the impression that the GOP nomination battle in the early states is currently coming down to two people: Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. The one place where Cruz may be in the lead is Iowa, and that’s something of a head scratcher for those who follow the conventional rules of political warfare. The Texas Senator has come out time and time again in opposition to the Renewable Fuel Standard and ethanol subsidies (well… all subsidies to be honest) and that’s generally considered to be the equivalent of signing your own death warrant in Iowa. Investors Business Daily takes note of that this week, describing Cruz’s campaign in the corn fields as a profile in courage.
Ethanol has long been the dead man’s pass of presidential politics: No one makes it through Iowa without paying homage to the corn-based fuel now a $5 billion state industry. But this year may be different.
Ted Cruz is leading the Republican polls in the Hawkeye State despite his opposition to the federal mandate requiring gasoline to be blended with 10% ethanol. He considers the mandate to be a form of corporate welfare -- which it is…
Iowa produces nearly 30% of the nation’s ethanol. So it’s no surprise that the Renewable Fuels Association is running ads warning voters that Cruz is bad for Iowa farmers, and why pro-ethanol critics will trail him in an RV as he begins a six-day bus tour of the state this week.
As on other issues, Cruz’s position on ethanol contrasts with other politicians too willing to throw their free-market principles out the window when their buses pull into Cedar Rapids and Des Moines.
Reading through the entire piece I have to wonder if Cruz hasn’t taken a page out of Trump’s book this year and realized something which the rest of us have missed for a very long time now. We all know how politics is supposed to work, right? (Particularly at the national level.) There are rules one must follow or you are doomed to failure. It’s how the system works. But Trump seemed to have figured out that the rule book was largely a relic of the past before he even stepped in the ring. And at least in Iowa, Cruz is essentially the only one to have taken the same approach.
Everyone: “You can’t win Iowa without the support of the Renewable Fuels Association.”
Cruz: “Oh, really? Let’s put that theory to the test.”
Even if he takes first place in Iowa, Ted Cruz will face some tough sledding in the states that follow, but he will have shaken up the game permanently. If someone with a solid conservative record can come hit the trail there and tell people hard truths about government subsidies and still come out on top, the ethanol lobby is going to be left bleeding in the ditch alongside the political highway. That doesn’t mean that King Corn is going to go quietly into that good night, though. They have staked out the battle lines against Cruz and are dumping a ton of money into the effort to defeat him. (Bloomberg)
“Ted Cruz is dangerous to Iowa and thousands of Iowa jobs,†Eric Branstad, the group’s leader and the son of Iowa’s Republican governor, Terry Branstad, said in a statement. Referring to the Renewable Fuels Standard, a federal mandate on the amount of ethanol required in gasoline, the statement continued: “Our economy depends on a strong RFS, and Iowans count on $5 billion in wages thanks to it. Ted Cruz wants to kill their jobs, and we are going to make sure every Iowan knows that.â€
Cruz was one of only two candidates rated “bad†by the group. The other was U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, who has said he considers federal support for biofuels a form of corporate welfare. A bad rating was given to candidates who “stood against Iowa farmers and the RFS.â€
The ethanol lobby has been on the air with radio and television ads as well as direct mail campaigns trying to stop Cruz since he began his serious climb in the polls in early December. Despite all of that, Cruz is still sitting at either number one or number two in the Iowa polls, depending who you ask. So, the exit question for the morning follows: is this another place where what we thought we knew about politics was just wrong? Or, much like Trump, does Cruz have some sort of magic mojo that gives him a pass to do things which would still sink other candidates? Or to put it another way, has the game been changed entirely now or are Trump and Cruz simply the exceptions which prove the rule?
And they’ll likely react by doubling down.
Iowans are not that stupid. Those who remain in farming there know they can grow anything on their fertile land, and that ethanol is simply a subsidy to a few government-connected, crony capitalist agri-processors.
Good. It is time to cut all corporate welfare.
It’s getting off such government teats that is the killer. It requires a view to what is ahead, and visionaries can easily get shouted down.
Still, private (not government) think-tanking about such things could probably prove useful. Brainstorm Iowa about what would it do if it wasn’t growing ethanol corn for gasoline. Other than groan and moan about the lost market. Export markets would be one thing I’d ask about, and China has a growing appetite for things that America produces well in that category. Do the math, see if it actually makes sense.
If it does... now here is where I am being a rascal, but tough cornstalks... FEED THE IDEA TO DONALD TRUMP.
Not kidding. Yes, he came out in favor of the status quo, but that almost certainly reflects a shallow level of thinking, as if Iowa had nothing better to do. Give Trump a better idea and just watch him bulldog it.
“Give Trump a better idea and just watch him bulldog it.”
I’m yet to hear Trump proclaim “drill here, drill now”. (though I am a Trump supporter regardless)
Did I miss something, or is he not for increasing domestic oil production? Seems one of the best ways to defund the middle east.
Well nobody knows til caucus night. I would be a little nervous about it if I were Ted Cruz.
This might be another excellent proposal... I’d take Trump at face value, that he wants to deal. If he only sees narrow slices of proposals (e.g. Jeff Sessions and his 2nd amendment ideas) then that’s all he has to deal with. I’d like to see more conservative/moderate politicians or even activists bend his ear. Sounds like people are slow to believe what he has said. The common politician wants to sell an agenda. Donald is compiling an agenda.
I think Trump is pretty cool about it, not without reason either. For the first thing, the numbers getting presented for him are usually GOP numbers. But he is hauling in indies and Democrats in almost equal quantities, an area where someone like Cruz is down in the noise.
It’s up to the GOP if it wants to take into account a bigger tent than it has ever had in the past. If Trump leaves a good taste in people’s mouth, he might get people to switch parties.
LOL! At least they’re earning their $15/hr.
Trump is not deep in thought. He could be a guy at the corner bar. Anyone who saw him trash Scalia and support affirmative action must have realized that.
I’ve grow a LOT of corn over the years,I think that the worst possible use for the corn is for it to be made into ethanol.(Unless we’re planning on drinking it)
The people of Iowa enjoy a good steak on occasion. The cost of beef has been driven up by using corn for fuel. Ethanol cost more to produce than it’s worth and if subsidies go away beef prices should drop.
The ethanol subsidy is a Carter-era anachronism. When we had a grain embargo on the Soviets, farmers were stuck with silos of rotting corn, and the ethanol subsidy was a stopgap measure to make sure it would be used for something. What's the justification for it nearly 40 years later?
I’m sure Trump is nervous but the news out from Survey Monkey today showing Trump leading in evangelical support nationally is good news for Trump. And Trump was smart enough to give the ethanol folks a nod.
Exactly.Hogs and chickens consume corn too.Bring down the price of meat,people need a good supply of protein at a cost they can afford.
I suspect most Iowans view the ethanol producers like they do that relative who has a government employee that brags about what a great job and pension they have while private sector employees have to struggle. They secretly hate them for it and love the prospect that their cushy gig gets eliminated.
>>Yes, he came out in favor of the status quo, but that almost certainly reflects a shallow level of thinking...<<
On a matter of policy?...What a surprise!
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