Posted on 12/25/2015 5:55:12 AM PST by Kaslin
About 15 years ago, on Christmas Eve, our family departed from the traditional American Jewish observance of the holiday (ordering Chinese takeout) and elected to find an open restaurant. We drove to the local city center (or what passes for it in suburbia) and were stunned to find that not only were all of the restaurants open; they were packed.
I had pictured my Christian friends and neighbors at home, gathered around the table, Norman Rockwell-style, eating goose or ham or whatever gentiles eat, bathed in the twinkling lights of decorated trees. In fact, I liked to think of them that way, and finding crowds treating Christmas Eve as just another night was almost a sacrilege.
Americans have long resisted the secularizing trend of Western Europe. In many Western European countries, churches stand virtually empty on Sundays and few profess belief in God (37 percent in the United Kingdom; 27 percent in France; 28 percent in the Netherlands). In the United States, according to Gallup, 92 percent said they believed in God in as recently as 2011, which was down only 4 points from the 1944 response.
If belief in God has hardly budged in the post-World War II era, religious life has steadily declined. Pew reports that just since 2007, the number of Americans who identify as Christian has dropped by 8 points, from 78.4 percent to 70.6 percent. A bit more than one point of that change is attributable to the growth of other faiths, but most is accounted for by the increase in those who are unaffiliated. Among the unaffiliated, the big story is the young.
Great-Grandma and Great-Grandpa's generation, born between 1928 and 1945, is 85 percent Christian (57 percent Protestant and 24 percent Catholic). Their baby-boom children are 78 percent Christian. The Generation Xers are 70 percent Christian, and millennials are between 57 and 56 percent Christian depending on when they were born. Americans are dropping out of church, marrying outside the faith they were raised in and switching confessions at record rates. In 2014, 22.8 percent of American adults described themselves as unaffiliated with any church.
The loss of congregants has been most marked among mainline Protestants and Catholics, but evangelical churches have declined, too (at a slower pace).
What does this mean for politics? It's good news for the Democrats. Religious observance, like marriage, is a good predictor of political preference. Adults with no religion lean Democrat by 36 points. Young, white evangelical Protestants lean strongly Republican. The more religious identification sags, the fewer young Republicans there are.
Similarly, married adults tend to vote Republican, while singles, especially single women, lean heavily Democrat. Fifty-three percent of married women voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 (there is also overlap between religious identification and the tendency to wed). But marriage is declining. Whereas 65 percent of American adults were married in 1980, just 51 percent of adults were married in 2012. Among the 20- to 34-year-old cohort, 57 percent are never-marrieds.
Republicans who imagine that these changes don't affect voting might want to look at party ID. Between 1992 and 2014, the number of adults who said they were Democrats fell from 33 to 32 percent. The number who called themselves independent rose from 36 to 39 percent. And the number who identified as Republicans dropped from 28 to 23.
The 2016 election is an opportunity for many voters who would naturally be inclined to vote Democrat due to their age, ethnicity, region, lack of religious commitment and marital status to consider a Republican. It's always difficult for the same party to hold the White House for three consecutive terms, and Hillary Clinton is widely mistrusted.
But the Republican Party, judging by the polls so far, seems more determined to "send a message" than to choose a candidate who can win. Marco Rubio is practically conjured from central casting to win this election. He carries a big swing state. He has a great immigrant story. He is deeply knowledgeable on the issues; he's a superb debater and a tea party favorite, and (with the exception of immigration -- if you accept the premise that building a wall and deporting illegals is the conservative position) he is a firm conservative. Unlike Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, he articulates conservative ideas without needlessly antagonizing or frightening independents.
Portions of the Republican base are ferociously determined to punish Rubio for his immigration stance (though it differed only slightly from Sen. Cruz's, and as for Trump's views, name the day). But the new Republican establishments -- talk radio, Twitter, Heritage Action -- are single-issue constituencies, and they seem to be in the driver's seat.
>>Portions of the Republican base are ferociously determined to punish Rubio for his immigration stance (though it differed only slightly from Sen. Cruz’s, and as for Trump’s views, name the day). But the new Republican establishments — talk radio, Twitter, Heritage Action — are single-issue constituencies, and they seem to be in the driver’s seat.
That “single issue” is stopping the Progressive takeover of America. It’s a pretty broad “single issue” but it is the alligator portion of the old saying, “When you are up to your ass in alligators, its hard to remember that your job was to drain the swamp.”
FYI Mona, we went out to eat last night and THEN went to church at 11 pm.
Immigration is the only debate-worthy issue, and the author of this piece still doesn’t understand Americans don’t want to bend over and take it anymore.
Hillary will eat him up like a mean old witch from a Grimm'm Fairy Tale.
That said, I think he is a good man and he has a very bright future, just not Nov 2016.
ANY of the Republican candidates will be better than Hillary.
Every Conservative who stays home on election day(s) with the excuse of "principal" or "conviction" is simply helping the Democrats.
"THE BEST IS THE ENEMY OF THE GOOD!"
Come primary and general, for God's sake vote for the least evil candidate!!!
he's a superb debater and a tea party favorite, and (with the exception of immigration -- if you accept the premise that building a wall and deporting illegals is the conservative position) he is a firm conservative.
For generations before Senator Ted Kennedy, there was no legal immigration at all. The reductio ad absurdum of unrestricted immigration is that 100 million Arabs come to the US, go on the dole and, in counties and states across the US, institute the antithesis of constitutional government - i.e., Sharia law. It is not at all clear that the current (elected!) POTUS has any animus against that. At all.So if you have any question about imposing some control on immigration, you are not conservative. In fact, the only question is whether or not you are sane.
It wasn't so long ago that I used to believe that fairy tale. It's now irrefutable that the 'rat party and the GOPe are two wings of the same party. I'll grant that the GOPe candidates are 'nicer' than the shrewish Hillary, but the end result would be the same.
Cruz all the way!
"Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"
I know this is hard to believe, but a Christmas tree has virtually nothing to do with a conviction for Christ. I could be wrong but I believe scholars think Christ was born sometime in the spring. December 25th was the Catholic church taking over the pagan midwinter festival. I have no quarrel with celebrating Christ’s birth on Dec 25th, but it is no requirement of my commitment to salvation through his grace.
No, it's approximately 9 months removed from Passover, and the idea was that Jesus was conceived around the same time of year that he died.
The Saturnalia was before Dec. 25th in any case, and "Dies Natalis Solis Invictus" is likely to have been the *pagans* trying to co-opt Christmas, not the other way around, since the evidence for it is about as old as that for Christmas on Dec. 25th.
I think Mona's takeoff point is a bit confused. Christmas Eve is not "the holiday," and most Christians would not think of their holidays as starting at sundown on the previous day, as Jews would. (Catholics sort of do, but only sort of. The big Christmas celebration is at midnight.)
Also in Germany the Christmas tree is decorated on Christmas eve while the kids are in Church, so they don't see the tree being decorated by the parents. It's the Christkindle (Christchild) who's decorating the tree and puts the presents under the tree. Then when everything is ready a little bell is rung and the candles are lit on the tree, when the kids are allowed the enter the room. I kept the tradition up when our children were smaller, but now they have their own traditions
About 15 years ago, on Christmas Eve, our family departed from the traditional American Jewish observance of the holiday (ordering Chinese takeout) and elected to find an open restaurant.
News Flash: Terrorism is the big issue in this election. Do a search
You are correct. Any of the republican Candidates are better than Hillary. Those who say no just want to vote for some third party candidate who has no chance whatsoever getting elected and by doing so they are throwing the election over to Hillary without even noticing it.
Mona Charen is conservative and is attracted to the Rubio package, and she appears to be prepared to overlook his compromised position on immigration and his sponsorship by the GOP-e.
She's lost sight of the fact that immigration is the ball game, that Bush and Obama both have worked to flood America with cheap-working hammer swingers ..... who will vote Democratic for the next 75 years.
The major source of illegal immigration is Mexico, where people are "socially conservative" in a way meant by demographers to mean that they hold fast to old patterns and values. If great-grandfather Victorio voted Socialist, for the Mexican PRD, then the great-grandson and his great-grandson will vote for the most socialist party they can find -- and that's the 'Rat Party. The Mexican and Mexican-American voter breaks 70% straight-ticket Democrat, and the Moslems vote 80% Democrat when they achieve the franchise.
THAT is why Obama is flooding the country with Mexican anchor babies and Moslem terrorists like the shark-eyed gun moll of San Bernardino, Tashfeen the Merciless.
And just "whom" would that be? (Thanks for warning us.)
I remember lighting the candles on my English grandparents' tree in 1952. It was very different. Popcorn chains, no flocking or spray-on 'snow' .... very pretty, very Engish.
And I very seriously hammered the strawberry tarts. My grandmother was a crackerjack pie-crust maker.
I would argue that any change, which results in removing D's from the government, is a good change. We know that the Republican party is a party made up of RINOs, moderates and conservatives. I would argue that it's easier for conservative Republicans to influence the Republican party as compared to influencing the Democrat party. Also, there will be pressure on any Republican President, regardless of political stripe, to cooperate with his/her party - a party that includes many conservatives.
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