New Iowa Poll Shows Trump with 31-26% Lead over Cruz

Overtime Politics ^ | 12/14/15 | Fred

[BigEdLB]

The Iowa Republican Caucuses are about 6 weeks away and 3 candidates are firmly positioning themselves to be among the handful left standing after Super Tuesday. Donald Trump still maintains a significant lead over Ted Cruz by 5 percentage points (31-26%), while Marco Rubio rounds out the 3 candidates with double digit support at 13%.

[BigEdLB]

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec8-12RepublicanCaucusPoll-Iowa.pdf
Total Results:
Donald Trump 31%
Ted Cruz 26%
Marco Rubio 13%
Ben Carson 8%
Rand Paul 6%
Jeb Bush 5%
Carly Fiorina 2%
John Kasich 1%
Chris Christie 1%
Other <1%
Undecided 4%

Looks like we have a new pollster to follow. This is from Monday. Just discovered it

[2ndDivisionVet]

When Don Trump has volunteers on the ground in all 99 counties like Ted Cruz has, these polls will be more believable.

[RightGuy]

Hey, Twofer - he does!

[MrEdd]

The guy insists Yeb! has climbed up to five percent. Not buying it.

[mkjessup]

Not even close. !Yeb is toast and everyone knows it, even him.

[libbylu]

I like that significant lead of 5 points with margin of error of 4.6%.

[DoughtyOne]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trumps-ground-game-iowa-soaring-aides-say-n445336

[georgiarat]

But it must still hurt Yeb! that Rand Paul is polling better than he.

[Hugin]

Caucuses are absurd anyway. Way too much time and energy is spent on IA every 4 years. To put it in perspective, Rick Santorum won last time with just under 30,000 votes. That's about the same as a good sized Trump rally.

[georgiarat]

But it must still hurt Yeb! that Rand Paul is polling better than he.

[DoughtyOne]

I’m not sure that’s as good a thing as you might think.

It could wind up with Trump at 35 and Ted with 21.

[HereInTheHeartland]

“When Don Trump has volunteers on the ground in all 99 counties like Ted Cruz has, these polls will be more believable.”

Both Trump and Cruz have good organizations here in Iowa.

[libbylu]

I don’t mind 7 weeks to go. Lots of things will probably still happen. Just curious to call it significant.
Glad to see Rubio in the hole. He is one of my two detestable senators.

[be-baw]

If Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire it’s over. He’s the only one who could lose both and still win the nomination.

[LS]

Don’t need all 99 counties. Just need enough counties to win.

[2ndDivisionVet]

You play it that way and we’ll play it this way.

[rovenstinez]

Ted Cruz has a dad that is Heavy Weight, influence. He is working the folks in Iowa with great class. Don’t underestimate him. He will pull it off.

[deport]

I agree that Iowa is a different game than in most states. But some info I’ve read indicates
that Trump has several paid staffers lead by Chuck Laudner working the state. Now how effected
they will be is to be seen yet. I’ve read that Cruz has some four paid staffers, don’t know
if that is accurate or not.

Regardless it becomes who will attend the caucus events. I never thought Trump would have a
real impact. But with the crowds he draws to his events where they come spend four hours of
so, then if they are motivated to do the same on caucus night it might be a close race.
We’ll see.

[CA Conservative]

Looks like we have a new pollster to follow.

Never heard of them, so it is hard to gauge their accuracy. There is not much description of their methodology or how they determine a "likely" voter pool. We will see if the other polls are in line with this one or if it is an outlier.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Donald Trump has people on the ground in all 99 counties and a precinct captain in all 1167 precincts that have all vowed to have 40 people each ready to hit the caucuses on caucus night. Not to mention Trump’s people are holding how to caucus classes for the newbies that are registering for the the first time. Chuck Laudner got the win for Santorum and he will get the win for Trump. After that its going to be a domino effect.