Predicting which party will win the White House: follow the numbers

Boston Globe ^ | 11/15/2015 | By Eric Fehrnstrom

[SeekAndFind]

It's hard to keep up with the twists and turns in this presidential race. Hillary Clinton under fire on Benghazi! Ben Carson has a theory about the pyramids! Bernie Sanders wrote about rape fantasies! Donald Trump . . . well, Donald Trump! Figuring out which headline will have the biggest impact on the general election is a bit of a parlor game. But what if they have no impact at all?

After the 2012 election, political scientists John Sides and Lynn Vavreck wrote a book called"The Gamble"that looked at the cause of President Obama's victory over Mitt Romney. They sifted through the quantitative voting and polling data and concluded that the supposedly game-changing events --- like Romney's "47 percent" comment, or Obama's poor debate performance in Denver -- had no effect on the outcome.

What mattered, they found, was the direction of the economy. The decline in unemployment, and the growth in GDP, was just enough for Obama to make a credible case for his reelection. Everything else was just noise.

Likewise, there are two statistical measurements that, more than anything else, will determine whether the White House changes parties in 2016: Obama's job approval and the direction of the country, measured by whether voters think we're on the right track or the wrong track.

In terms of job approval, Obama has been under 50 percent for most of his presidency. The most recent Real Clear Politics monthly polling average says just 45 percent of Americans approve of the job Obama has been doing, while 52 percent disapprove. If the president remains net negative, voters should expect to hear a lot from Republicans on how the Democratic nominee is really running for Obama's third term.

[kalee]

Western Illinois University predicts Bernie Sanders will win and that his VP will be O’Malley. They are calling a blow-out for the Dems, over 400 electoral votes. They have been correct in their predictions since 1976 iirc.

[FlingWingFlyer]

Clinton and her sidekick, Huma Weiner, will continue the Kenyan’s importation of Muzzie terrorists into America. We better pray that Clinton isn’t elected.

[Albion Wilde]

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Trump headlines with links on FR, from 2:15 PM to 11:59 PM EST, 11/14/15

Predicting which party will win the White House: follow the numbers
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Mark Levin Blasts Donald Trump and Marco Rubio: Stop Smearing Ben Carson and Ted Cruz!
Ann Coulter on Paris Attack: 'Donald Trump Was Elected President Tonight' (160 replies)

[Impy]

For open seat races, historically the outgoing President has needed high approval to pass the office along to another from his party.

Last non-incumbent dem elected to succeed a dem, James Buchanan.

[Optimist]

a year is a long time in politics. GHW Bush lost an 80% approval within a year.

[SunkenCiv]

Figuring out which headline will have the biggest impact on the general election is a bit of a parlor game. But what if they have no impact at all? ...They sifted through the quantitative voting and polling data and concluded that the supposedly game-changing events -- like Romney's "47 percent" comment, or Obama's poor debate performance in Denver -- had no effect on the outcome. What mattered, they found, was the direction of the economy. The decline in unemployment, and the growth in GDP, was just enough for Obama to make a credible case for his reelection. Everything else was just noise.

Speaking of noise, eh? This is just "it's the economy, stupid"... unless the researchers are claiming psychic powers, there's no data in existence that could establish their thesis. I suspect the reality is simpler to understand... Voter Triage!

1. Straight Ticket Party-line Voters (largely Demagogic Party)
2. Probable voters who decide whom they support based on either a single position, speech, event, or (yes) headline) but can't remember what or why by election day
3. the Undecideds, who either ultimately fail to vote, or pile on to be on the winning side (I hope this is a small number, but we all know it exists), or make up their minds very late in the campaign season for some other reason or reasons.

[SunkenCiv]

Nice!

[Vision Thing]

If so, Western Illinois University needs to follow up with a new prediction: Will the states that vote for President sanders cease to exist before his first term ends in 2020?

[Albion Wilde]

“Muslim murders in Paris just elected Trump or Cruz. Security is number one.”

For now. Despite the ratings bump, the press will quickly ignore covering it, if they see it hurting Democrats chances.

And that's why so many Americans are now reading DailyMail.com out of London. It's a difficult site in many ways; croweded with tabloid fodder and atrocious lack of copy-editing; but the breaking news and the huge photography are up-to-the-minute. And they have a comments section.

[3D-JOY]

This requires Hillary to be indicted and drop out...Biden not jump in, or win and voter fraud to a whole new level...Yep, probably correct...scary isn’t it?

[johncocktoasten]

I once had a Western Illinois alum tell me that, back in the day, if you weren’t smart enough to go to college, they sent you to a Western Illinois.

[Albion Wilde]

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[kalee]

http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/Western-Illinois-University-Predicts-Bernie-Sanders-Victory-in-2016-346130992.html

[ForYourChildren]

Thanks for the ping!

[Impy]

Sanders has next to no chance of beating Hillary because dem powers that be know he can’t win the general election baring a major F up by the GOP nominee.

Neither party is likely to get near 400 EVs, especially the democrats, 400EVs for Sanders is laughable.

O’Malley is a poor VP choice for either Hillary or Sanders, I see no reason either would even consider him.

They also have Bush as the GOP nominee, that ship has sailed. And someone called “Lex Green” getting 10% of the popular votes, Libertarian nominee for IL Govevnor last election I think. He won’t be the LP nominee for President and the LP nominee won’t get as much as 1% in all likelihood.

I must call “fail” on whatever the hell this “simulation” of theirs is, and what it appears to be is a farce. Sanders is who THEY want cause they don’t want to pay tuition.

Seems they have Bush winning Illinois and VP-elect O’Malley’s homestate of Maryland (and swing states IA and NV) amidst getting his butt kicked, and they say this is only the third one of these they’ve done.

http://www.wiu.edu/news/newsrelease.php?release_id=13059

This is officially the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen (this week).

[Sgt_Schultze]

Here's a link that lands behind the paywall.

[kaehurowing]

The problem is that Obama was just as unpopular at the end of his first term, and he still won reelection. I would have thought it was impossible for him to be reelected, but Romney managed to pull that off.

Ironically, I don’t know a single person who voted for Obama the second time around, but it didn’t make any difference.

[kaehurowing]

Remember that every illegal who now can get a driver’s license is also registered to vote under the federal Motor Voter Act.

[goldstategop]

Yup. Their EC map makes no sense.

A landslide is rare in American history.

And if America is really poised to elect Sanders, its really descended into a cesspool.

In reality, a socialist won’t win anywhere outside New England and even that’s generous.

[Sivad]

What I remember about 2012 was that there was no
economy. I know that is true because the Dems would
never talk about it and GOP would never chide them
aboutique it.