Skip to comments.Predicting which party will win the White House: follow the numbers
Posted on 11/14/2015 8:33:50 PM PST by SeekAndFind
It's hard to keep up with the twists and turns in this presidential race. Hillary Clinton under fire on Benghazi! Ben Carson has a theory about the pyramids! Bernie Sanders wrote about rape fantasies! Donald Trump . . . well, Donald Trump! Figuring out which headline will have the biggest impact on the general election is a bit of a parlor game. But what if they have no impact at all?
After the 2012 election, political scientists John Sides and Lynn Vavreck wrote a book called"The Gamble"that looked at the cause of President Obama's victory over Mitt Romney. They sifted through the quantitative voting and polling data and concluded that the supposedly game-changing events --- like Romney's "47 percent" comment, or Obama's poor debate performance in Denver -- had no effect on the outcome.
What mattered, they found, was the direction of the economy. The decline in unemployment, and the growth in GDP, was just enough for Obama to make a credible case for his reelection. Everything else was just noise.
Likewise, there are two statistical measurements that, more than anything else, will determine whether the White House changes parties in 2016: Obama's job approval and the direction of the country, measured by whether voters think we're on the right track or the wrong track.
In terms of job approval, Obama has been under 50 percent for most of his presidency. The most recent Real Clear Politics monthly polling average says just 45 percent of Americans approve of the job Obama has been doing, while 52 percent disapprove. If the president remains net negative, voters should expect to hear a lot from Republicans on how the Democratic nominee is really running for Obama's third term.
(Excerpt) Read more at bostonglobe.com ...
Trump will blast her for a month
with all due respect, if you’re going to excerpt, why not excerpt the conclusion or main point?
What is the gist of the article? Which Party and why?
Don’t want to sign up with Lefty Boston Globe...
The Real Clear Politics average also says 64 percent of all voters think the country is on the wrong track. Only 27 percent believe we are headed in the right direction. As with job approval, if this number stays inverted, itâs going to be difficult for a Democrat to win no matter what.
But a sharp rise in cooking the unemployment data
And about that GDP...2008 to 2013 - 0.73%
Not exactly roaring
RE: What is the gist of the article? Which Party and why?
Two things that matter most:
1) Obama’s job approval and
2) the direction of the country, measured by whether voters think weâre on the right track or the wrong track.
In summary - it’s most likely a Republican year given the factors listed by poster above.
Muslim murders in Paris just elected Trump or Cruz. Security is number one.
The democrats will not win the White House. The true battle for the presidency is in the republican primary.
Other pundits have recently been keying in on the Presidential job approval rating as an indicator.
I think it reflects the Dems looking for the right metrics for best spending their money.
Ideally, they want to balance forcing as much of the unpopular leftist agenda down the public’s throat, while still being able to squeak out electoral victories.
Perhaps they might back off jamming the agenda toward the end of 2016, to move that approval rating temporarily over 50%.
Trump should start blasting her NOW.
That’s what I’ve been hearing
Yes. Immigration was a winning issue even before the ISIS attack - now you can push national security to the forefront of an economic/crime issue that already had major traction.
National Security? Only an idiot would import people that are prime candidates for Jihad. Winner.
Jobs? Already a dismal market - why are we bringing unskilled labor for jobs that do not exist? Do you want young people to have the opportunity for entry level jobs? Winner.
Debt? Why add to the national debt by importing people who will take more than they give? Winner.
Education? Our public schools are already struggling. Why bring in students who will require more attention and effort? Immigrants will take away grants from our own kids for college. This hurts the education of our children! Winner.
Crime? The statistics speak for themselves. Look no further than the Federal prison population or the demographics of California/Texas prisons! Winner.
Health Care? The statistics speak for themselves. In areas with high immigrant populations healthcare is worse. Immigrants are far more likely to use public healthcare funding. Winner.
Border Security? Do we want terrorists sneaking over the border to attack us? Winner.
It’s a multifaceted issue that wins across the board - especially with blue collar democrats. This is going to be a crossover election if the cards are played correctly.
The Democrats will go all out with voter fraud, just like 2012. Will it be enough? Only if self-proclaimed “true conservatives” stay home again.
Why would anyone living on freebies vote Rep. I think some of them vote more then once.If we had voter ID the Rep would have a chance.
The Democrats will go all out with voter fraud, just like 2012. Will it be enough? Only if self-proclaimed âtrue conservativesâ stay home again.
“Muslim murders in Paris just elected Trump or Cruz. Security is number one.”
Despite the ratings bump, the press will quickly ignore covering it, if they see it hurting Democrats chances. Other incidents are likely to occur before the election though, so the security issue could end up being the big one. Perhaps they will schedule an October surprise, like killing the ISIS leader, to try to flip the issue at the last minute.
Beyond Presidential approval and right track/wrong track, there are a bunch of issues that could really hurt the Dems if they become the issues of concern - security, immigration, economy, jobs, obamacare, emails, corruption.
Women, blacks, Hispanics, Asians for Hillary. White men for our side. I hope it's just wishful thinking - Hillary is disgusting and pathetic and these are not normal times.
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