Posted on 11/06/2015 7:48:21 AM PST by xzins
A few factors have increased the chances of a multi-ballot convention.... 17 candidates entered the race and 15 remain.
...five contenders who today appear to have the message, money, organization and poll numbers to play the long game: neurosurgeon Ben Carson, real-estate magnate Donald Trump, Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
What complicates the picture is the GOP’s rule requiring the 28 (states+) that vote before March 15 to award their delegates proportionally. The exception is South Carolina, whose winner-take-all primary was grandfathered in. Add in the eight states voting on or after March 15 that also award their delegates proportionally, and some 60% of the convention’s likely total of 2,470 will be allotted that way.
Then comes the Ides of March, when winner-take-all contests kick off. On March 15 five states and one territory, awarding 361 delegates, will vote. Of these, 292 will be winner-take-all.
April 26, when five northeastern states vote, with Pennsylvania’s 71 delegates as the big prize. The final primaries will be held June 7, when 294 delegates, all but 21 chosen by winner-take-all, will be at stake. California and New Jersey will dominate that day.
Still, with only around 40% of the delegates chosen in winner-take-all contests, they may be splintered enough that no candidate commands an outright majority. A complicating factor is that roughly 8% of the delegates will arrive at the convention unbound, free to vote for their choice of candidate. The delegates from Wyoming (29), North Dakota (28) and Guam (9) will be officially uncommitted, as will all but 14 of Pennsylvania’s 71 delegates.
Moreover, GOP rules allow for the creation of “superdelegates,†... uncommitted delegates, 210 in all, could be the most fluid force in the convention if no candidate has locked in victory.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
And the majority of red state Republicans are awarded proportionally, and most of the winner-take-all states are blue.
That gives a delegate advantage to a moderate, and especially if one also considers the states that permit all cross-over voting and not just by independents.
So, hopefully conservatives can make up their minds early and settle on one... or 2 candidates at most.
Karl is still hopeful he can buy his way in.
Fox News Channel ought to dump Karl Rove...he has become as useless as Dcik Morris had become!!!
Yes and sadly the GOP is happy to proportion it’s delegates this way (especially by allowing the crossover voting in the “blue states.”)
No real mention of candidate issues, relevance to national problems, or even voters in the sense of actually responding to what they want.
To this fat tub of lard, all that matters are rules, manipulations thereof, and what can be done to cheat the system. All this to cheat a village idiot into the nomination and certain defeat by the Democrat he really loves to serve.
If providence had any semblance of justice, he’d succumb to a stroke and be gone from the scene.
All the work that the GOPe; RINOs; media have done to get Carson to knock out Trump (remember Carson wasn’t a republican until 2014) and now Rove is crapping his pants because we are on to him and the others...
What’s more funnier, The Trump Base and The Cruz Base are on to them also...so what are they going to do to get their ‘precious’ Hillary into obuma’s third term?
Rove hoping for a Heb comeback or a draft Mittens movement!
With Trump we have a unique candidate in that he possibly can win New York, Florida, Texas, and California. That would give him a large block of delegates.
Rasmussen has posted a report that 64% of likely Republican voters expect Trump to be their Presidential candidate next year. It is at the top of front page.
***************************************************
Trump Change: Most GOP Voters Still See Trump As Likely Nominee
It still looks like a “Donald†world as far as most Republican voters are concerned.
The latest Rasmussen Reports weekly Trump Change survey finds that 64% of Likely Republican Voters think Donald Trump is likely to...
Read more: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/#&panel1-1
” and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. “
More drivelings from the Bush Family Pet Pundit. As usual, he is off his meds again.
STFU Tokyo. You have no clue. You are now in Dick Morris territory. :-)
Confirmation from the horse’s mouth.
The GOPe is trying to engineer a deadlocked scrum which will allow them to hand the crown to Jeb at the convention.
Break that pledge, Trump.
I agree with you. The Evangelical vote should belong to Cruz. I thought Huckabee would be the problem with evangelicals, but it turns out it was Carson. I think Huckabee came across as an oddball at the Kim Davis rally and a lot of people saw it. He would have been miles ahead if he had shared the microphone with Cruz, Santorum, and anyone else who was standing up for religious freedom.
As it was he gave his “I have a jail” speech and looked a bit weird.
haha, the GOP Elite screwed themselves again!
Trump is the perfect candidate for blue state primaries. As evidence, polls show Trump is so far ahead in Connecticut nobody will be able to catch up.
I think they do intend to engineer a deadlocked convention if they don’t get one of their preferred candidates into the lead.
I sort of believe that, but they have 5 months to continuing the campaign against Trump. Rush believes they'd prefer Hillary to Trump.
At this point, a brokkered convention looks possible. If that happens, Trump can go in behind closed doors and simply tell the RNC that a check for about one billion is waiting for them if they give him the nomination. Its all over at that time.
The whores will fold like a cheap lawn chair.
I have absolutely no doubt that the party of stupid can and will find a loser nominee, even if it takes a dozen rounds of voting to do it.
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