Posted on 10/23/2015 6:06:56 AM PDT by expat_panama
That’s encouraging news, since the Halloween Indicator already carries decent odds of success. But when the stock market is riding a wave of momentum into Halloween — as it most definitely is this year, including another 200+ point rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.87% on Thursday — then the odds become even better.
The Halloween Indicator refers to the stock market’s seasonal tendency to produce its best returns between Halloween and May Day (the so-called “winter” months). This indicator is also known as “Sell in May and Go Away,” since those who mechanically follow it go to cash during the “summer” months (from May Day until the subsequent Halloween).
Notice from the chart above that the Indicator worked like a charm over the last year. Over the seasonally-favorable six-month period that began on Halloween 2014, the Dow gained 2.6% — versus a loss of 2.6% in the unfavorable summer months that began last May Day.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
Lets hope.
Golly, better & better. Yesterday's "stocks up in rising volume" is now seen by futures traders going up another 2%! Donno metals, they've been fading but we now got gold and silver at $1,172.90 and $16.01. On top of all that, no announcements to spoil the weekend. Plenty of news tho--
Credit Suisse: China Worries Are Going 'Through the Roof' - Biz Insider
Actually, Denmark Is Becoming More Like Us! - Tami Luhby, CNNMoney
No Amount of QE or Rate Control Can Fix What Is Sick - Jeff Snider, RCM
Why Aren't GOP Candidates Blaming the Fed? - Judy Shelton, CNBC
Big Tech Back in Vogue on Wall Street - Richard Waters, Financial Times
Perfect Storm Coming to Euro-Dollar by December? - Holly Ellyatt, CNBC
Keynes Comes to Canada - Paul Krugman, New York Times
Why Did Inexperience Triumph In Canada? - Reuven Brenner, Asia Times
How Trudeau Will Transcend Harper's Economic Legacy - Globe & Mail
Are the Saudis Being Forced to Pump More Oil? - William Watts, MW
Commodities Boom Is Dead. Long Live the Commodities Boom - BV
What could possibly happen?
Good news for speculators. Good luck to all.
But will there be a real gain for the year for investors?
Sure anybody who bought low can make a profit by selling high but what it the RoR for the year for a long term buy and hold investor?
Very few can ever time the market successfully.
This makes absolutely no sense; there is no connection to economic reality.
All the government statistics are fake. Perhaps we will get to the point where the stock market is essentially a roulette wheel controlled by the global elites.
So are we going to get a market surge if a nuclear bomb goes off?
The market is up over 4% for the last 12 months. Its down just a little for calendar year. I think there is a good chance it ends up for 2015.
The market is up for the last 12 months. Its down just a little for calendar year. I think there is a good chance it ends up for 2015.
It kind of reminds me of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator: If the an AFC team wins the Super Bowl, then a bear market is coming. But if an NFC team wins, then a bull market is coming.
I have read that this "prediction" has been correct 80% of the time. And, of course, it's just a coincidence, and therefore it's nonsense.
>> Very few can ever time the market successfully.
I time the market VERY successfully on a few stocks. ;-)
I don’t generally like to talk about the other ones.
I know and I know it can’t always be going up. That is a very unrealistic expectation sure to end in disappointment isn’t it?
You have to pick the measurement periods right I suppose.
Agree. All the government stats are fake...until they aren’t.
Actually, up just over 8% for the last 12 months and so you are correct of course.
I agreee..... just today to a year ago today right now... DJIA is up 4.6%. It is still down a little for calendar year. Who knows the future? Short term future and long term future are always two different things. Unless we want to believe (and it may be right to believe) but unless we want to believe that the “global collapse”... the economic ruin of the united states is here.... the long term expectation has to be based on the past. The past says the market goes up. Everything gets more expensive. Short term is very uncertain. But yeah, if we believe that economic Armageddon is upon us, then the past will have no relevance for long term or short term.
Follow high quality Dow and S&P companies, then take advantage of buying opportunities that come along every year or two?
What are you, some kind of a nut?!?!?!?!
/sarc
>> What are you, some kind of a nut?!?!?!?!
I’m doomed! :-)
Hope is not a strategy.
>> it can’t always be going up. That is a very unrealistic expectation sure to end in disappointment isn’t it?
Yes and no.
The share price of companies that actually build wealth — and there are more than a few of those — can in theory continue to rise indefinitely, by definition, because they’re building wealth.
But there are obviously cases where there is no wealth being built yet stock prices rise due to perception of increased wealth and pure speculation on rising price trends. Those increases are NOT sustainable.
Just my 2c worth but it’s reasoning based on sound economic principles.
Neither is despair.
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