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Everything’s Deflating And Nobody Seems To Notice
Zero Hedge - Automatic Earth ^ | 10-22-2015 | Tyler Durden - Ilargi Meijer

Posted on 10/22/2015 10:19:33 AM PDT by blam

Tyler Durden
10/22/2015

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

Whenever we at the Automatic Earth explain, as we must have done at least a hundred times in our existence, that, and why, we refuse to define inflation and deflation as rising or falling prices (only), we always get a lot of comments and reactions implying that people either don’t understand why, or they think it’s silly to use a definition that nobody else seems to use.

-More or less- recent events, though, show us once more why we’re right to insist on inflation being defined in terms of the interaction of money-plus-credit supply with money velocity (aka spending). We’re right because the price rises/falls we see today are but a delayed, lagging, consequence of what deflation truly is, they are not deflation itself. Deflation itself has long begun, but because of confusing -if not conflicting- definitions, hardly a soul recognizes it for what it is.

Moreover, the role the money supply plays in that interaction gets smaller, fast, as debt, in the guise of overindebtedness, forces various players in the global economy, from consumers to companies to governments, to cut down on spending, and heavily. We are as we speak witnessing a momentous debt deleveraging, or debt deflation, in real time, even if prices don’t yet reflect that. Consumer prices truly are but lagging indicators.

The overarching problem with all this is that if you look just at -consumer- price movements to define inflation or deflation, you will find it impossible to understand what goes on.

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: antifracking; deflation; economy; energy; fracking; goldbubblegone; ilargimeijer; inflation; investing; methane; opec; petroleum; pravda; tylerdurden; tylerdurdenmyass; zerohedge
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To: blam

...Moreover, the role the money supply plays in that interaction gets smaller, fast, as debt, in the guise of overindebtedness, forces various players in the global economy, from consumers to companies to governments, to cut down on spending, and heavily. ...
?? Money suppling courtesy of gifting has devalued the dollar. Indebtedness and it’s cousin ‘over’?(courtesy of government leveling) WHEN honored do affect cash velocity , nonobligated money. Printing and passing out more money to sham wow the economy did not work because it’s recipient’s poor useage has most of it locked up in previous benge purchases of new cars, big rims, pickup trucks, not needed things, motor peds, boats, nice things and such.Money flow to satisfy dependence on continuing money flow from heaven, accomplishes nothing but fewer suck backs (repos).
The draw back is obvious
Can’t spend more and more forever... anybody or any regime

I resent the all inclusive ‘companies’.
Not everyone is stoopid. Some make something with the money and truely spread the wealth.


41 posted on 10/22/2015 11:48:30 AM PDT by Recompennation
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To: Lee'sGhost

Rent is too damn high!


42 posted on 10/22/2015 11:48:36 AM PDT by showme_the_Glory ((ILLEGAL: prohibited by law. ALIEN: Owing political allegiance to another country or government))
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To: Toddsterpatriot
You pay $4 for milk?

Last time I bought it, which was a couple of weeks ago. Here's a link that says it is $4.04.

I saw gas much higher than $1.65 in 2007.

I live in a low gas price state.

Your prices are suspect.

No, they are pretty accurate. It's not like i've gone to the library and pulled out the newspaper advertisements to be certain, but that is what stuff was costing back in 2007, and that is what stuff is costing now.

43 posted on 10/22/2015 11:55:07 AM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: blam

http://m.sfgate.com/news/article/Did-the-S-F-buyer-who-scooped-up-a-dilapidated-6584073.php#photo-8667540


44 posted on 10/22/2015 11:58:01 AM PDT by faithhopecharity (Brilliant, funny, and incisive Tagline coming to this space soon.....)
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To: blam

I blame Tom Brady!


45 posted on 10/22/2015 11:58:30 AM PDT by xp38
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To: Nervous Tick

When was the last qtr CAT had growth? The last qtr was spectacular.


46 posted on 10/22/2015 12:06:56 PM PDT by zek157
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To: blam

Very few prices are decreasing. Milk went down ($3.64 to $3.28) because massive rains in the past two months made cows produce too much. However, we are now in the dry season here in Florida and the price is now $3.39.

Some prices are increasing. I’ve seen my beer go from $2.97 to $3.28 to $3.47 for four sixteen ounce cans.

Inflation is basically taking a breather as gasoline and diesel prices have gone sharply lower. That is a temporary phenomena.

The cost of hiring a person isn’t going down, and the cost of labor is normally the most important measure of inflation in a service-based economy.

As a retired person among about 100 million others in the US (~40% of the voting population), I would benefit from deflation, but fiat money such as the US dollar means deflation is a rare bird seen maybe in a few months in any decade.


47 posted on 10/22/2015 12:10:44 PM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: Mr. K

and the box sizes (or at least the contents) have shrunk TOO.”

Box and can sizes have both shrunk. I have an “older” box of Raisin Bran in my stash cupboard. New box is considerably smaller, both in length and width. Years ago we used to be able to get eight bowls of cereal out of one of the boxes, now we can only get four or five. Can contents are also decreasing - .1 at a time until it’s now considerably less and the can isn’t even full.

Cake mix boxes also contain less. Plays havoc with recipes and have had to adjust some of my old ones. Wish they would have just left things like they were and increased their price. I find myself often having to buy two of something and then taking some from the second package/can. Ends up costing a whole lot more money in the long run.


48 posted on 10/22/2015 12:19:50 PM PDT by Grams A (The Sun will rise in the East in the morning and God is still on his throne.)
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To: blam

“serious worldwide deflation”

If it costs $60 to produce a barrel of oil at the margin of demand don’t expect to see oil at $40/barrel next year.

National economic policy should never be based on unsustainable pricing (in the petroleum industry).

Plumbers will cost more in 2020.

Haircuts will cost more in 2020.

Car repairs will cost more in 2020.

The food you ate in 2015 will cost more in 2020.


49 posted on 10/22/2015 12:23:38 PM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: ForYourChildren

What in the hell is “debt deleveraging”?


50 posted on 10/22/2015 12:24:43 PM PDT by Corey Ohlis (Visualize Swirled Peas)
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To: Grams A

“cake mix”

I baked a cake this morning. The major ingredient is now sugar. Boxes used to be 18 or 21 oz. The box this morning was 15.25 ounces I believe.

I really should have used only two eggs. The three they called for might have been fine for a 21 oz. box.


51 posted on 10/22/2015 12:27:47 PM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: Toddsterpatriot; DiogenesLamp

Was at Kroger’s last night. Half-gallon of 2% milk (Kroger brand) was $1.99. Prefer to buy Borden’s but it was $3.99/half-gallon.

Plus I get a 10% senior discount on the Kroger brand and pay no sales tax on food in Texas. $1.79 net versus $3.99 on a $50/week grocery budget is a no-brainer. You buy what you can afford.


52 posted on 10/22/2015 12:32:58 PM PDT by Grams A (The Sun will rise in the East in the morning and God is still on his throne.)
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To: Corey Ohlis

when you pay down or off loans.


53 posted on 10/22/2015 12:39:22 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, & R)
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To: Grams A; Toddsterpatriot
Was at Kroger’s last night. Half-gallon of 2% milk (Kroger brand) was $1.99. Prefer to buy Borden’s but it was $3.99/half-gallon.

Plus I get a 10% senior discount on the Kroger brand and pay no sales tax on food in Texas. $1.79 net versus $3.99 on a $50/week grocery budget is a no-brainer. You buy what you can afford.

I really don't know which pricing I posted to which he objected. All those prices are consistent with what I have paid in 2007 and what I have paid in 2015.

Everything is up nearly 100%. He probably makes so much money that it hasn't hurt him enough to notice how much everything has gone up.

Anyone on a budget is well aware of it.

54 posted on 10/22/2015 12:39:25 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: Toddsterpatriot
At Wal_Mart (Mobile)one gallon of 2% milk is $3.94
55 posted on 10/22/2015 1:09:23 PM PDT by blam (Jeff Sessions For President)
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To: DiogenesLamp
I bought milk 2 days ago for $2.25

Pretty close to what I paid in 2007.

I live in a low gas price state.

I live in Chicago, but the nationwide average was never that low in 2007.

http://www.gasbuddy.com/Charts

56 posted on 10/22/2015 1:32:34 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot ("Telling the government to lower trade barriers to zero...is government interference" central_va)
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To: DiogenesLamp

25% since 2007 seems realistic, 100%, not so much.

This chart is just food and beverages.

57 posted on 10/22/2015 1:37:16 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot ("Telling the government to lower trade barriers to zero...is government interference" central_va)
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To: Toddsterpatriot
25% since 2007 seems realistic, 100%, not so much.

This chart is just food and beverages.

Did you look at the url of that chart? This is it.

http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/CUUR0000SAF_941778_1445546279577.gif

Did you notice the ".gov" ?

Are you seriously pushing an Obama chart on us as proof that Obama is telling the truth about inflation?

Seriously?

Do you even know how this Chicago Mafia crap works?

Obama is lying dude. Every agency of the US.gov under his control is deliberately faking the numbers. That is what the entire thread is trying to tell you. Obama is fudging the numbers to make himself not look like a ruinous dumbass.

58 posted on 10/22/2015 1:56:29 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: Toddsterpatriot
I live in Chicago, but the nationwide average was never that low in 2007.

http://www.gasbuddy.com/Charts

Your chart does not support your assertion.

59 posted on 10/22/2015 1:58:22 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: DiogenesLamp
Did you notice the ".gov" ?

Yeah, who am I gonna believe, an entire agency that actually collects this sort of data or some dude who thinks tuna represents the entirety of consumer prices?

Are you seriously pushing an Obama chart on us as proof that Obama is telling the truth about inflation?

Are you seriously claiming that consumer prices doubled, during the weakest recovery in history? Obama can fudge all the numbers he wants, that still doesn't help your claim.

60 posted on 10/22/2015 2:02:01 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot ("Telling the government to lower trade barriers to zero...is government interference" central_va)
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