Posted on 10/08/2015 5:53:56 AM PDT by thackney
After oil prices plummeted, I went on the record saying I thought they'd be back above $70 per barrel by the end of 2015.
The year isn't over yet, but my prediction isn't looking good.
I thought worldwide demand would go up — and it has. The latest from the International Energy Agency shows demand is already up about 1.7 million barrels a day.
thought supply from the United States would go down — and it has. Companies have been laying down rigs, and U.S. production has dropped by 500,000 barrels a day since June.
So where'd I go wrong? One word: OPEC.
I thought supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries — and specifically Saudi Arabia — would also go down. You can't get rich selling anything for less than it costs to maintain the country. I expected they would at least maintain, if not cut, production to command a better price.
That didn't happen. Rather than cutting back or holding steady, OPEC drove prices even lower as Saudi Arabia has increased production by almost a million barrels a day.
I erred in underestimating OPEC's determination to keep the flow of oil under their control. The OPEC cartel is controlled by leaders whose top priority isn't to make money for stockholders, it's keeping themselves in power.
Even knowing that, I didn't expect to see Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates all working to increase their market share by bringing new production online over the next few years.
They won't be alone going forward. Iran will become an even bigger factor in the next few years now that the removal of sanctions allows them access to more of the world market. And Iraq has some of the world's largest reserves. If the country ever...
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
The only problem with your call is that you missed Russia’s entrance into the middle east by about 6 months.
I don’t view Russia’s involvement in the Middle East as a stabilizing force likely to produce more oil production.
I agree. I think Russia is there to move the price up. To convince the Saudi’s to cut back on production. I think that $70 call will be good... but just not in January.
do you think Russia being over there has anything to do with the oil price impact to Russia?
It might....
Headline on FoxNews.com
Agree.... Russia is not going to repeat the 80s. Not if they can help it.
Game changing, maybe, for Israel, not the world market.
T Boone is 87 and well past his prime as a corporate raider.
He needs to stay in a place where he cannot harm anybody.
No one should listen to what he says or writes.
When T. Boone talks, my first instinct is to apply a firm grip to my wallet.
hang in there.... we will have a war in the middle east soon..
not intended as investment advice... nor to be taken as same
factor in the billions of bbls of oil israel found in the golan and there is more supply... at what cost..?? the saudis are using sophisticated recovery methods and the wells are starting to fill with salt water... plus the house of saud could be eliminated and iran (russia)/proxy could take over... Suppose opec just simply agreed to raise its price... do yo think the majors woudln’t go along..?
factor in the petrodollar may be removed as the reserve currency and who knows.
and finally commodity prices are manipulated by major bankers gunning for glencore and want to take em out...which will have an untold effect on stocks, currencies and world of finance... a house of cards...
why is the physical price of precious metals up to 50% above the “market price”.... why is the sky blue...
it does look like oil ahs firmed, but who knows about $70..
good luck
I wouldn't put too much faith in this guy. He sounds like a promoter. A hawker at the carnival.
They haven't put an actual number of technically and economically recovered, that I have been able to find. If you have other info, I would appreciate the link.
Leaving out very important info used to determine recoverable, but only talking about the factors that make it look good to the uninformed seems quite telling to me.
Perosity? Permability?
Compare the Green River Shale with the Eagle Ford Formation and only talk about thickness would be very misleading.
Saudi Arabia is Sunni, Russia is backing Iran and the Shia. Russian and Iran need their oil wealth more then the Saudis to fund their war on the Saudi’s proxies. By undercutting the price of Oil Saudi Arabia is waging economic war on its foes.
Considering the hostility of the oil producing states to Israel they have other issues that make the costs issues involved in oil extraction less of an determining factor for them then most Nations.
He always talks his book. He is long oil, i.e., unhedged significantly on the production under his control. If he were short, the opposite.
if oil is a weapon, the Saudi action is aimed at Russia
It is your understanding that Israel currently imports oil above market rates?
I think he’s been preoccupied with his latest divorce.
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