Ted Cruz sees slow and steady path to 2016 presidential victory

TheHill ^ | 10/5/15 | Ben Kamisar

[VinL]

Ted Cruz is playing a slow and steady campaign, but for the firebrand Texas senator, that doesn’t translate into being quiet.

In the past week alone, he has stolen supporters from fellow Republican presidential candidate Rand Paul (Ky.), won the rousing support of evangelicals and had to be shut down by Senate leaders for trying to complicate efforts on a short-term funding extension with a protest vote against Planned Parenthood funding.

That reflects Cruz's efforts to try to emerge as the consensus anti-establishment candidate if and when the top three outsider candidates, and his biggest rivals, peter out.

Rolling out Libertarian supporters who previously backed Sen. Paul's father in his presidential bids is part of Cruz's aim to go after his rivals on their home field.

“Our theory has always been that you need to crush your bracket first in order to advance,” Rick Tyler, a Cruz spokesperson, said, comparing the primary slog to the annual college basketball tournament.

"We don't want to break out. ... We are moving slow and steady."

Tyler sees the GOP primary electorate as four distinct “brackets” of voters — libertarian, evangelical, Tea Party, and establishment candidates — and it’s clear that Cruz continues to make a play for all but the latter.

Cruz’s “Liberty Leaders for Cruz” coalition is made up of mostly former Rep. Ron Paul (Texas) supporters, a direct affront to Sen. Rand Paul.

And the attack has come as Paul’s support has waned in the polls and amid reports that he’s shifted some emphasis toward fundraising for his Senate reelection.

Cruz’s endorsements prompted a major rebuke from Paul on Fox News Radio on Tuesday, where he bashed Cruz’s legislative record and said that his “lack of personal relationships” have contributed to a downfall in the Senate.

Cruz has already made a strong play for the evangelical and Tea Party blocs — jumping into the race as a Tea Party favorite, he immediately made a play for Christian conservative voters with an announcement from the evangelical Liberty University.

Indicative of the fruits of that play, a strong win at last weekend’s Values Voter Summit straw poll, with almost double the support of second-place finisher Ben Carson and more than double the support for former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.).

GOP strategists say he’s in a solid position to be the first choice of other candidates' supporters once their favorite drops out.

“If you look at where the Carson vote goes, the Huckabee vote eventually goes, the [Rick] Santorum vote, or the Rand Paul vote eventually goes, Cruz is very well positioned to be the default choice of supporters of a lot of other candidates,” said Matt Mackowiak, an Austin-based GOP strategist.

While Cruz has remained relatively stable at the polls, he’s well behind the trio of outsider candidates at the top of national polls — billionaire Donald Trump, retired neurosurgeon Carson, and former businesswoman Carly Fiorina.

Although Cruz may be in a good spot to scoop up former supporters of Trump and Carson, it’s unclear if or when they’ll fade with enough time to give Cruz the chance to win that support.

GOP Strategist Doug Heye, a fellow at the Harvard University Institute of Politics, praised the “smart” strategy of Cruz’s campaign, but acknowledged that it comes with significant risk, thanks to the deep pockets of the Trump and Carson campaigns.

“It obviously gets complicated, doesn’t it? I still believe that eventually Trump will fade, but I think Carson, too. … If you are Cruz, he’s clearly betting that’s going to happen,” Heye said.

“[But] if you are drafting behind somebody, it means you are behind them,” he added.

Cruz’s allies say they aren’t worried, as they see him as the outsider running with an insider strategy.

Kellyanne Conway, the president of the pro-Cruz super-PAC Keep the Promise 1, told The Hill that while Republicans have made their preference for an outsider clear, Americans at large haven’t sent someone without any political experience to the White House since President Eisenhower.

“In the top six or seven, who is the outsider that can play in the insider lane?” she asked rhetorically.

“Republican voters have proven that they want to send a message. But ultimately, they want to send somebody to the White House.”

Outsider candidates have won each of the last two Iowa caucuses — former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in 2012 and Huckabee in 2008 — but both fizzled soon after, when the late momentum couldn’t overcome the lack of deeply rooted organizations across the country.

The Cruz campaign has made a point in touting organization well beyond the early nominating states, kicking off an SEC primary bus tour last month and continuing to roll out state campaign chairs.

“Cruz has the potential to have a Santorum or Huckabee-like trajectory in Iowa, but I also think he’s playing a much longer game,” Mackowiak said.

That long game includes a likely victory in Texas, a state that is home to 155 delegates and one where Cruz won statewide in his 2012 Senate election over a much better funded establishment conservative.

“It’s about delegate math, and in a field that’s as crowded as this is, those candidates who can stay in the longest and pick off delegates as states go from winner take all to proportional becomes more and more important,” Heye said.

The long-haul strategy isn’t novel; it’s what leading candidates do each cycle and a strategy employed by 2016’s well-funded establishment candidates like former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

But Cruz has the money to do so from outside the establishment lane. He raised more hard money than any other candidate in the second quarter, and trailed only Bush in super-PAC money over the first six months.

Tyler wouldn’t reveal the campaign's fundraising figure for the quarter that closed on Wednesday, but foreshadowed a strong result that he said would forge the “dividing line” between those who are built to last and those who aren’t.

And while Conway’s super-PAC doesn’t have to report its donations until January, she’s confident that both the official campaign and its allies will have ample resources to last.

She said that “2016 is a process of elimination nomination and if you are built for the war of attrition.”

“If you are still standing one, two, four months from now, you’re in a good position.”

[VinL]

We've said it on FR-- "slow and steady wins the race."

Also, love having Kellyanne Conway on the Cruz team...she's terrific.

[cripplecreek]

MI state Senator Pat Colbeck is the State chair of the Cruz campaign. He’s a very solid pick and a leader in the area of free market health care alternatives to Obamacare.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/search?m=all;o=time;q=quick;s=Pat%20Colbeck

[MeshugeMikey]

We’ve said it on FR— “slow and steady wins the race.”

Amen and Amen!

while others are headed for the Pits or have SPUN OUT into the infield. the true conservative in the house is putting one foot in front of the other

[Old Retired Army Guy]

Harvard Educated Attorney. Wife is Goldman Sachs Analyst. Biggest donors are Trial Lawyers. Enough said!

[traderrob6]

Your post brings to mind Mark Twains old adage about “arguing with a fool”.

[VinL]

“old retired”— why must you always be so negative?

First, please produce your evidence of ANY donations from trial attorneys in his presidential campaign?

Second, shall we compare other candidate wives to Heidi Cruz?

Both Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh cite Cruz has the most consistent conservative in this race. FR is a conservative Board.

Now, if you prefer someone else, that’s fine. But why, if you’re conservative, speak negatively about an individual who espouses conservative values?

[CatherineofAragon]

Slow and steady is precisely how Cruz overcame zero name recognition to handily whip an extremely popular, wealthy, self-funded candidate in 2012.

[kjam22]

You know.... If he can hang on to his money, stay in the top 4 or 5 and above 6 or 7%, and be there ready to roll in the first part of January, he stands a chance.

[alloysteel]

Ted Cruz cannot be counted out. But there is still one very large elephant in the room....

And by no means is that very formidable creature about to move aside.

Ted Cruz stands to wind up in a very important part of any government administration that manages to displace the Current Regime. But first, the Current Regime HAS to be displaced, and given the degree of penetration that some of the corruption in that territory one known as “the United States of America” has reached, it may be difficult if not impossible to overcome the vote fraud that is sure to be rampant in November 2016.

[cripplecreek]

[Old Retired Army Guy]

Go to OpenSecrets.Org. One of Top Five contributors is a Law Firm. In top Organization Contributors is Trial Lawyers in excess of $1 Million to Campaign and PAC.

[cripplecreek]

So trial lawyers donate to him (and everybody else). What are you trying to say?

[CatherineofAragon]

It’s rare to hear that particular truth voiced by a candidate. Cruz not only says it-—he will back it up with action. His record and his history prove it.

[VinL]

Old retired— I went there. There’s mo record of any contributions to Ted Cruz from trial attorneys.

Cruz’s super Pac money comes from Mercer, Wilks Bros, and Naufebauer— no law firm.

Please name the law firm that gave him a million dollars. Thanks.

[cripplecreek]

Yeah but he's one of those filthy lawyers.

In the landmark case of District of Columbia v. Heller, Cruz drafted the amicus brief signed by the attorneys general of 31 states, which said that the D.C. handgun ban should be struck down as infringing upon the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms.

In addition to his success in Heller, Cruz successfully defended the constitutionality of the Ten Commandments monument on the Texas State Capitol grounds before the Fifth Circuit and the U.S. Supreme Court, winning 5–4 in Van Orden v. Perry.

In 2004, Cruz was involved in the high-profile case, Elk Grove Unified School District v. Newdow, in which he wrote a U.S. Supreme Court brief on behalf of all 50 states. The Supreme Court upheld the position of Cruz’s brief.

Cruz also successfully defended, in Medellin v. Texas, the State of Texas against an attempt to re-open the cases of 51 Mexican nationals, all of whom were convicted of murder in the United States and were on death row. With the support of the George W. Bush Administration, the petitioners argued that the United States had violated the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations by failing to notify the convicted nationals of their opportunity to receive legal aid from the Mexican consulate.[54][65] They based their case on a decision of the International Court of Justice in the Avena case which ruled that by failing to allow access to the Mexican consulate, the US had breached its obligations under the Convention. Texas won the case in a 6–3 decision, the Supreme Court holding that ICJ decisions were not binding in domestic law and that the President had no power to enforce them

[DaxtonBrown]

So who do you support? Trump made his money playing Liberal And Conservative politicians. Jeb is for open borders. Carson has problems on immigration and no executive experience. Rubio is another open borders guy. iCarly drove HP into the ground.

So tell us, who is your perfect candidate? So we can laugh.

[Old Retired Army Guy]

I am just stating the facts. He is one of them, so I am not surprised they supporting him. One of the biggest problems facing this country is the grip Trial Lawyers have on legislation which is designed to support and promulgate their profession. I understand this, but that doesn’t eliminate the fact that it is injurious to the fabric of the nation. Trial Lawyers are the largest and most influential lobby groups in the Nation and the States and controls the votes that promulgates our litigious society, on both sides of the aisle, more than the general public realizes. Cruz is just one of the many that support them.

[jpsb]

Cruz won the Texas primary thanks to Sarah Palin getting involved in the race. Prior to Palin coming to Texas Cruz was going nowhere.

It looks like the Cruz supported job killing TPP will become an issue again. Cruz will have some serious explaining to do on helping O get TPP.

[VinL]

I am just stating the facts.
****************
Old retired, if you’re stating facts, please give evidence of the contribution. I went to open secrets.org and I can’t find any contribution to Ted Cruz from a trial lawyer or firm.

[CatherineofAragon]

LOL, look at all of those nasty underhanded things he did.

It isn’t the lawyer thing that bugs me so much; it’s that his wife is employed by the Bilderbergers to spy on the Illuminati while overseeing the ceremonies at the Bohemian Grove.