Posted on 10/02/2015 6:51:23 PM PDT by ilovesarah2012
For days, the models that guide the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts had been split over the future of Hurricane Joaquin.
Different models were sending the storm to Cape Hatteras in North Carolina or to Maine or to Bermuda. The official forecast — which held that the storm would make landfall in the mid-Atlantic — was “low” confidence, as the center put it. It was an attempt to compromise between models that fundamentally disagreed.
Friday, the official forecast now takes Joaquin out to sea. A direct hit on the East Coast can’t yet be ruled out, but the top models doubt it.
If this forecast holds, Hurricane Joaquin will yield one clear winner: the model from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — or simply, the European model — which consistently forecast that Joaquin would head off to sea.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
With so many variables to take into account, most weather models are worthless ... guesswork at best.
As of 10pm, we've had 10 inches of rain here in SC with another 10 inches predicted by tuesday. Oh boy. Wish I had started that ark before now.
Here in Virginia, the outlier forecast had Joaquin moving right up the middle of Chesapeake Bay. The seven other commonly used models had it going way east of the coast.
Gov. McAwful wet his pants and declared a state of emergency within hours.
Joe Bastardi at weatherbell likes the european.
But global warming predictions are settled science.
*snerk*
The difference is interesting when you look at accuracy over time. Over 4 days away and the American models start to make up stuff. 10 days is almost always pure fantasy. The European models can be wrong too but are usually better at the longer timeframes. But go down to 2 days and they both do well. That means that the data they ingest to make the forecasts is fine and they can both project from there. But the fundamental principles of weather like how air mixes and convects is somewhat screwed up in the American models. And a big reason for that is parameters are selected to end up (in the very coarse but analogous climate models) with global warming.
Just be assured that they know for sure that it will be X degrees warmer a hundred years from now.
GIGO
Isn’t that rain you’re getting coming from a storm that’s moving in from the west rather than from the hurricane?
When I forecast to go tornado chasing in Spring, I look at all the models. The one model that usually stands out as the most reliable seems to be the Euro model. Obviously, this model does not always cooperate, but it sure has been reliable out to almost two weekss. The GFS (US) model has been smokin something for the last couple of years. Not very reliable... Can’t wait to have our GFS upgraded very soon!
No. We are getting turbulence storm generated by Joachim. Everything is coming from southeast heading northwest.
hahaha.... can laugh now. :)
This hurricane season has been downright bizarre. In the Pacific, I think so far I have counted eight either hurricanes or tropical storms which have formed in the same general area off of the west coast of Mexico.
All were pointed at the tip of Baja, and after forming, they just *sat* there. Then they dissipated. Then the next one formed. Never seen anything like it.
The same with Hawaii. Maybe five or more tropical storms and hurricanes were headed northwest towards Hawaii, then either veered off northerly, which is more normal, or did something totally unexpected, they went due west, parallel to the equator.
There hasn’t been as many in the Atlantic, but they are also standoffish, for the most part.
It’s really hard to model things that haven’t happened before.
I am confused here....!!!!
Global warming “models” can predict the climate in 100 years and is considered settled science....
But hurricane “models” show vastly different scenarios only four or five days out....
I guess these global warming guys are just that much smarter than the hurricane guys....: )
Here in South Florida, it’s not raining, the winds are from the North at 3 mph, and the waves aren’t anything special.
You are not seeing effects of the hurricane yet, it is south of Miami right now.
You have an occluded front parked over you that is bringing in Atlantic moisture, it has a low pressure ridge sitting on the mountains and you have a wedge effect of the moisture being packed against the mountains with no where to go except rain.
Your system hung out in Ga for 5 days before going north to you. We got about 8 inches of rain from it, and still have some of it hanging around.
Had the hurricane run in over top of that the flooding would have been really bad due to the saturated ground.
OK. I recall seeing some earlier reporting on a separate storm coming from the west. Perhaps those reports were later revised.
From what I’m seeing, Joachim is forcing this storm inland. Its slow enough to be sucking up massive amounts of moisture. It’s still moving north west. If it wasn’t for Joachim, this storm could have just as easily traveled north by northeast up the coast and not have dumped so much rain inland.
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