Posted on 10/02/2015 4:12:39 AM PDT by expat_panama
LONDON (Reuters) - Gains for European and Asia stocks capped a wild week for financial markets on Friday, ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that could determine the chances of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates before year-end.
Concerns about U.S. monetary policy and slowdown in emerging markets led by China have hit commodities markets and related stocks like Glencore and sent credit spreads wider this week in the wake of a summertime surge in volatility.
An escalation of fighting in Syria, with Russian air strikes marking its biggest Middle East intervention in decades, has so far failed to spook global markets beyond a rise in oil prices, however, and global equities are set to end the week flat.
"European equities are trading higher this morning, trying to stage a hesitant rebound after yesterday's bearish market action," said Markus Huber, a trader at Peregrine & Black.
"While a very strong (U.S. data) reading would certainly increase the likelihood of a rate hike this year, very few expect that the Fed will pull the trigger as soon as October."
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 up 0.8 percent, while German Bund futures were little changed.
The U.S. dollar index was slightly higher ahead of nonfarm payrolls data expected to show the U.S. economy added 203,000 jobs in September, according to a Reuters poll. [ECONUS]
While years of cheap central bank cash in the wake of the 2007-2008 financial crisis have fueled asset prices, recent signs of a slowdown in global economic growth and the Fed's decision last month to put off a rate rise have spooked investors betting on a return to more normal policy.
Mixed data on Thursday failed to give more clues, with the pace of growth at U.S. factories slowing in September while new jobless claims...
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
Depends on the meaning of “is.”
The Fed desperately wants to raise interest rates, but Yellen blinked last time.
As currently constituted, the Fed sees monetary policy as its only means of influencing economic growth/activity; and near-zero interest rates mean the Fed has no options (tax cuts are out of the question, of course).
The BLS numbers will be “adjusted” to support a rate hike.
Happy Friday. Futures' got both stocks and metals up (+0.32% and 0.16% respectfully) after yesterday's stock indexes saw modest gains in quite trade. Metals continue their base (or maybe "ledge") with gold $1,107.20 and silver $14.51. Wrapping up the week with a geek feast:
8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls
8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls
8:30 AM Unemployment Rate
8:30 AM Hourly Earnings
8:30 AM Average Workweek
10:00 AM Factory Orders
Recommended thread: Candidates Talk Tax Cuts But Go AWOL On Spending Cuts
Elsewhere
Turn on FBN and listen to Keith. I think has a some excellent observations on the current situation.
Maybe, my guess is that they'd prefer to be in a position where prices were stable with interest rates closer to longer term averages --they'd have options and wouldn't need them. In the mean time what they just want is to do what they need to do and can do.
...the Fed sees monetary policy as its only means of influencing economic growth/activity...
Everyone says that but prying into it shows that they know they don't control what you and I choose to buy and sell from day to day. It's not even their job. Their job is controlling inflation and imho they've been doing it pretty well. This 'fed-does-growth' thing is something they play along w/ but only half-heartedly.
The BLS numbers will be adjusted to support a rate hike.
There's been some pressure on the BLS to fudge but by and large they pretty much stay clean, which is why everyone uses their numbers for 'proving' that the unemployment rate's a lie.
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until USDL-15-1912 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015 Technical information: Household data: (202) 691-6378 cpsinfo@bls.gov www.bls.gov/cps Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 cesinfo@bls.gov www.bls.gov/ces Media contact: (202) 691-5902 PressOffice@bls.gov THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- SEPTEMBER 2015 Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and information, while mining employment fell. Household Survey Data In September, the unemployment rate held at 5.1 percent, and the number of unemployed persons (7.9 million) changed little. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 0.8 percentage point and 1.3 million, respectively. (See table A-1.) Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.7 percent), adult women (4.6 percent), teenagers (16.3 percent), whites (4.4 percent), blacks (9.2 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), and Hispanics (6.4 percent) showed little or no change in September. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.) The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks increased by 268,000 to 2.4 million in September, partially offsetting a decline in August. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 2.1 million in September and accounted for 26.6 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.) The civilian labor force participation rate declined to 62.4 percent in September; the rate had been 62.6 percent for the prior 3 months. The employment-population ratio edged down to 59.2 percent in September, after showing little movement for the first 8 months of the year. (See table A-1.) The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 447,000 to 6.0 million in September. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. Over the past 12 months, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons declined by 1.0 million. (See table A-8.) In September, 1.9 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by 305,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.) Among the marginally attached, there were 635,000 discouraged workers in September, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in September had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.) Establishment Survey Data Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in September. Thus far in 2015, job growth has averaged 198,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 260,000 in 2014. In September, job gains occurred in health care and information, while employment in mining continued to decline. (See table B-1.) Health care added 34,000 jobs in September, in line with the average increase of 38,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. Hospitals accounted for 16,000 of the jobs gained in September, and employment in ambulatory health care services continued to trend up (+13,000). Employment in information increased by 12,000 in September and has increased by 44,000 over the year. Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in September (+31,000). Job growth has averaged 45,000 per month thus far in 2015, compared with an average monthly gain of 59,000 in 2014. In September, job gains occurred in computer systems design and related services (+7,000) and in legal services (+5,000). Retail trade employment trended up in September (+24,000), in line with its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+27,000). In September, employment rose in general merchandise stores (+10,000) and automobile dealers (+5,000). Employment in food services and drinking places continued on an upward trend in September (+21,000). Over the year, this industry has added 349,000 jobs. Employment in mining continued to decline in September (-10,000), with losses concentrated in support activities for mining (-7,000). Mining employment has declined by 102,000 since reaching a peak in December 2014. Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and government, showed little or no change over the month. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in September. The manufacturing workweek decreased by 0.2 hour to 40.6 hours, and factory overtime declined by 0.2 hour to 3.1 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.) In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, at $25.09, changed little (-1 cent), following a 9-cent gain in August. Hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent over the year. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees were unchanged at $21.08 in September. (See tables B-3 and B-8.) The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +245,000 to +223,000, and the change for August was revised from +173,000 to +136,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 59,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 167,000 per month. _____________ The Employment Situation for October is scheduled to be released on Friday, November 6, 2015, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).
Dang, only 142K jobs added.
I think the “wise” people were looking for 203K.
Big miss across the board, July and Aug adjusted down UNEXPECTEDLY as well. Only slightly better U6 number.
Yes, a weak number. And puts pressure on the Fed yet again to hold fire at the October meeting. It’s tragicomic.
That’s the establishment number. The broader household number shows a drop of 350,000 fewer jobs. The unemployment rate stays at 5.1 because 579,000 left the workforce.
Stock indexes now at -0.96%, and metals are up 1.18%. We'll see how this holds out tho, if it can change for this it can change for something else too (mho).
Only Washington bureaucrats could take 3 1/2 pages to say “the economy sucks”.
The 350k and 579k figures sound worse than the headline number. I guess that's why the DJIA is -226 at the moment.
The markets are back to just about even. WTH is going on?
Dow up 50. It’s rigged, I tell ya!!!!!
Dang you caught me! Yeah, I rigged it this morning when the jobs numbers came out and Yellen called me up to tell me she sending me another helicopter load of money fresh of the press. My plan was to un-rig it later on if that's ok w/ you...
But you were supposed to tell me, so that we could both get in at the bottom, dammit!!!1
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