Fed in focus as jobs data looms

Yahoo Finance ^ | Fri, Oct 2, 2015 | Lionel Laurent

[expat_panama]

LONDON (Reuters) - Gains for European and Asia stocks capped a wild week for financial markets on Friday, ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that could determine the chances of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates before year-end.

Concerns about U.S. monetary policy and slowdown in emerging markets led by China have hit commodities markets and related stocks like Glencore and sent credit spreads wider this week in the wake of a summertime surge in volatility.

An escalation of fighting in Syria, with Russian air strikes marking its biggest Middle East intervention in decades, has so far failed to spook global markets beyond a rise in oil prices, however, and global equities are set to end the week flat.

"European equities are trading higher this morning, trying to stage a hesitant rebound after yesterday's bearish market action," said Markus Huber, a trader at Peregrine & Black.

"While a very strong (U.S. data) reading would certainly increase the likelihood of a rate hike this year, very few expect that the Fed will pull the trigger as soon as October."

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 up 0.8 percent, while German Bund futures were little changed.

The U.S. dollar index was slightly higher ahead of nonfarm payrolls data expected to show the U.S. economy added 203,000 jobs in September, according to a Reuters poll. [ECONUS]

While years of cheap central bank cash in the wake of the 2007-2008 financial crisis have fueled asset prices, recent signs of a slowdown in global economic growth and the Fed's decision last month to put off a rate rise have spooked investors betting on a return to more normal policy.

Mixed data on Thursday failed to give more clues, with the pace of growth at U.S. factories slowing in September while new jobless claims...

[expat_panama]

We can say what we want about the BLS numbers and the Fed's monetary policy, but they're there and they impact. Thing is that the impact is not usually what folks say it is.

[abb]

Depends on the meaning of “is.”

[Arm_Bears]

The Fed desperately wants to raise interest rates, but Yellen blinked last time.

As currently constituted, the Fed sees monetary policy as its only means of influencing economic growth/activity; and near-zero interest rates mean the Fed has no options (tax cuts are out of the question, of course).

The BLS numbers will be “adjusted” to support a rate hike.

[expat_panama]

Happy Friday.  Futures' got both stocks and metals up (+0.32% and 0.16% respectfully) after yesterday's stock indexes saw modest gains in quite trade.  Metals continue their base (or maybe "ledge") with gold $1,107.20 and silver $14.51.  Wrapping up the week with a geek feast:

8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls
8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls
8:30 AM Unemployment Rate
8:30 AM Hourly Earnings
8:30 AM Average Workweek
10:00 AM Factory Orders

Recommended thread: Candidates Talk Tax Cuts But Go AWOL On Spending Cuts

Elsewhere

Global Stocks Rise Ahead of US Jobs Report

Wall Street Journal - 1 hour ago Global stock markets were mostly higher Friday, as investors awaited the September U.S. jobs report to offer more clarity on the Federal Reserve's plans to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.

Oil Rebounds Ahead US Jobs Report, Rig Data

Wall Street Journal - 9 hours ago Crude-oil futures rebounded in Asian trade Friday, erasing overnight losses as traders positioned themselves ahead of a U.S. jobs report and rig-count data due later in the trading day.

Hong Kong shares climb 3.2 pct on China policies to boost economy

Reuters - 3 hours ago HONG KONG Oct 2 Hong Kong shares rose more than 3 percent on Friday, pulling further away from two-year lows hit earlier in the week, as investors cheered moves by China to prop up its sluggish property market and cooling economy.
Job growth seen accelerating, leaving Fed closer to hike

[mad_as_he$$]

Turn on FBN and listen to Keith. I think has a some excellent observations on the current situation.

[expat_panama]

The Fed desperately wants to raise interest rates

Maybe, my guess is that they'd prefer to be in a position where prices were stable with interest rates closer to longer term averages --they'd have options and wouldn't need them.  In the mean time what they just want is to do what they need to do and can do. 

...the Fed sees monetary policy as its only means of influencing economic growth/activity...

Everyone says that but prying into it shows that they know they don't control what you and I choose to buy and sell from day to day.   It's not even their job.  Their job is controlling inflation and imho they've been doing it pretty well.  This 'fed-does-growth' thing is something they play along w/ but only half-heartedly. 

The BLS numbers will be “adjusted” to support a rate hike.

There's been some pressure on the BLS to fudge but by and large they pretty much stay clean, which is why everyone uses their numbers for 'proving' that the unemployment rate's a lie.

[NonLinear]

H2> Employment Situation Summary

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until             USDL-15-1912
8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015

Technical information:
 Household data:     (202) 691-6378  •  cpsinfo@bls.gov  •  www.bls.gov/cps
 Establishment data: (202) 691-6555  •  cesinfo@bls.gov  •  www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact:	     (202) 691-5902  •  PressOffice@bls.gov


                    THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- SEPTEMBER 2015


Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in September, and the
unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and information,
while mining employment fell.

Household Survey Data

In September, the unemployment rate held at 5.1 percent, and the number of
unemployed persons (7.9 million) changed little. Over the year, the unemployment
rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 0.8 percentage point and
1.3 million, respectively. (See table A-1.) 

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.7 percent),
adult women (4.6 percent), teenagers (16.3 percent), whites (4.4 percent), blacks
(9.2 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), and Hispanics (6.4 percent) showed little
or no change in September. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks increased by 268,000 to
2.4 million in September, partially offsetting a decline in August. The number
of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed
at 2.1 million in September and accounted for 26.6 percent of the unemployed.
(See table A-12.)

The civilian labor force participation rate declined to 62.4 percent in September;
the rate had been 62.6 percent for the prior 3 months. The employment-population
ratio edged down to 59.2 percent in September, after showing little movement for
the first 8 months of the year. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to
as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 447,000 to 6.0 million in September.
These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part
time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a
full-time job. Over the past 12 months, the number of persons employed part time
for economic reasons declined by 1.0 million. (See table A-8.)

In September, 1.9 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down
by 305,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These 
individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and
had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as
unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the
survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 635,000 discouraged workers in September,
little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.)
Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe
no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally
attached to the labor force in September had not searched for work for reasons
such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in September. Thus far in
2015, job growth has averaged 198,000 per month, compared with an average monthly
gain of 260,000 in 2014. In September, job gains occurred in health care and
information, while employment in mining continued to decline. (See table B-1.)

Health care added 34,000 jobs in September, in line with the average increase of
38,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. Hospitals accounted for 16,000 of
the jobs gained in September, and employment in ambulatory health care services
continued to trend up (+13,000).

Employment in information increased by 12,000 in September and has increased by
44,000 over the year.

Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in September
(+31,000). Job growth has averaged 45,000 per month thus far in 2015, compared
with an average monthly gain of 59,000 in 2014. In September, job gains occurred
in computer systems design and related services (+7,000) and in legal services
(+5,000).

Retail trade employment trended up in September (+24,000), in line with its average
monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+27,000). In September, employment rose in
general merchandise stores (+10,000) and automobile dealers (+5,000).

Employment in food services and drinking places continued on an upward trend in
September (+21,000). Over the year, this industry has added 349,000 jobs.

Employment in mining continued to decline in September (-10,000), with losses
concentrated in support activities for mining (-7,000). Mining employment has
declined by 102,000 since reaching a peak in December 2014.

Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing,
wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and
government, showed little or no change over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by
0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in September. The manufacturing workweek decreased by
0.2 hour to 40.6 hours, and factory overtime declined by 0.2 hour to 3.1 hours.
The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private
nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm
payrolls, at $25.09, changed little (-1 cent), following a 9-cent gain in August.
Hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent over the year. Average hourly earnings
of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees were unchanged at
$21.08 in September. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +245,000
to +223,000, and the change for August was revised from +173,000 to +136,000. With
these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 59,000 less
than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 167,000
per month.

_____________
The Employment Situation for October is scheduled to be released on Friday,
November 6, 2015, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).

• Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
• Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
• Employment Situation Frequently Asked Questions
• Employment Situation Technical Note
• Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age
• Table A-2. Employment status of the civilian population by race, sex, and age
• Table A-3. Employment status of the Hispanic or Latino population by sex and age
• Table A-4. Employment status of the civilian population 25 years and over by educational attainment
• Table A-5. Employment status of the civilian population 18 years and over by veteran status, period of service, and sex, not seasonally adjusted
• Table A-6. Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, and disability status, not seasonally adjusted
• Table A-7. Employment status of the civilian population by nativity and sex, not seasonally adjusted
• Table A-8. Employed persons by class of worker and part-time status
• Table A-9. Selected employment indicators
• Table A-10. Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted
• Table A-11. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment
• Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
• Table A-13. Employed and unemployed persons by occupation, not seasonally adjusted
• Table A-14. Unemployed persons by industry and class of worker, not seasonally adjusted
• Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
• Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted
• Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail
• Table B-2. Average weekly hours and overtime of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
• Table B-3. Average hourly and weekly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
• Table B-4. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
• Table B-5. Employment of women on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
• Table B-6. Employment of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
• Table B-7. Average weekly hours and overtime of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
• Table B-8. Average hourly and weekly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
• Table B-9. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
  
• Access to historical data for the "A" tables of the Employment Situation Release
• Access to historical data for the "B" tables of the Employment Situation Release
• HTML version of the entire news release

The PDF version of the news release

Table of Contents

Last Modified Date: October 02, 2015

[citizen]

Dang, only 142K jobs added.

[mad_as_he$$]

I think the “wise” people were looking for 203K.

[DAC21]

Big miss across the board, July and Aug adjusted down UNEXPECTEDLY as well. Only slightly better U6 number.

[citizen]

Jobs number knocked futures into triple negative
S&P 500
1,897.50 -19.25 -1.01%
DJIA
16,061.00 -129.00 -0.80%
NASDAQ 100
4,146.00 -41.50 -1.00%

[babble-on]

Yes, a weak number. And puts pressure on the Fed yet again to hold fire at the October meeting. It’s tragicomic.

[expat_panama]

That’s the establishment number. The broader household number shows a drop of 350,000 fewer jobs. The unemployment rate stays at 5.1 because 579,000 left the workforce.

[expat_panama]

knocked futures into triple negative

Stock indexes now at -0.96%, and metals are up 1.18%.  We'll see how this holds out tho, if it can change for this it can change for something else too (mho).

[Buckeye McFrog]

Only Washington bureaucrats could take 3 1/2 pages to say “the economy sucks”.

[citizen]

The broader household number shows a drop of 350,000 fewer jobs. The unemployment rate stays at 5.1 because 579,000 left the workforce.

The 350k and 579k figures sound worse than the headline number. I guess that's why the DJIA is -226 at the moment.

[abb]

The markets are back to just about even. WTH is going on?

[abb]

Dow up 50. It’s rigged, I tell ya!!!!!

[expat_panama]

Dow up 50. It’s rigged, I tell ya!!!!!

Dang you caught me!  Yeah, I rigged it this morning when the jobs numbers came out and Yellen called me up to tell me she sending me another helicopter load of money fresh of the press.  My plan was to un-rig it later on if that's ok w/ you...

[abb]

But you were supposed to tell me, so that we could both get in at the bottom, dammit!!!1