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Winner-take-all Florida primary could hurt Jeb Bush
Tampa Bay Times ^ | 9/12/15 | Adam C Smith

Posted on 09/13/2015 5:19:43 AM PDT by jimbo123

In late 2014, GOP leaders in Florida were pretty certain of a couple of things: Marco Rubio would never run for president if his mentor, Jeb Bush, did; and if either ran, he would be a lock to win Florida's Republican presidential primary.

That's why, after Bush signaled he was likely to run, Republican legislative leaders set the 2016 Florida primary for March 15 — and made the primary winner-take-all, rather than a primary in which several candidates could divide the state's 100 or so delegates proportionally. It was a gift to Bush, to ensure he could count on winning a big pile of delegates in case he did not dominate earlier contests.

"Can we get that gift back?" Republican political consultant Ana Navarro, a zealous Bush advocate and ubiquitous TV pundit, quipped Thursday night while speaking at the Poynter Institute for Media Studies in St. Petersburg.

Contrary to the old conventional wisdom, Rubio did get into the race and another giant force emerged to threaten everybody's plans. His name is Donald Trump, and Navarro acknowledged her fear that Trump could win Florida's primary.

Rubio and Bush may well cannibalize one another's votes, she said, leaving Trump to scoop up a winning plurality of antiestablishment votes.

(Excerpt) Read more at tampabay.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bush; deportjebbush; designatedloser; election2016; florida; gope; jebbush; rnc
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1 posted on 09/13/2015 5:19:43 AM PDT by jimbo123
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To: jimbo123

Bwahahaha Jeb can’t win his home state


2 posted on 09/13/2015 5:27:51 AM PDT by Fai Mao (Genius at Large)
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To: jimbo123

Slow jeb and Rubio will look real good with that broke off in them.


3 posted on 09/13/2015 5:32:44 AM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: jimbo123

Sorry Ana, you’re not as smart as you think you are. Was it your ‘consulting’ that gave Jeb that ‘joyful tortoise’ nonsense? I wouldn’t doubt it.

Now go home and practice your meatballs.


4 posted on 09/13/2015 5:34:12 AM PDT by MichaelCorleone (Jesus Christ is not a religion. He's the Truth.)
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To: jimbo123

The Donald can win
Florida
New York
and Texas
on his way to a LANDSLIDE,
(exceptions include the no-longer-America Far Left Coast of Amerikastan)


5 posted on 09/13/2015 5:34:49 AM PDT by Macoozie ("Estoy votando por Ted 2016!" bumper stickers available)
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To: Macoozie
I don't know about NY, and I'm sure he can't win CA. It's further left than China right now. But many other pickups are possible, including MI, NM, NH, OR, CO, NV, NC. I don't know that OH and VA are as solid as they were for Bush, but clearly doable if Kasich and Gilmore don't torpedo Trump there.

WI, PA, and NJ, the eternal teasers, are entirely doable this time.

6 posted on 09/13/2015 5:39:20 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: jimbo123
So satisfying. The RINOs tried to fix it for "!" and now Trump is poised to take all 100 delegates in one swell poop.

This is why I remain convinced that the party will simple change the rules again and direct the delegates to "vote their conscience" (hand pick them with instructions to vote for "!") regardless as to the actual primary vote. If Trump is still leading going into January, look for other RINO fixers to push this in their states.

7 posted on 09/13/2015 5:40:53 AM PDT by Sirius Lee (Cruz or Lose 2016)
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To: HANG THE EXPENSE

It’s quite obvious that the voters are sick and tired of typical politicians, their rhetoric and empty promises.

The voters want someone who will get right to the point, say what they mean and will do what he said, politically correct or not. In the race to become POTUS, it appears that Trump is the ONLY candidate who will do that although Cruz is a second choice. Combined with Trump, the two would be unbeatable.


8 posted on 09/13/2015 5:41:57 AM PDT by DaveA37
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To: Macoozie

“(exceptions include the no-longer-America Far Left Coast of Amerikastan)z”

I am not sure that Trump could not take California. I have some friends who are typical guilty white liberals who would really like the Hispanic gangs in San Diego deported. The illegal immigration issue sort of cuts through party lines


9 posted on 09/13/2015 5:42:05 AM PDT by Fai Mao (Genius at Large)
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To: Macoozie

Now go home and practice your meatballs.

If by that your talking about Meatball Jebba the Hutt
and Rubberio, they are her two meatballs, who didn’t factor in that Americans don’t like the illegals or H1b immigrants taking their jobs, sucking up welfare, free education, food stamps, etc.

Funny thing is that Real American Hispanics who are USA citizens are 50 percent against amnesty. Her two meatballs are on the wrong track, that is why Trump is clobbering them in their home state of Florida.


10 posted on 09/13/2015 5:42:17 AM PDT by Zenjitsuman (A)
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To: LS

Well, I think there are two things to consider. 1) talking Republican Primary, the idea that he couldn’t win NY or California is not so far outside the realm of possibility, and 2) should he get California, New York and/or Florida, he might just win the nomination. I think THIS is what Jebito’s people are really worried about - him winning one or more of these states in the primaries.


11 posted on 09/13/2015 5:44:02 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: jimbo123

12 posted on 09/13/2015 5:46:17 AM PDT by Vaquero ( Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: Fai Mao
I have some friends who are typical guilty white liberals who would really like the Hispanic gangs in San Diego deported.

Just remind them that when you're inside the voting booth, nobody knows what you do...

13 posted on 09/13/2015 5:50:41 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (It's time to repeal and replace the GOP)
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To: DaveA37

That’s the way I would love to see this play out. Trump/ Cruz.


14 posted on 09/13/2015 5:50:44 AM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Gaffer
Ok, sure, if you're talking primary, I know this seems crazy in mid-Sept., but I could see him winning every single primary. Now, that might mean Kasich and Walker drop out. As of now, he wouldn't win OH or WI. But I think he would carry every other state in a primary, including NY and CA.

I was thinking general. But expanding on your thought---if indeed Trump had a very significant victory in a general, say taking all but MA, CA, CT, WA, IL, NY---the panic and fear in the GOPe could be cut with a knife.

No matter what their ideologies, the DC people have to eat, and if they are no longer needed (consultants, pundits, etc), they will flee to Trump for work.

15 posted on 09/13/2015 5:51:39 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Sirius Lee

If that happens, there will be a riot at GOP Convention. Thousands will show up and be ready to storm the place.


16 posted on 09/13/2015 5:53:02 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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To: jimbo123

Almost as bad as the establishment’s embrace of big government RINOs is their desire to control the primaries and control whom we choose as our nominee. Perhaps Karma will teach them a lesson that human decency seems to have failed in communicating. They should run the primaries as fair elections and accept the nominee that republican voters choose (in closed primaries!).


17 posted on 09/13/2015 5:53:21 AM PDT by Pollster1 ("Shall not be infringed" is unambiguous.)
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To: LS

Regardless of what anyone thinks of him as a legitimate and qualified candidate, he represents a clear and present danger to Republican status quo and those sycophants, pundits, journalists and consultants who make their living off of being ‘conservative’ and “in the know about politics”. You’re right, they would be scared. But I submit they are already scared - deeply so.


18 posted on 09/13/2015 5:55:21 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: jimbo123

¡No Yeb Boooosh!


19 posted on 09/13/2015 5:57:48 AM PDT by Basket_of_Deplorables (Cruz2Victory!)
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Various type primaries, caucuses, and allocation of delegates.

Source: The Green Papers

Delegate Selection Tally
Caucus/Convention 17
Proportional Primary 10
Winner-Take-All 7
District: Winner-Take-All Primary, Statewide: if winner receives a majority Winner-Take-All Primary otherwise Proportional Primary 5
Winner-Take-All (by district and statewide) 5
District: Winner-Take-All or top two; Statewide: Proportional 3
In each district and statewide - if winner receives a majority Winner-Take-All Primary otherwise Proportional Primary 2
Loophole Primary 2
If winner receives a majority Winner-Take-All Primary otherwise Proportional Primary 1
Delegate Selection Primary 1
Proportional Caucus/Convention 1
Combined Selection [Winner-Take-All Primary for District Delegates with Caucus/Convention] 1
Combined Selection [Proportional Primary with Caucus/Convention] 1

Voter Eligibility Tally
Closed Primary 16
Closed Caucus 15
Open Primary 12
Modified Primary 9
Open Caucus 2
Not applicable 1
Modified Caucus 1

20 posted on 09/13/2015 5:59:31 AM PDT by deport
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