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A Significant Reassessment of the GOP Race
Roll CaLL ^ | September 9, 2015 | Stuart Rothenberg

Posted on 09/09/2015 10:46:16 AM PDT by Hojczyk

Republican Donald Trump isn’t going away anytime soon, I now believe.

That assessment doesn’t mean I think Trump is the favorite for the Iowa caucuses or the GOP nomination, but it does reflect a fundamental shift in my thinking.

I can no longer say that with any certainty, though it remains the single most likely outcome.

Trump’s favorable rating jumped from 27 percent in the May Selzer & Company’s Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics to 61 percent in the August 23-25 Selzer survey. At the same time, his unfavorable rating dropped from 63 percent to a more manageable 35 percent.

Trump’s positioning improved in other ways, as well. In May, a clear majority of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers — 58 percent — said they could never support him. That number fell to 29 percent in the most recent Selzer poll.

Remarkably, more likely caucus attendees said they could never vote for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (43 percent), New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (48 percent), Ohio Gov. John R. Kasich (40 percent), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (39 percent), former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (35 percent) and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (35 percent) than said they could never support Trump for president.

Trump’s image in Iowa has improved at the same time his flaws, shortcomings and liabilities have become more apparent. For now, however, many voters just don’t seem to care. The Trump persona is compelling.

A friend of mine who has spent many years in politics recently emailed me from a Florida airport after sitting next to two women who were lifelong Democrats but intended to vote for Trump.

“They think someone needs to fundamentally change the political culture. They believe his policies are less important than his no-bullshit posture. Amazing,” he wrote.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.rollcall.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: Kentucky; US: New Jersey; US: New York; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bencarson; chrischristie; dupe; election2016; florida; fool; gope; iowa; jebbush; johnkasich; kentucky; newjersey; newyork; ohio; pennsylvania; rickperry; ricksantorum; scottwalker; tedcruz; texas; trump; wisconsin

1 posted on 09/09/2015 10:46:16 AM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: Hojczyk

This is why he will get a lot of democrat votes..

A friend of mine who has spent many years in politics recently emailed me from a Florida airport after sitting next to two women who were lifelong Democrats but intended to vote for Trump.

“They think someone needs to fundamentally change the political culture. They believe his policies are less important than his no-bullshit posture. Amazing,” he wrote.


2 posted on 09/09/2015 10:48:00 AM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: Hojczyk

But Trump is proving to be a successful demagogue who understands how to manipulate the media and voters’ feelings of anger. And that makes the Republican race more unpredictable than ever.

Guess he does not get it yet..


3 posted on 09/09/2015 10:49:53 AM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: Hojczyk

Congratulations, Stuart, on recognizing during the second week of September what most outside the Beltway recognized by late June.


4 posted on 09/09/2015 10:51:32 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88

You always nail every single bull’s eye.


5 posted on 09/09/2015 10:54:50 AM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming)
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To: Will88

“A friend of mine who has spent many years in politics recently emailed me from a Florida airport after sitting next to two women who were lifelong Democrats but intended to vote for Trump. “

What about the 40% independent vote? Trump might even take celebrity enamored California, barring a major F up. I’m for Cruz, by the way, since day one. The MSM has apparently agreed to not film or even mention the name Cruz, so his best bet is VP.


6 posted on 09/09/2015 10:59:30 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: Hojczyk
And The Donald sports a Mullet….

Just like the Spartans

The Spartans had 300 to defeat the heathen hordes

But The Donald has a tight group of 35 on his campaign staff against the combined might of the MSM, dims and assorted communist, socialists and GOPe.

7 posted on 09/09/2015 10:59:49 AM PDT by spokeshave (If an illegal alien is undocumented immigrant a drug dealer is an unlicensed pharmacist)
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To: Hojczyk

“Republican Donald Trump isn’t going away anytime soon, I now believe. “

gee, what gave Stu a clue?


8 posted on 09/09/2015 11:10:38 AM PDT by DaxtonBrown (http://www.futurnamics.com/reid.php)
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To: stephenjohnbanker
What about the 40% independent vote? Trump might even take celebrity enamored California, barring a major F up.

And the recent poll that showed Trump with 25% support of black Americans. If he continues to improve his campaign and issues more excellent position papers, there is no telling how much unexpected support he might win. He could start leading in states no Republican has won since Reagan.

Trump needs Cruz if that's how things work out. Just watching Cruz and then Trump speak at the anti-Iran idiot deal a few minutes ago clearly showed the strengths of each.

9 posted on 09/09/2015 11:11:18 AM PDT by Will88
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To: RitaOK
You always nail every single bull’s eye.

Wow, high praise. But establishment folks like Stuart Rothenburg and others are making it pretty easy during this presidential campaign. Trump has shorted out half the brain pathways they have used so often in the past.

10 posted on 09/09/2015 11:13:51 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88

LOL!


11 posted on 09/09/2015 11:15:50 AM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming)
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To: Will88

” Just watching Cruz and then Trump speak at the anti-Iran idiot deal a few minutes ago clearly showed the strengths of each. “

Yes it did.


12 posted on 09/09/2015 11:17:19 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: Hojczyk
They believe his policies are less important than his no-bullshit posture. Amazing. . . .

It is amazing. I look at his policies--his liberal views, past and present--and I reject him. I don't care that he's got a big mouth and is full of bluster.

13 posted on 09/09/2015 11:21:22 AM PDT by Charles Henrickson (Social and constitutional conservative)
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To: Hojczyk

Stuart has gotten a clue. Trump has wide appeal. He will win the general election in a landslide.


14 posted on 09/09/2015 11:22:01 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only po f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Hojczyk

“They believe his policies are less important than his no-bullshit posture. “

This is the single biggest driver of Trumps success. When people say they want change in politics, it’s the BS they want gone.


15 posted on 09/09/2015 11:52:46 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (Trump campaign ad: Trump, in his Apprentice chair, saying "America, you're hired")
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
In May, a clear majority of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers -- 58 percent -- said they could never support him. That number fell to 29 percent in the most recent Selzer poll. Remarkably, more likely caucus attendees said they could never vote for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (43 percent), New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (48 percent), Ohio Gov. John R. Kasich (40 percent), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (39 percent), former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (35 percent) and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (35 percent) than said they could never support Trump for president.

16 posted on 09/09/2015 12:34:19 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (What do we want? REGIME CHANGE! When do we want it? NOW)
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