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A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
Fivethirtyeight ^ | 8/31/2015 | Nate Silver

Posted on 08/31/2015 1:58:17 PM PDT by rickyrikardo

One question we’ve asked about Donald Trump’s campaign is what would happen if another candidate were to get a surge of media coverage, throwing a wrench in the works of Trump’s perpetual attention machine. Based on the latest polls, we may soon get the best test of this question since Trump entered the race.

The potential surger is Ben Carson, the much-awarded neurosurgeon who is running for political office for the first time. Carson is near the top of the Republican field in two new polls of Iowa. A Monmouth University poll has Carson with 23 percent of the vote and tied for the lead with Trump, while the Des Moines Register’s poll has Carson in second place, with 18 percent of the vote to Trump’s 23 percent. Carson has also been gaining ground in national polls and is in second place behind Trump, according to Huffington Post Pollster’s averaging method.

Carson’s gains in the polls have come organically — in fact, he’s been receiving remarkably little media attention. From June 28 through Aug. 20, Carson received only 0.9 percent of the news coverage of the top 161 Republican candidates, based on the number of Google News “hits” he received. That puts him at 14th in the field. Trump has received about 60 times more media coverage than Carson.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2ndamendment; carson; news; trump
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1 posted on 08/31/2015 1:58:17 PM PDT by rickyrikardo
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To: rickyrikardo

The natural inclination for the democrat/communist propaganda complex will be to try to egg them on into a fight with each other. If Trump does this, he can expect the media to play the race card, even if Carson doesn’t.


2 posted on 08/31/2015 2:00:25 PM PDT by henkster (Ms. Clinton, are you a criminal or just really stupid?)
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To: rickyrikardo

I like Carson and what he says, but i just don’t see the toughness necessary to go eyeball to eyeball with Vlad Putin, the chicoms, the NORKs, or some raghead muzzie.


3 posted on 08/31/2015 2:00:30 PM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (America for Americans - what's wrong with that?)
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To: rickyrikardo
Ben Carson is likely benefiting from potential Trump supporters who aren't ready to come out of the closet yet.

It's a way for you to park your vote with a guy who, like Trump, is a non politician. If Ben Carson wasn't in this race, we'd see Carly with much better numbers.

4 posted on 08/31/2015 2:01:11 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (We gave GOP the majority to take care of business and they let us down. Time for Trump/Cruz)
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To: rickyrikardo

Not really. They appeal to very different groups of people.

My issues with Carson are:

- he is squishy on the Second Amendment
- he is anti-liberty on vaccines
- he claims to be pro-life but apparently used to refer certain patients to abortionists.

Not to dispute that he is a brilliant man.


5 posted on 08/31/2015 2:01:19 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: rickyrikardo
HOW did Carson go from single digits to >20% in a week?

Did he say something really really interesting?

I mean, I like the doctor but c'mon.

6 posted on 08/31/2015 2:02:02 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: rickyrikardo

Now we see the new strategy coming into view.

Rove and surrogates have identified that polls have helped shape Trump’s aura of invincibility. Therefore, a launch of paid/push polls showing Trump is vulnerable might deflate his balloon.

They are testing the waters with this a trial balloon.

Wonder how Donald’s people will react.


7 posted on 08/31/2015 2:02:20 PM PDT by Hostage (ARTICLE V)
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To: rickyrikardo

Oh, for cryin out loud.

I didn’t realize being a journalist was so damn easy.

Identify a shift in whatever, give your moron opinion.


8 posted on 08/31/2015 2:02:21 PM PDT by Eddie01
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To: The Sons of Liberty

I agree. He’s a wonderful man, but not tough enough.

Trump would be wise to praise Carson, even say he would consider him a good VP pick. That may throw some support his way.


9 posted on 08/31/2015 2:03:48 PM PDT by JudyinCanada
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To: Hostage

nailed it.
contrived.
hit Trump on inevitability.
thanks.


10 posted on 08/31/2015 2:03:58 PM PDT by Eddie01
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To: rickyrikardo

Ben Carson is being used by the MSM as a tool to attack Donald Trump.

None of the MSM people like or agree with Dr. Carson. They hate him and all that he stands for. But they will use him for their purposes.


11 posted on 08/31/2015 2:04:04 PM PDT by detective
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To: skeeter

It is not true that Carson went from single digits to >20% in one week. No Iowa poll was conducted a week ago where Carson was in single digits. You made that up.


12 posted on 08/31/2015 2:04:13 PM PDT by rickyrikardo
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To: rickyrikardo

Trump just has to say, Look I like Ben Carson. He’s a great doctor and a wise man. He’s probably a better man then me. But we’re in a fight for our country right now and we don’t need a nice guy. We need a warrior.


13 posted on 08/31/2015 2:04:49 PM PDT by DouglasKC (I'm pro-choice when it comes to lion killing....)
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To: rickyrikardo

It would not surprise me if Trump’s intention was to be challenged, give candidates with mettle a chance to break free of the GOPe.


14 posted on 08/31/2015 2:05:29 PM PDT by gunsequalfreedom (Conservative is not a label of convenience. It is a guide to your actions.)
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To: rickyrikardo
In Trump vs Putin or Carson vs Putin

Trump trumps Carson.

15 posted on 08/31/2015 2:06:02 PM PDT by spokeshave (If an illegal alien is undocumented immigrant a drug dealer is an unlicensed pharmacist)
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To: rickyrikardo

Trump, Carson, Cruz, who cares. 14 months to go. The real news is the RINOs are sinking like bricks.


16 posted on 08/31/2015 2:06:12 PM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: henkster

Well the media would sure like Ben Carson to surge ahead, anything to stop Trump.

Trouble for Carson is, he might be smart, but he has no business or administrative experience. Being CEO is most like being President, and the economy will be a primary issue in this election - both which favor Trump.


17 posted on 08/31/2015 2:06:28 PM PDT by canuck_conservative
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To: skeeter

Agreed, what is going on?


18 posted on 08/31/2015 2:06:57 PM PDT by glenduh
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To: rickyrikardo

19 posted on 08/31/2015 2:06:59 PM PDT by anymouse (God didn't write this sitcom we call life, he's just the critic.)
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To: DouglasKC

We need a warrior...just not the kind of warrior that didn’t go to war due to a “bone spur” on his foot.


20 posted on 08/31/2015 2:07:43 PM PDT by rickyrikardo
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