Posted on 08/05/2015 3:51:52 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Every political analyst, every political observer, every politician is absolutely sure that Donald Trump is not going to be the Republican nominee for president in 2016. And we’re all absolutely sure that Donald Trump is not going to be sworn in as president on January 20, 2017. Could we all be wrong?
So far, every poll seems to only be giving him more strength. Who would have thought even a month ago that as we enter the first GOP debate of the presidential election that Donald Trump, The Donald Trump, would be the leader in every single national poll and gaining strength in all the early primary and caucus states? Time and time again, in just a few weeks, his candidacy seems to have survived what we professional political observers all think are obviously fatal gaffes and flubs. Could this be the rare instance when politics is actually about to go haywire?
If you threw a ball up in the air and it didn’t come down, what would you think? Maybe it landed on the roof or got stuck in a tree. You would not think that the Law of Gravity had been repealed.
So if you’re trying to figure out why Donald Trump has so far left the political class in a state of stunned disbelief, it might be wise not to abandon every assumption about politics, but to ask a different question: When and why do voters behave in ways that seem to break the rules? When are bedrock assumptions about campaigns rendered at least temporarily inoperative? In this context, poll numbers taken months before an election don’t count; while they can measure a public mood, the choice of a candidate is something like a customer in a store trying on hats. The more telling question is: When do voters actually cast their ballots in ways that upend core premises?
One answer, based not on guesses about what might happen, but on what has happened in America’s political past is that when disaffected voters discover a power that they did not realize they had, highly unanticipated consequences may follow.
For instance, if you were choosing a state that would abandon the two major parties and elect a one-time professional wrestler governor, Minnesota might not be high on your list. It’s among our most literate states; its voter turnout is always at or near the top. But in fact, Minnesota has an historical appetite for alternatives. The Farmer-Labor Party elected governors, senators, and House members back in the ’20s and ’30s (it merged with the Democratic Party in 1944).
Moreover, in Jesse “The Body” Ventura, voters saw something more than the flamboyant showman who proclaimed, “Win if you can, lose if you must, but always cheat!” He’d been a talk show host with a gift for asking smart, probing questions, and mayor of a fair-sized town (Brooklyn Park was the sixth biggest city in the state).
That recognition was enough to put his poll numbers above 20 percent as the fall election began—and those poll numbers had two critical consequences. First, it gained him entry into the gubernatorial debates, which put him on an equal footing with his major party rivals. Second, it all but guaranteed that under the state’s campaign finance laws, Ventura would receive significant funds after the election—which in turn enabled his campaign to borrow hundreds of thousand of dollars for a highly effective advertising campaign. The ads featured Ventura in the pose of Rodin’s “The Thinker” sculpture, and a plea for voters not to vote for “politics as usual.”
Since voters had the chance to see Ventura as a viable candidate, the normal falloff for a third party candidate did not happen; instead, he won a narrow victory over St. Paul Mayor (and future Senator) Norm Coleman and Attorney General Hubert Humphrey III. Enough voters decided: “Hey! We can do this!” to shock the political establishment.
“Frankly,” said Chris Gilbert, chairman of the political science department at Gustavus Adolphus College in St. Peter, “we the analysts and the media, we regarded Ventura as a cute curiosity.” And, in a comment that resonates powerfully with today’s Trump phenomenon, consider what 28-year-old aircraft mechanic Greg Uken told the New York Times about why he was voting for Ventura: “I don’t put up with a lot of stuff, and neither does he.”
[break the rules] == [vote contrary to the wishes of the MSM]
and contrary to the GOPe Washington insiders lifetime politicians
I wonder if these supporters hate the GOPe/MSM more than they love Trump?
Anyways, I think it's Trumps message and the manner that he sends it out that attracts his supporters.
Well what I learned after 2008 with Obama is that ANYBODY can get elected given the right circumstances and mood in the country. For that matter I still don’t think there was anything particularly special about Obama’s political skills, I think any democrat would have won that election because of the national mood.
Break the rule in the sense that there has never been a president without previous political or military experience. Wendell Wilkie I think was the only nominee to fit that bill and of course he lost in a landslide.
Americans are fed up with the Halfrican Pansy destroying the country and ruining their futures and thsoe of their children/grandchildren. Trump is a two-fisted anti-Obama, and this time the pendulum might swing back the other way.
One caution: Is Trump really a Constitutional conservative? That’s an important question. Don’t like his pronouncements about a new socialized medicine scheme for veterans. Is he a limited Govt. guy, or is he a big Govt. oligarch, like Heb or other Rovian RINO GOPe candidates?
“Could we all be wrong?”
“break the rules?”
Whose “rules?” You mean that cozy Oligarchy in DC? You know, that body politic selling out US citizens for 30 million pieces of silver? The GOPe?
We The People have our own rules. Get used to it. We are taking back our party.
Greenfield, your attempt at putting Jesse Ventura and Donald Trump in the same context is a FAIL. You couldn’t be more obvious.
“I think any democrat would have won that election because of the national mood.”
And because at the end of the day W was a piss poor president who took us to a needless war in Iraq for ten years! Score one for Trump! Let people who need our military “services” pay for them and do it up front, and let there be a purpose and an end game before we start. Bush wasted our precious human resources and our money!
Gov. Palin as Vice President
Department of State – John Bolton
Department of Justice - Trey Gowdy
Department of Treasury – Steve Forbes
Department of War, (change the name back.) - LTC. West
Department of Interior, (includes former Agriculture, Transportaion, and Energy legitimate functions) - Carly Fiorina
Department of Labor and Commerce, – Gov. Walker
Department of Health and Human Services, (includes VA functions) – Doctor Benjamin Carson
Department of Homeland Security – Gov. Martinez
Department of Education - ELIMINATE
Department of Housing and Urban Development – ELIMINATE
Like it, except get rid of Labor & Commerce, too.
Apparently we are not the only ones, watch this Utube, Egyptian News speaking of the CLOWN in chief. They can't believe it either.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXodRLLkth4&feature=youtu.be
Sorry I can't make it clickable anymore.
You are all heart.
>> Could we all be wrong?
I never dreamed that watching pundits flop-sweat could be so much FUN!!!
It's been observed for a while that an attempted coverup is more damaging than the original act.
I would add to that, that attempting to retreat from a "gaff" is more damaging than going with it, especially if you said what you actually feel. People like honesty.
When Trump comes out with an opinion which upsets people, his attitude is "If you're upset, that's your problem". It's refreshing.
You don’t even MENTION the most evil of all the administration’s bureaus — EPA.
This link proves what I’ve been saying that ALL politicians are owned by big daddy donors, lobbyists and China:
http://www.wnd.com/2015/03/shadowy-chinese-billionaire-behind-2m-to-clinton-foundation/
Trump is the only one speaking out against China and illegals. Proves all politicians are owned by China or interests dependent on China.
All other politicians had never spoken against China. Oh now some may be trying to copy Trump. but they never did in the past proving they are owned by China
Look at the AP and media are also trying to make Trump quit
Funny that many on this forum are also trying to bash Trump: these are working for free for politicians who are all bought and paid for
The media, the establishment, politicians are against us Americans and against Trump. Trump is our only chance to save America and our livelihoods
Rules? In a knife fight?
Eliminate. One of Bush's biggest mistake was creating this monster. The FBI and CIA should be doing this work.
Eliminate Energy, Education, and EPA.
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