Posted on 07/25/2015 6:58:05 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The Supreme Court's recent decision to make gay marriage legal nationwide was a significant victory for liberals. In next year's election, however, the decision will hurt Democrats. Success, after all, presents it own set of challenges.
As sociologists Mayer Zald and Roberta Ash pointed out in their classic 1966 study of social movement organizations, the two biggest challenges of a social movement are complete success and complete failure (Social Forces 44 (March)).
The ideal situation for maintaining a social movement, they wrote, would be to "over time always [seem] to be getting closer to its goal without quite attaining it."
Now that the social movement to enact gay marriage has achieved complete success, it will no longer be a mobilizing force in elections. This is bad news for Democrats.
While Democratic candidates will, no doubt, remind voters of Republican opposition to gay marriage, the important points are that 1) other issues will be a priority to voters, 2) donors who mainly want to make gay marriage legal will no longer give money, and 3) volunteers mostly concerned about gay marriage will be less likely to give their time. The energy of the gay marriage movement has been sapped and will no longer be useful for Democrats.
Also, the nation has not moved in as much of a liberal direction as some pundits might have you believe. While the Court's gay marriage ruling, and President Obama's electoral victories appear to suggest a leftward swing, the reality is quite different.
Currently, the nation is ruled by Democrats with regard to the White House and most large cities and ruled by Republicans with regard to Congress, most state legislatures and most state governorships. Each party can count on the support of about four and a half members of the Supreme Court, with degrees of variation depending on the issue.
In other words, political power is divided between the two political parties. Republicanism is not dead, as liberal Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen suggested after the Supreme Court gay marriage decision.
Results from a Washington Post poll published Wednesday show that most Americans already believe the country has moved too far left. When asked if they were "comfortable or uncomfortable with the country['s] overall direction on social issues these days," 63 percent answered "uncomfortable." The same percentage of self-identified moderates agreed.
The gay rights movement will continue to work on other issues, of course. Non-discrimination ordinances will likely be the focus of most of its efforts. Much of the debate over these ordinances will center on the wording, or existence of, the religious exemption. Will religious organizations that believe homosexuality is a sin be forced to hire non-celibate gays, for instance?
While the movement for gay marriage was a coalition of liberals and libertarians, the gay rights movement's agenda after gay marriage will likely be smaller, especially if it overreaches by seeking to infringe the religious freedom of gay marriage dissenters.
As Scott Schackford wrote for the libertarian website Reason.com, there are a few issues where the gay rights movement can still count on libertarian support, but on many other they will "part ways."
The gay rights movement can advance a moderate agenda with broad support, or it can seek a narrow agenda that mobilizes its most loyal supporters to oppose Republicans, but it cannot do both.
Either approach to religious freedom by the gay rights movement will make it less of a force in the next election. If it promotes its agenda while supporting religious freedom, it will not present a clear partisan divide, which means it will be less of an issue in the election. If it promotes its agenda while not supporting religious freedom, it will alienate moderate voters.
The future is not pre-determined, of course. Gay rights is only one factor among many that will determine the outcome of the next election. The important point is that the Supreme Court's gay marriage decision will hurt more than help Democrats from this point forward.
What ultimately happens in the next election will depend on the choices made by people. As The Christian Post previously pointed out, if Republicans do not fix their own electoral problems, they could lose big for many elections to come. Similarly, Democrats can make adjustments to help them win the next election.
Additionally, Republicans have demonstrated a capacity to lose winnable elections by making dumb remarks that turn off voters. Democrats can hope this will happen again. But, while "hope" can be a campaign slogan, it is not a campaign strategy.
“The ideal situation for maintaining a social movement, they wrote, would be to “over time always [seem] to be getting closer to its goal without quite attaining it.”
Perhaps they could become diplomats.
Well last time the Republican won, nothing changed. The RINOs were just put in charge and the UniParty voted against America eery chance it got. I can’t think of anything they did to help The People. In fact it just seeemed to get worse. I’m not voting party line anymore. I’m choosing the best man for the job but only after I’ve scrutinized him.
Well last time the Republican won, nothing changed. The RINOs were just put in charge and the UniParty voted against America eVery chance it got. I can’t think of anything they did to help The People. In fact it just seeemed to get worse. I’m not voting party line anymore. I’m choosing the best man for the job but only after I’ve scrutinized him.
Repubs could lose seats too. If repubs offer up someone like Jeb, conservatives staying at home may help a few demos take a few seats.
Still waiting to hear the outrage from “Black Christians” over gay marriage.
As far as I am concerned, “Black Christians” traded in their faith for 30 pieces of silver in the form of welfare handouts.
How long ago was abortion legalized? And how often do the Dems still trot it out as an election issue?
It is an error of identification to think that Christian means the same thing to blacks and whites. Note how popular Rev Wright is as a guest speaker.
But already the gay marriage lobby is going on to the next issue - they are not complacently enjoying their victory. For many the next great cause is to restrict the First Amendment rights of Christians. For others the next cause is to push the sexual boundaries even more by suporting polygamy and trans this, trans that (the legalized sexual slavery of children is one of their big goals, just over the horizon). The White House lighted in gay colors was just one step in a huge revolution.
Go figure......in spite of the trend in TV for virtually every new show to have those gay people who only want to love, honor and hug and kiss (only) their loving partners, somehow significant numbers of Americans realize that it’s not just that “huggy kissy” relationship.
While I would like to think so, after eight years of Obama, I have lost faith in the American people to do the right thing.
The dems can also always depend on conservatives staying home of the candidate isn’t 100% pure. Mr. Obama thanks you.
Good.
WHY I HAVE AN ILLUMINATED CROSS AS A PROTEST
When are those so called democrats who are really “democratic” in name only and belong to a political party which espouses one perfect world socialist state ever going to be called out on their core beliefs ? Nooo that wouldn’t be bi-partisan
which espouses one perfect world socialist state ever going to be called out on their core beliefs ? Nooo that wouldn’t be bi-partisan !
Ask any of those so called GOPES (Government Over the People Elite Statists) campaign advisors about depressing the “democrat” vote and you get a lecture.Democrat core beliefs showed up with booing the mention of God in 2012 which made it official.
They’ve declared a war on religion because it opposes their agenda particularly Christianity.Which I for one now have an illumiuated crucifix at night in my front yard facing the street (Highway) as a statement. And encourage others do as well
A DEMOCRAT apparently doesn’t believe there’s such a thing as the Ten Commandments or sin because everything that leaves their mouths is a lie. But I have yet to hear a Republican candidate even suggest even in jest mention why “democrat” lying is part of their core belief ? Never mind the use of their positions promoting crony capitalism campaign contributers who took our money to finance alternate energy plans spending billions that went belly up at our expense while leaving our infastructure to fall apart......
Why ? Because it isn’t being bi-partisan or lets not forget the other trap being politically correct.. Which is nothing more than a perverted effort to silence opposition to a socialist agenda
They know about that concept, it’s why they keep changing the goalposts in order to ensure that sodomites are always “victims” somehow. The race baiting industry does the same thing. Now Harry Reid is pushing for “non-discrimination” of the poor poor put-upon sodomites, because Bblical Christians just refuse to accept them as they are, and join in the universal celebration of their depravity by such means as decorating sodomite mirage cakes explicitly celebrating sodomite mirages.
“Now that the social movement to enact gay marriage has achieved complete success, it will no longer be a mobilizing force in elections.”
Wrong.
The push for legal acceptance of further perversions will continue in earnest.
The push to punish resisters ever more harshly will continue. GLBTQA-XYZ is not nearly through with Christianity & others of conscience.
That will be the excuse for Roberts and Kennedy.
It’s a mistake to assume that only blacks are getting EBT. Food stamps are tied to socioeconomic status, not race, and one’s economic status may in turn be a result of either poor choices or circumstances, but always of the individual, not the individual’s skin.
It’s an even bigger mistake to lump together the innercity welfare-addicted thugs and their baby mamas, with middle class employed married balack Christians. The droopy drawers crowd is not sitting in the pews.
Jeremiah Wright’s mush of Malcolm X rants sprinkled with a light dose of Jesus is not typical of the black church in America. MLK’s brand of passive resistance —turn the other cheek, willingness to go to jail for Biblical principles, forgive and pray for one’s enemies—while promoting families headed by strong male role models—is by far the standard model.
Thing is, the mainstream media prefers to promote Jeremiah Wright, and does not as a rule put the Christ centered black church on TV.
We caught an inadvertent glimpse a few weeks ago, courtesy of Dylan Roof. The example of Christ’s mercy shown by those families was breath taking. So of course the media chose to sweep it aside quickly, and focus on Obama’s offkey attempt to pimp Amazing Grace for political benefit. That didn’t work too well either; the “is he serious?!?” look of incredulity on the faces of the choir members was classic. So now we get weeks of swill about confederate flags. Anything that points away from Jesus Christ.
I am a white Catholic. My parish is multi-racial. All are welcome, and all races attend. I’ve also attended predominantly black churches on occasion, both Catholic and Protestant. Real life is way better than the media spin.
On the radio and streaming on the internet, you can find one of my favorite black Protestant preachers, Dr. Tony Evans in Oak Cliff, Texas. He’s active in pro-life, traditional marriage, conservative causes. His program is The Urban Alternative. He points beyond the problems of blacks, to the ills of American society as a whole. The solution, he says, is to create Kingdom Men. Strong husbands and fathers who gather their families around the Bible. All good things flow from that. IMO we are not hearing enough of that message in the white churches.
Rant over. If I have offended anyone, I beg your pardon.
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