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It's Time To Call Off The Recession Watch
AET/BI ^ | James Pethokoukis

Posted on 06/05/2015 10:36:13 AM PDT by blam

James Pethokoukis
American Enterprise Institute
June 5, 2015

,a>

nonfarm payrolls,American Enterprise Institute

That negative first-quarter GDP report now seems far less worrisome and far more an outlier than it did initially. Recently Goldman Sachs said “that given the uncertainty around GDP it is better to focus on other indicators—especially employment—to gauge the cumulative progress of the recovery and the remaining amount of slack.”

By that measure, the U.S. economic recovery continues to plow forward after a slight early-year stumble. Nonfarm payrolls increased 280,000 in May, the largest gain since December, the Labor Department said this morning. Although the unemployment rate rose to 5.5% from a near seven-year low of 5.4% in April that was because nearly 400,000 people entered the labor force, boosting the participation rate up to 62.9%, from 62.8%. So unemployment rose rose for a good reason, as the employment rate also ticked up.

Even wage growth looked a bit peppier. The increase in average hourly earnings nudged the year-on-year gain to 2.3%, the largest rise since August 2013, according to Reuters. And with inflation low, these nominal wage gains are better than they first appear.

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: deflation; economy; finance; recession

1 posted on 06/05/2015 10:36:13 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Why? We’re still watching it......................


2 posted on 06/05/2015 10:40:27 AM PDT by Red Badger (Man builds a ship in a bottle. God builds a universe in the palm of His hand.............)
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To: blam

what are the economists smoking?? i want some of that!!


3 posted on 06/05/2015 10:41:46 AM PDT by SteveH
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To: blam
62.9%, from 62.8%

OMG! /s

4 posted on 06/05/2015 10:45:12 AM PDT by RckyRaCoCo
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To: blam

Finally, it’s over!

/s


5 posted on 06/05/2015 10:46:07 AM PDT by cuban leaf (The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
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To: blam

Bottom line, as long as the big government libs and Omama are running things (probably forever as the GOP stands for zero) we will have a recession, that’s what socialism does.


6 posted on 06/05/2015 10:47:35 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: blam

Just ignore whatever number is slumping and focus on the better numbers. When those numbers fall, look back at the original one. It might be slightly better. Jeez.


7 posted on 06/05/2015 10:48:03 AM PDT by ilgipper
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To: blam

American Enterprise Institute, bunch of Obama SHILLS!!

We’re deep in a depression and there is widespread starvation!!!


8 posted on 06/05/2015 10:48:08 AM PDT by babble-on
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To: blam

American Enterprise Institute, bunch of Obama SHILLS!!

We’re deep in a depression and there is widespread starvation!!!


9 posted on 06/05/2015 10:48:08 AM PDT by babble-on
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To: blam

May retail sales imploded, thanks to the effect of the Obamacare penalties on tax refunds. But they’ll probably find some way to fake that number, too.


10 posted on 06/05/2015 10:48:25 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves (Heteropatriarchal Capitalist)
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To: ilgipper

Who out there can help with a website showing these charts...not in small increments but from 80-today. Most I see show this to be a tepid at best period following a massive fall in 2008. Today’s numbers for unemployment, for example are full point higher than Bush’s 7th year. Yet supposedly the Bush years were terrible and we’re in a great boom time. Our side, once again, is so piss poor at staging an argument. It’s pathetic, really. Even our better advocates. The closest thing I’ve seen to effective is Newt as Speaker and Newt in 2012. He constantly pointed to the robust recovery numbers in Reagan’s third year vs. Obama’s poor numbers. That’s effective, and no one else does it.


11 posted on 06/05/2015 10:51:25 AM PDT by ilgipper
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To: cuban leaf
"Finally, it’s over!"

Whew!

12 posted on 06/05/2015 10:53:42 AM PDT by blam (Jeff Sessions For President)
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To: blam

The “recession” is permanent and they’ve cooked the books so much we don’t know how bad the economy really is. This writer must be a RAT.


13 posted on 06/05/2015 11:31:55 AM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: SteveH

Well, if they told the truth about the economy, they’d be racist.


14 posted on 06/05/2015 11:32:57 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: blam

Recession Watch?
What is that, a sundial on your wrist?

Sorta the opposite of an Apple Watch?


15 posted on 06/05/2015 11:33:36 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: blam

The current recovery, tepid as it is, is something like 71 months old. The average economic recovery of this country is 39 months. In my opinion, artificially low interest rates and a ton of deficit spending have allowed the ‘recovery’ to limp along (at a high eventual cost). But the policies of the Obama administration will never lead to self-sustaining growth. I believe that we are due for another recession soon, and it will be a doozy. I mean what are they going to do then? Lower rates. Deficit spend? Quantitative easing? Those bullets have all been fired.


16 posted on 06/05/2015 11:34:48 AM PDT by fhayek
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To: blam

It’s not about reality at this point but about controlling the information. So long as the liberal media economists are liberal first and economists second there will be nothing but good news!!! Happy days are here again. Damn all of us, are we going to believe our eyes, our incomes, our monthly budgets or are we going to believe these elitist economists?


17 posted on 06/05/2015 11:51:22 AM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: fhayek

I think you are DEAD ON CORRECT. The ‘recovery’ is being propelled by artificial mechanisms (low interest rates, money printing, etc...)... not by actual economic health. Eventually the economy will stop responding to these stimuli because it is literally fatigued with them. Money printing and federal spending might be OK, in some situations, as a short term injection, but as long term policy they are poison (Greece, anyone?). It’s like drinking too much water... it can literally kill you. Eventually our debt bubble is going to pop. It WILL be ugly.

We are definitely going to pay a huge price for this. The trick is to get in the right position ahead of time to avoid the bloodshed (like shorting ETFs and precious metals). But after it happens there will be a massive investment opportunity. JP Morgan once said that the best time to invest is when there’s blood in the streets.


18 posted on 06/05/2015 11:55:06 AM PDT by navyguy (The National Reset Button is pushed with the trigger finger.)
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To: fhayek

We’re going to lose a whole decade of prosperity,
even if everything doesn’t go to pot in September.


19 posted on 06/05/2015 11:57:44 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: blam

Good I’m sick of watching it get worse every month.


20 posted on 06/05/2015 12:24:59 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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