Posted on 05/28/2015 8:32:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
And your winner is… well, nobody, really. The first national poll of GOP presidential candidates since all of the new entrants announced came out this morning and as you might have expected, primary voters are splintering off into various corners rather than solidifying behind a consensus candidate this early in the proceedings. In fact, you can’t even pick out who an early “leader” is because it’s a five way tie at ten percent each. (From Time magazine online.)
The Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found the GOP field split evenly between former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, former neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Each earns 10% in a poll of potential Republican primary voters and caucus-goers…
The national survey holds limited predictive value in a race that will start off as a contest among early-state activists, but it will contribute to the culling process for the first GOP debate. Fox News, which is hosting the Aug 6. gathering, will invite the top 10 Republican candidates based on an average of national surveys.
Under the Fox News rules, the rest of the debate stage, according to the Quinnipiac poll, would include Paul, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, reality TV host Donald Trump, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry would be among those excluded.
The last paragraph of those three is the big news for most observers. The five way tie is a bit of an anomaly in terms of general statistics, but it’s really not all that surprising. Lots of fish have shown up in the pond and each is drawing a measurable number of eyeballs. None of those names at the top – with the possible exception of Huckabee – should come as a shock when the bar is set as low as ten percent. More surprising is the rest of the field of ten who would make the debate stage if it was set for this weekend. Carly Fiorina has edged up only slightly, but it’s enough to put her above the background noise level and claim a podium. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are no-brainers to be in the mix. But the fact that Trump and Christie are registering is a bit of a shock at this point. And how did Kasich make it onto the second rung of the ladder this fast?
For some of them to potentially be in a debate while Jinal and Perry sit on the bench just seems… wrong. As for Rick Santorum, he didn’t announce until after the poll was taken. (By the way, you can see the full results here.)
While it’s still not very predictive, I was a little surprised to see the only two names who are currently within striking distance of Hillary in the general.
Against Clinton though, only Rubio, and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul—who polls at 7% nationally among Republicans—would pose a threat if the election were held today. Clinton scores 46% to 42% against Paul, and 45% to 41% against Rubio, the poll found. All other Republicans poll multiples behind Clinton.
It’s far too early to take those last match-ups very seriously, but it’s something to watch. Of all the contenders, Rand Paul doesn’t seem like he’s got a very good shot at taking the Primary. Rubio, on the other hand, should wind up being a legitimate force in the race. But January is an eternity away in political terms so we can’t rule anyone out yet. Still, there’s some interesting food for thought in this sample, particularly the names in the bottom five of the top ten GOP hopefuls.
What we need in 2016, actually we need it now, but what we will REALLY need more than ever in 2016 is a conservative leader with the guts to push this country back to the Constitution for which it’s founded. That means we the people have to take a deep breath, and elect that leader no matter the consequences to ourselves as well provide a Congress for that leader to work with.
YES! Fight THEM on their own terms. It’s the only way to win is to kick their you-no-whats.
Who the heck are these people polling???
> primary voters are splintering off into various corners
> rather than solidifying behind a consensus candidate
This is precisely the desired outcome.
It will pave the way for a JEB Bush candidacy and a DemonRAT victory in Nov 2016.
What’s the point in repeat loser retreads like Trump, Huck, Santorum, and Fiorina, when we have CRUZ and WALKER??!!
“Who the heck are these people polling???”
The average low-information Republican primary voter?
Cruz or Walker.
Bush is the RNC’s designated loser.
Like McCain and Romney before him.
The Quinnipiac survey of 1.711 registered voters—including 679 Republican and 748 Democrats—was conducted from May 19-26, 2015. The overall sample as a margin of error of ±2.4 percentage points, while the Republican primary figures has a margin of error of ±3.8 points and the Democratic primary has a margin of error of ±3.6 percentage points.Pfffttt.... TOTAL nonsense. The majority of poll respondents were democrats, and were allowed to make choices on the REPUBLICAN candidates?!!
Cruz and Walker are both in very good shape. The debates are going to decide who the frontrunners are. Both are in position to be frontrunners with a good performance. Both are raising enough money to remain viable. Huck will fall when his announcement bounce dries up. Carson will step in it at some point. Trump is attacking Rubio and Bush. Way to early to panic over these things.
I'm hoping that accounts for Trump making the cut. It would be scary to think that a Republican-only sample would be that stupid.
Shaw lists 11 candidates in a 10-person debate.
nope, before each question it says “If Republican and Republican Leaner”
Quinnipiac University polls are full of shiite.
“The majority of poll respondents were democrats, and were allowed to make choices on the REPUBLICAN candidates?!!”
With the Republican debates being stage managed by Dim partisans posing as journalists, why would they not also weigh down the Republican preference polls with Dims? Do you expect Republicans to run their own debates or choose their own primary preferences?
...Who the heck are these people polling???...
Democrats
Shaw lists 11 candidates in a 10-person debate.
****************
That because Fiorina and Kasich are tied at 2% each. If Fox where to use
the top ten rule then they will have some tie breaker in place I’d guess.
The only national poll I’m believing is the one that happens on election day.
With the high possibility of so many dead people voting it won’t matter anyway.
QU was dead wrong about every midterm race and yet they still get peddle by the K street amnesty-biots run Hotgas website.
The polls are so wrong that have to pure lies .
Why does Hotgas promote a GOP primary poll which has more Dems ?
Has QU and Hotgas every peddle A Dem primary poll with more Gop voters.
No.
Not before EACH question; only some of them. The rest of the questions—11 and up, are for everyone. With a significantly higher number of democrats polled, how can anyone be surprised that Hillary “wins”?
I also think some of them lied. After all, there’s little doubt Hillary will be the democrat nominee... The real drama is the Republican race. It wouldn’t surprise me that a number of them plain out lied and said they were Republican “leaners”.
As Harry Reid said (about lying about Romney’s taxes): “Well, they can call it whatever they want,” he said. “Romney didn’t win, did he?”
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