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The change in Iowa: Conservatives move to Cruz, moderates to Rubio
Washington Post ^
| May 6 at 9:44 AM
| Philip Bump
Posted on 05/06/2015 9:40:21 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
Quinnipiac University has a new Iowa poll out that offers good news for Scott Walker. The Wisconsin governor's lead among Republicans in the neighboring state has slipped slightly, but he's still about two miles ahead.
The more interesting details emerge once you compare the new poll to Quinnipiac's last survey in the state, completed in February. At the time, there weren't any actual candidates in the race. Comparing the February results to the new ones, though, reinforces something we saw elsewhere: Campaign launches boost candidates.
Any dot above the red dotted line marks a candidate who's doing better than two months ago. Dots beneath? Worse. So Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has seen a big jump, as has Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.). Jeb Bush, whom some may remember from previous seasons of "The Bushes," saw his support fall 50 percent.
The Rubio and Cruz surges, though, have different causes. Cruz saw big gains among members of the tea party, evangelical Christians and staunch conservatives, at the expense of Rick Santorum and Walker.
Rubio's jump came from somwehat-conservative voters (Quinnipiac's term) and moderate or liberal ones -- mostly at the expense of Jeb Bush and Chris Christie.
This is just Iowa, mind you, but it shows precisely the dynamic that Cruz in particular hopes to replicate nationally: a strong pitch for the far right that boosts his chances for the GOP presidential nomination. The problem for Cruz and Rubio is that you only get one campaign launch. And there are a lot more of those to come.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cruz; scottwalker; tedcruz; walker
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"We don't intend to turn the Republican Party over to the traitors in the battle just ended. We will have no more of those candidates who are pledged to the same goals as our opposition and who seek our support. Turning the Party over to the so-called moderates wouldnt make any sense at all." -- President Ronald Reagan |
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"A thing moderately good is not so good as it ought to be. Moderation in temper is always a virtue; but moderation in principle is always a vice." - Thomas Paine 1792 |
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"It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams |
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"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen." - Samuel Adams |
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To: SoConPubbie; Kale; Jarhead9297; COUNTrecount; notaliberal; DoughtyOne; MountainDad; aposiopetic; ...
Ted Cruz Ping!
If you want on/off this ping list, please let me know.
Please beware, this is a high-volume ping list!
CRUZ or LOSE!
2
posted on
05/06/2015 9:40:53 AM PDT
by
SoConPubbie
(Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
To: SoConPubbie
Will Walker and Rubio end up splitting the less conservative vote with Bush?
Is that what Cruz is aiming for?
3
posted on
05/06/2015 9:42:54 AM PDT
by
GeronL
(Clearly Cruz 2016)
To: GeronL
Will Walker and Rubio end up splitting the less conservative vote with Bush?
Is that what Cruz is aiming for?
I'm beginning to think that was his plan all along.
4
posted on
05/06/2015 9:44:25 AM PDT
by
SoConPubbie
(Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
To: SoConPubbie
To: SoConPubbie
The real danger here is watching people we think are out and forgetting the other people we thought were out.
Dole
Bush
McCain
Romney
It can happen again, and we’re seeing it play out before our eyes.
6
posted on
05/06/2015 9:44:51 AM PDT
by
DoughtyOne
(Conservatism: Now home to liars too. And we'll support them. Yea... GOPe)
To: SoConPubbie
From your link:
Walker is at 21 percent of likely GOP caucus participants,
Rand Paul and Marco Rubio of Florida with 13 percent each
Ted Cruz of Texas with 12 percent
Mike Huckabee with 11 percent.
7
posted on
05/06/2015 9:45:46 AM PDT
by
sickoflibs
(King Obama : 'The debate is over. The time for talk is over. Just follow my commands you serfs""')
To: afraidfortherepublic
8
posted on
05/06/2015 9:48:20 AM PDT
by
Thunder90
(All posts soley represent my own opinion.)
To: sickoflibs
From my link:
“Cruz saw big gains among members of the tea party, evangelical Christians and staunch conservatives, at the expense of Rick Santorum and Walker.”
9
posted on
05/06/2015 9:48:30 AM PDT
by
SoConPubbie
(Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
To: SoConPubbie; GeronL
You guys need to revisit your crystal ball.
Is it Liberal Republicans who are swarming to Walker?
Don’t think Walker Rubio.
Think Walker, Cruz, Rubio, Huckabee, Fiorina, and on and on as the list grows.
It’s people who consider themselves Conservatives that are diversifying. That’s going to give us Bush.
We know who the Left will vote for, and his family has had two presidents in it already.
10
posted on
05/06/2015 9:48:40 AM PDT
by
DoughtyOne
(Conservatism: Now home to liars too. And we'll support them. Yea... GOPe)
To: SoConPubbie
I really think that the polling outfits should pay more attention to the arguably largest voting block, independents.
11
posted on
05/06/2015 9:49:18 AM PDT
by
matthew fuller
(Just because you are paranoid, does not mean they are not out to get you. Ted Cruz)
To: DoughtyOne; GeronL
Is it Liberal Republicans who are swarming to Walker?
More moderate voters yes. And conservatives are migrating to Cruz. Remember, all he has to do is win the nomination by a plurality.
Cruz saw big gains among members of the tea party, evangelical Christians and staunch conservatives, at the expense of Rick Santorum and Walker.
12
posted on
05/06/2015 9:50:44 AM PDT
by
SoConPubbie
(Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
To: SoConPubbie
“Conservatives move to Cruz, moderates to Rubio”
“Conservatives move to Cruz, TRAITORS to Rubio”
Fixed it.
13
posted on
05/06/2015 9:54:48 AM PDT
by
stephenjohnbanker
(My Batting Average( 1,000) (GOPe is that easy to read))
To: Thunder90; onyx; Hunton Peck; Diana in Wisconsin; P from Sheb; Shady; DonkeyBonker; ...
Walker still ahead in Iowa, although loses some support to Cruz and Rubio.
FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.
To: SoConPubbie
RE:”
From my link:
Cruz saw big gains among members of the tea party, evangelical Christians and staunch conservatives, at the expense of Rick Santorum and Walker. Big gains?
With Walker at 21% and Cruz down at 12% after those ‘Big Gains’ its because Cruz was tied with Donald Trump before he announced his run.
Walkers not even a candidate yet.
15
posted on
05/06/2015 10:01:06 AM PDT
by
sickoflibs
(King Obama : 'The debate is over. The time for talk is over. Just follow my commands you serfs""')
To: sickoflibs
With Walker at 21% and Cruz down at 12% after those Big Gains its because Cruz was tied with Donald Trump before he announced his run.
So???
A big gain is a big gain.
16
posted on
05/06/2015 10:02:52 AM PDT
by
SoConPubbie
(Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
To: SoConPubbie
I want you to watch real hard what is taking place on this forum.
Many who consider themselves to be Conservatives have proven themselves willing to vote for a man that lies to them. They don’t even care if he lies to them in the single biggest claim he makes to win their votes.
No longer do things like this matter:
Read my lips...
I never had sex with this woman...
You can keep your health plan...
I have changed my immigration policies (which is a proveable lie)
This is what folks think Conservatism amounts to in 2016.
Do I agree with your assessment of Walker? Sure.
Do all Conservatives? Evidently not. At least on onward appearances they don’t.
I would submit true Conservatives, ones who actually believe what they say when they trash liars, do agree with you.
17
posted on
05/06/2015 10:03:57 AM PDT
by
DoughtyOne
(Conservatism: Now home to liars too. And we'll support them. Yea... GOPe)
To: DoughtyOne
I know D1, I know.
We just have to keep keeping on.
I believe the good guys will win out in the end on this one.
But the fight is going to be a hard one.
18
posted on
05/06/2015 10:05:16 AM PDT
by
SoConPubbie
(Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
To: SoConPubbie
RE:”
A big gain is a big gain. “ Big gain???
When he was tied with Trump at the bottom there was only one direction they could go from there.
Poll numbers cant go below zero 0%, that is the absolute floor.
Maybe its the 'Dead Cat's bounce'
19
posted on
05/06/2015 10:15:22 AM PDT
by
sickoflibs
(King Obama : 'The debate is over. The time for talk is over. Just follow my commands you serfs""')
To: sickoflibs
Those are the numbers I saw this AM. Pretty sure wife had Fox on. Cruz was in 4th place. It is very early.
20
posted on
05/06/2015 10:17:31 AM PDT
by
Lumper20
( clown in Chief has own Gov employees Gestapo)
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