Posted on 05/05/2015 8:43:08 AM PDT by MosesKnows
How many times has the Dow crossed the 18,000 mark?
It seems that the Dow goes below 18,000 and then above 18,000 once or twice a week. I was curious if this many threshold crossings were normal as a market creates a direction.
Thank you.
Personally, I've noticed this and examined the DOW history for an example of a plateau lasting for months (goes back to February - arguably to December 22) - and finding none I have deduced we've hit a ceiling and something has to change before it will go much higher.
Of course that "something has to change" could send it much lower as well... which is why I've gone to cash to wait it out.
I understand the truism of one plus one equals two, but bog down at compounded interest ...
Having said that, your question intrigues me
My guess is ... there are money people playing the market game, trying to keep it going on some kind of level ... waiting for something ... that apparently
hasn't happened yet
or
is taking so long, they don't know what to do and are playing cat and mouse with each other.
The USA is in such a state of flux and turmoil, with a hot unemployed summer to look forward to ...
imo
Life has changed as we know it ....
we just don't know it yet
like I said ... imo
Unless it is currently above 18000, a net of zero.
We're just at a point where there is neither any great optimism or pessimism in the market, you might as well ask "How many times has the Dow crossed the 15,232 mark?"
My guess is that most investors who like to compare their portfolio to an index use the S&P anyway.
About as many times as some posters have predicted the big crash will be the next day.
That would depend if the stock holder was holding, or buying and selling at peaks and valleys.
Remember, follow the crowd, buy high, sell low....
18,000 is not a mark and is not a threshold. It is no more important than 17,999 or 18,001. Some individuals have a fascination with numbers ending in zero.
Also, the number is not adjusted for inflation, so comparing it to previous years is invalid.
Market watchers like to say "we're in a trading range." Statisticians and physical sciences people refer to it as fluctuation. The truth is we are at 18 [or 17.9, which is exactly the same number] and not trending anywhere, and the "ups and downs" aren't ups and downs at all, just the kind of blips you expect when averaging data with a lot of individual contributions [like the DJIA or the S&P.]
Looks like about 14 times!
More useful than the DJIA is the S&P500, by the way. Or, SPYders * 100. In very rough terms, an SP point is worth about 7-10 DJ points. As it happens, DJIA 18K very closely = SP2100. And yes, the S&P has crossed 2100 about as many times as the DJ has crossed 18K.
We have had to take our DJ18000 party hats down from the shelf, put them back take them down, put them back so many times they are wearing out!
There is some resistance I think due to market related uncertainties, like European QE and the weaker economy in China.
But wait until the next round of corporate profits are announced... I think you’re going to see a big drop, well below 18,000.
“How many times has the Dow crossed the 18,000 mark?”
Several. Next question.
Why has the DOW crossed 18,000 when GDP is essentially negative? And how much higher can it go as median wages in the US fall while food, housing and energy prices relentlessly climb higher?
Don’t worry, it will cross 8000 soon.
Yep, I think 15,000 is about spot on correct. Don’t see it going lower.
That said... that’s still a 3,000 point drop. Bloody. On the other hand the best time to buy is when there is blood in the streets...
Essentially it is stuck at 18,000. Either the Fed has stopped financing the rise or other investments are becoming slightly more lucrative for the big banks and funds who are almost the whole market. If prices in general are rising faster then that is where the money is going that is not going into the NYSE.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.