Posted on 03/18/2015 11:23:17 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Gotta agree with Bill Kristol on this. Not good, especially when you consider that the poll was taken within the last week, with media coverage of her e-mail corruption peaking.
This is way early, all adults, etc–but GOP should worry about these numbers Poll: Hillary Clinton still tops in 2016 http://t.co/WW7JrqlLsV
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) March 18, 2015
You’ll be hearing this a lot more over the next 20 months (eeyores gonna eeyore), but here’s the inaugural version of the 2016 campaign: Dude, I’m nervous.
But none of the top candidates in this field gets within 10 points of Hillary Clinton in a series of hypothetical general election matchups.
Rand Paul comes closest, with 43% saying they’d be more likely to back him while 54% choose Clinton. The two candidates who currently top the GOP field, Bush and Walker, match up equally against Clinton, with each carrying 40% to her 55%. Huckabee gets 41% to Clinton’s 55% and Carson has 40% to Clinton’s 56%…
On the Republican side, Bush leads the pack with 16%, Walker follows at 13%, Paul nearly matches him at 12% and Huckabee holds 10% support. Huckabee’s backing has dipped significantly since February, from 16% to 10%, while the others near the top have generally held steady. In single digits, Carson holds 9%, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has 7%, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has 7%. The rest of the field lands below 5%, including 2012 candidates Rick Santorum at 1% and Rick Perry at 4%.
“But AP,” you say, “head-to-head polls this early are useless. The Republican contenders are total unknowns to swing voters.” Right, but Hillary isn’t. She’s as close as you get in American politics to 100 percent name recognition. Everyone knows her and everyone has an opinion about her, which means that early polls like this one tend to operate as a measure of her “job approval” (for lack of a better term). Essentially, low-information voters are being asked here whether they prefer Hillary Clinton, baggage and all, or a Republican to be named later as their next president. Upwards of 55 percent prefer Hillary. She’s entering the race as acceptable to a sizable majority of the public, even in the midst of a legit scandal about her attempts to conceal records from the federal government. That’s what the GOP is up against as this campaign begins. Gulp.
Here’s how she polls against the other dynasty case in the race, the only Republican with a fairly strong “brand.” Which number jumps out?
Actually, two numbers jump out at me. One is her lead among non-whites, a group with whom Jeb’s supposed to be a bit more competitive than the average Republican due to his support for amnesty and Latino family ties. At 14/85, he actually does a few points worse than Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul do. But the big number, of course, is the gender split. Hillary leads Jeb by seven points among men but by 21 points(!) among women. And believe it or not, that’s the closest any Republican gets to her among that group. Women prefer her to Rubio by 22 points, to Christie and Mike Huckabee by 24 points, to Scott Walker by 27 points, and to Rand Paul by 28 points. (Although Paul is the Republican who’s most competitive with Hillary overall, his outreach to young adults and minorities hasn’t paid off with numbers appreciably greater within those groups than some of his rivals’.) Male voters trend Republican so they’ll likely end up tilting GOP as the race sharpens, but “tilting” won’t be good enough given Hillary’s huge advantage among women. The Republican nominee will have to win men in a landslide and/or somehow knock 10 points or so off of Hillary’s female base. How do you do that?
There may be only one hope, my friends. To stop this freight train, we need a hero to derail it before it gets going. And luckily, for us and for America, that hero is out there.
That's what they said about Reagan.
“1) CNN
2) I don’t believe it
3) GOTO 1”
Doesn’t get more basic than that.
She knowingly withheld government documents. She’s a felon and legally ineligible to hold elected office. according to Megyn Kelly anyways.
Heisenberg uncertainty principle: people have no opinion on anything, and in fact have positive and negative opinions for all candidates at the same time... until they are asked the question in certain ways. Then they make their opinion when stuck.
This is a PR ploy of course.
The issue is politicians are the ones never really saying for whom they vote.
I try to be as realistic as possible in my posts.
Personally I favor Cruz as president by 2:1 over any other candidate.
But 40 years of engineering career behind me has taught me to be brutally realistic in my conclusions.
And sadly, Cruz is perceived as more polarizing than many other GOP contenders. Perception is everything in politics.
“He’s too polarizing.”
How?
The current “confidence” of the American public is something like the numbers that follow:
USSC - 23% confidence
Executive Branch - 11% confidence
Legislative Branch - 5% confidence
Ted Cruz has stood FOR the american citizenry and against the NSA, against the IRS and against Obamacare. As a result he was attacked by the liberal media and the GOP congressional leadership.
Compare who attacks him with who has lost the electorate, and you are looking at a true unifier of the American people. However, if you listen to the GOP-e and the MSM, then yes, he is certainly “polarizing” to their desire for tyranny.
This is a classic push poll.
This is 50 smaller elections and only nine of those matter. Who polls better in Wisconsin? NC? Colorado? NM? Florida? Iowa?Virginia? Ohio? Nevada? Then say it doesn’t look good. And, by the way, she doesn’t speak Spanish and Obama is not on the ballot. Can she carry the black vote without him on the ticket? And the validity of polls two years out? See Israel-—one day post-election!
“And sadly, Cruz is perceived as more polarizing than many other GOP contenders. Perception is everything in politics.”
I agree with you.
Cruz plays for his base but there isn’t enough of his base to carry him to the end.
Outside of his base he doesn’t do well.
He doesn’t have much potential to grow his base.
I realize the rallying cry here at FR is that a real conservative will win but really the facts don’t support that.
There were more conservative options in 2008 and 2012.
The voters didn’t go for them though.
CNN is in the dwindling side of history, unable to report even what they see, and using these “push polls” to try to create buzz (not news).
Agendas are expensive beasts to feed, high-maintenance in every way.
Trust not the poll takers! They are trying to Push poll people into accepting Jeb Bush—so Hillary can defeat him.
You're on target by attributing her popularity to the "lady parts" but we shouldn't discount another not so obvious factor. And that is, that majority of people of all colors and national origin HATE the government and the Clinton bag lady has just given the GOVERNMENT the finger with her private email server and the non-signing of her exit forms stating she hasn't kept any government documents. In the eyes of the multitudes she is a hero and heroes get elected!!!
The majority of amerikans are corrupt and immoral. It is no surprise they would vote for her. she is a kindred spirit. That is how Obama got elected and this is why the nation will collapse soon. When you cross the Rubicon of morality, there is no turning back. America is gone. Get use to it.
CNN is the beast’s own network . . . why is anyone paying any attention to this?
“The current “confidence” of the American public is something like the numbers that follow:USSC - 23% confidence
Executive Branch - 11% confidence
Legislative Branch - 5% confidence
Ted Cruz has stood FOR the american citizenry and against the NSA, against the IRS and against Obamacare. As a result he was attacked by the liberal media and the GOP congressional leadership.
Compare who attacks him with who has lost the electorate, and you are looking at a true unifier of the American people. However, if you listen to the GOP-e and the MSM, then yes, he is certainly “polarizing” to their desire for tyranny.”
People not having confidence in the government has nothing to do with whether or not Cruz is polarizing.
If he were the uniter you claim he is then he would already be making a bigger impact.
He plays to his base but there isn’t enough of his base to get him there.
Kind of like Fred Thompson in 08.
Has America really fallen this far that a criminal is the leading contender for the Presidential election?
Well yes it has and it is going to get much wprse before it gets better.
Libs don’t CARE about Hillary breaking the law.
She’s a LIB. They’ll vote her in no matter what.
This is a poll of all ADULTS, that adds about 5-7% to the Dem margin...
This country is so skrewd.
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