Posted on 12/30/2014 6:36:26 AM PST by rellimpank
When crimes rates drop for a year or two, nobody can really say why. It could be freakish good luck.
When crime rates drop steadily for more than 20 years, as they have in Chicago and across the country, you might suspect the underlying forces driving the trend would become clear. But, in fact, the experts continue to scratch their heads.
About all they can say for sure is that it’s complicated. No single factor, such as sending more people to prison, explains why crime rates have plummeted across the country. And, so it follows, we should be wary of any pandering politician who pushes a single tempting solution — such as sending more people to prison — to drive crime rates down further. Better to look at the big picture.
(Excerpt) Read more at chicago.suntimes.com ...
Course not.
Wait...crime rates DROPPED in Chicago???
If the rate is 100%, there’s no way but down.
Long term per capita crime rates everywhere are much lower today than they were 100 years ago.
Baby Boomers have all gotten old. Their numbers dwindle, and so does their crime rate...................
The key word is ‘rate’, as in per capita. The largest segment of society, the Boomer generation, has gotten too old to commit crimes on a level that keeps up with the population. Sure, we hear of more crimes now than twenty years ago, but only because we have more news outlets than we had before, and the old journalism adage still holds: If it bleeds, it leads. TV and print media still have to sell time or ad space, so what better way than to hype the horrible? ..................
The Truth About Chicago’s Crime Rates
http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/May-2014/Chicago-crime-rates/
Toxicology tests showed she had heroin and alcohol in her system, but not enough to kill her. All signs pointed to foul play. According to the young woman’s mother, who had filed a missing-person report, the police had no doubt. “When this detective came to my house, he said, ‘We found your daughter. . . . Your daughter has been murdered,’” Alice Groves recalls. “He told me they’re going to get the one that did it.”
On October 28, a pathologist ruled the death of Tiara Groves a homicide by “unspecified means.” This rare ruling means yes, somebody had killed Groves, but the pathologist couldn’t pinpoint the exact cause of death.
Given the finding of homicide—and the corroborating evidence at the crime scene—the Chicago Police Department should have counted Groves’s death as a murder. And it did. Until December 18. On that day, the police report indicates, a lieutenant overseeing the Groves case reclassified the homicide investigation as a noncriminal death investigation. In his writeup, he cited the medical examiner’s “inability to determine a cause of death.”
“When crimes rates drop for a year or two, nobody can really say why.”
Having fought 6 parole hearings, to keep the sociopath who beat my 16 yr old, with the mental capacity of a 12 year old to death with a 2 ft section of fence post in cold blood, Murder 1, plead down to Murder 2 lighter sentence. I can tell you what the head of the TN parole board told me.
THEY can control crime by WHO they let out of prison!
Look real hard at the numbers. The other issue is there are few Juvy state prisons. TN has 1. 3 women’s, more for men.
Our local Penal Farm which is a 11 month 29 day facility, they serve 30%. Recidivism is 87%. ALL MALE.
“When the law no longer protects you from the corrupt,
but protects the corrupt from you -you know your nation is doomed.” -Ayn Rand
Recidivism
http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=17
These offenders had accumulated 4.1 million arrest charges before their most recent imprisonment and another 744,000 charges within 3 years of release.
Older study, but invaluable info. Probation and Parole: https://www.ncjrs.gov/txtfiles/ppvsp91.txt
Keep in mind the sampling was just 45%, they originally committed 25,900 crimes, when placed on early release under ‘community’ supervision for parole and probation they then committed another 74,400 new crimes. That folks adds up to 100,300 crimes, and many times more than in victims. As there are multiple people affected when a child is raped or a person murdered.
This is an older study as there are no newer ones, this gives you a big idea of just how many additional crimes early release of criminals to parole and probation cause.
BAIL should also be included in these Stats, but isn’t.
Honest to God, this is what I heard sitting in court. Perp is out on BAIL. ‘Your, Honor my client is NOT in your Court Room today, because he is in another Judge’s Court Room down the hall.” Bail was NOT revoked. Come back in 30 days.
1 Perp tied up two full courts. And only the Court knows how many other ones he was tying up as he was a multiple repeat offender out on BAIL.
When Memphis wants to make it look like crime rates are down, they annex a area that has very little crime.
Then you have the practice of Hierarchical Counting crime. If a woman is kidnapped, robbed, raped, and murdered, only the Murder shows up on the Stats. Rest flushed down the toilet.
The way things are classified makes a difference as well.
The Detroit crime rates are way down for the second year in a row but justified homicide is simply counted as a homicide with no distinction made between defense and murder. However even without the distinction being made the homicide rate is still down some 11% from last year. Where the real decline is seen is in property crimes like burglary and carjacking. Stealing a car or breaking into a building has become a much riskier proposition when the public is free to shoot.
The main drivers of the falling crime rate in Detroit are the fact that its an open carry / stand your ground city, they have a pro 2nd amendment police chief (GOP appointed), and an unemployment rate creeping slowly downward. (again due to GOP policies)
If they keep doing that, they will eventually have to annex Mississippi...............
If they keep doing that, they will eventually have to annex Mississippi...............
Technology has made it easier to catch criminals. With video cameras everywhere, with DNA testing, there are simply fewer ways to get away with really bad crimes.
Studies have shown that criminals respond to certainty of punishment, not severity of punishment. If you are certain to be caught, many of the more rational criminals won’t do the crime. Instead of robbing gas stations with a gun, they go into credit card fraud or phony tax returns, where you are much less likely to be caught....because the police give violent crime a priority.
I don’t know if ‘Hardcore Pawn’ TV show is representative of Detroit, but if it is, I can’t imagine that the rate has changed..................
Reality TV always reflects reality. /s
Actually of you removed all the black males between the ages of 13 and 30 the crime rate in Chicago would drop by 70% at least.
Murder rate 1900-1905 was just over 1/100,000. It then began a steady rise, peaking at 9.7 in 1933. Then it declined and stayed between 4 and 5 into the mid-60s.
Mississippi has one of the highest murder rates among the states - #3 in 2013 => http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/mscrimn.htm
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