Breaking the Blue Barrier: The Democrats still have a big advantage in the electoral college.

National Review ^ | 11/15/2014 | Myra Adams

[SeekAndFind]

After the GOP’s 2014 midterm election triumph, Republicans are still celebrating that the good guys (and girls) won and our nation has been saved. Finally, the American people wised up and threw the bums out.

Six years after the election of Barack Obama, the midterm tsunami over the bluest of blue states filled Republicans with “hope and change,” mixed with heaps of vindication. And after winning control of Capitol Hill, Republicans hope that bold actions and good governance will follow over the next two years and will motivate a majority of 2016 voters to send a Republican candidate to the White House.

Or so goes the thinking . . .

Yes, that wave might be sustained through 2016, but it may not be strong enough to break though a blue barrier standing between the GOP and a White House victory. That blue barrier is more commonly known as the Electoral College, which rises to a winner’s height of 270 electoral votes and has been fortified by over two decades of presidential-election history and solid math.

Here a simple equation that illustrates the GOP’s Electoral College obstacle: 1992 + 1988 + Florida = 270 Democratic White House.

The first number, 1992, represents ten states with a total of 152 electoral votes. These states have been won by every Democratic presidential nominee since the 1992 presidential election, when Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton defeated President George H. W. Bush.

Here are the ten states and their 152 electoral votes in order of value:

California (55)

Pennsylvania (20)

Illinois (20)

Michigan (16)

New Jersey (14)

Maryland (10)

Connecticut (7)

Maine (4)

Vermont (3)

Delaware (3)

The second number, 1988, represents nine states with a total of 90 electoral votes. These nine have been won by every Democratic presidential nominee since 1988, when Vice President George H. W. Bush defeated Massachusetts Governor Michael S. Dukakis. Here are the nine states with their 90 electoral votes:

New York (29)

Washington (12)

Massachusetts (11)

Minnesota (10)

Wisconsin (10)

Oregon (7)

Hawaii (4)

Rhode Island (4)

Washington, D.C. (3)

Now do the math: 152 votes since 1992 plus 90 votes since 1988 equals 242 electoral votes. The number 242 means only 28 more votes are needed to reach 270 and victory. Those 242 electoral votes could be considered the historic base from which a Democratic presidential candidate begins. (Notes: Minnesota, with ten electoral votes, has been won by every Democratic nominee since 1984. Washington, D.C., while technically not a state, has three electoral votes that have been won by every Democrat nominee since 1964.)

The 1992 and 1988 numbers are likely to stand in 2016 as they have for the last 24 to 28 years. That is unless a cataclysmic event or series of events dramatically changes voting behavior in states where the Democratic nominee for president has triumphed since 1988 or 1992. And as we know, in politics, anything is possible.

The third element in the equation is Florida, whose 29 electoral votes, added to the 242 total, would bring the Democratic nominee to 271 electoral votes, just over the 270 needed for White House victory.

The Sunshine State gives the GOP reasons to be concerned amid the joyful news of the midterm-election results. Incumbent Republican governor Rick Scott won reelection by only a 1.1 percent margin of victory on an Election Day that was otherwise a Republican blowout. That does not bode well for Florida’s return to the red column in 2016.

Barack Obama won Florida in both 2008 and 2012. Before that, President George W. Bush won it in 2004 and was reelected. But, if you are unfamiliar with or need a refresher about the historic role that Florida played in the 2000 presidential election, amuse yourself by googling “Florida 2000 election” and “hanging chads.”

Florida is the ultimate battleground state. Republicans must win it or they lose the White House, whereas Democrats can lose Florida and still piece together an electoral victory.

Now it’s possible that last week’s midterm-election victories were an inflection point, and that this antiquated equation no longer reflects the political landscape.

But before we return to the midterm celebration, a word of caution:

Generally, Republicans like to downplay that midterm-election voters are vastly different than presidential election voters — older, whiter, and Republican-leaning. Traditional Democratic voters tend to be younger, single, female, and other than white. Ethnic, demographic, and cultural shifts in the general population are slanting the Electoral College toward the Democrats.

Take, for example, the 2012 presidential election. Here Mitt Romney won only 206 electoral votes, compared to President Obama’s 332. Even if Romney had won the battleground states of Virginia (13), Ohio (18), and Florida (29), he would have earned only 266 electoral votes and Obama still would have won reelection, with 272.

Unfortunately for Republicans in 2016, the Electoral College is the big, bad, blue barrier that could still keep the GOP nominee from running across the White House lawn and entering the building. That is, unless someone extraordinary within the GOP can rise up and tear down the blue wall. Names, anyone?

— Myra Adams is a media producer and political writer. She was on the 2004 Bush campaign’s creative team and the 2008 McCain campaign’s ad council. Her writing credits include PJ Media, the Daily Beast, RedState, and the Daily Caller.

[Sooth2222]

The Sunshine State gives the GOP reasons to be concerned amid the joyful news of the midterm-election results. Incumbent Republican governor Rick Scott won reelection by only a 1.1 percent margin of victory on an Election Day that was otherwise a Republican blowout. That does not bode well for Florida’s return to the red column in 2016.

Was Scott opposed by a Democrat? I mean, a real Democrat. (I thought Crist was more of a chameleon -- or at least; he's lost races running as a Democrat, as an Independent and as a Republican.)

Hillary can't have big favorables -- or why would her minions be trying to launch a third party conservative candidate for 2016?

[goldstategop]

The GOP establishment wants Mittens or Jeb.

They don’t want to offend all the moderates and independents out there.

We’re screwed.

[Sooth2222]

Two things that the Democrats are particularly vulnerable about are Obamacare and immigration. Another two that they could be very vulnerable about are gov't corruption and institutional racism.

[DoodleDawg]

How many of these “guaranteed Democrat” states now have a Republican governor or a Republican senator who won a statewide election?

Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, and Maine all had Republican governors and a Republican senator in 2012.

[C19fan]

But but...Myra Adams during the entire 2012 POTUS campaign said Romney could break the Blue Barrier if he was nominated since he was governor of MA, popular in NH, born in MI where his father was a popular auto executive and governor of MI. Romney went 1 for 4 in his so called “home states” winning only Utah where a cardboard cut out labeled “GOP Candidate” would of won. I am sure Myra will have plenty of articles about why the next GOPe candidate she pushes, for the moment she is still along with her BFF Hugh Hewitt on the Romney band wagon, will be so successful in winning some Blue States. Here is a question for Myra. If Romney was so unsuccessful in breaching the Blue Barrier why do you still support him for 2016?

[kearnyirish2]

“This blue red switch is annoying to me.”

I’m sure it was to remove the association of communism with the democrats; we should just put them back. I’ve use Red (capital “R”) to describe Democrat bastions.

[kearnyirish2]

Even without amnesty, demographics/birthrate don’t favor traditional American voters. One problem with our two-party system is that each party simply aims for just enough votes to win, and the losers (who are as different as night & day) have no voice at all. The amnesty push is a great example of this; the damage done to so many Americans already (with the de facto amnesty that has been in place for years) is a prime example. Since the under-the-radar communist revolution of 2008, working Americans/taxpayers have had no voice or visibility at all.

[Art in Idaho]

All the Republicans have to do is spread those voting numbers for white voters, who are still the VAST MAJORITY of voters in the rest of the country (outside of California).

Since we are now the 'white folks' to all of the dem sub groups, maybe the majority white population is getting the message we better coalesce and become a voting block before we lose our majority. The national white population currently is 62.8%. If there's a big 'get out the white vote' message, we'll win. What, you say, we're not supposed to talk about this. Why not? We're people too, and we Vote!

That message will win in 2016. . . with Cruz/Palin.

[BobL]

You’re getting it. Thanks to Planned Parenthood, the percentage of blacks has not changed significantly in the past 40 years (they’ve managed to kill off all the growth).

Hispanics are a VERY INTERESTING bunch. They will vote 78/22 Democrat in California, but only 55/45 in Texas. That is the HUGE PROBLEM that Democrats have here (in Texas), Hispanics have no great love for them. So Hispanics can DOUBLE their percentage of voters and Texas becomes 57/43 Republican, as opposed to 60/40 Republican. Good luck for the Dems with those numbers.

There are still a LOT of white voters, and the Dems are now so far left that whites are starting to block vote. If that continues, that will end it for the Democrat Party, and THANK GOD.

[Art in Idaho]

There are still a LOT of white voters, and the Dems are now so far left that whites are starting to block vote.

I pray that is what partially happened this last election. The dems are so far left/socialist/communist - at least their core and their leaders - that people really are starting to 'get it' and see their vote as helping to save the country. It's not just their guy/gal anymore, it's, "My God, I need to Vote to save The Republic!" I heard such musings before the election. .

[BobL]

There is hope. They key, now, is to SEPARATE whites from their union leaders. That is the ONLY WAY they still win some statewide elections in the Midwest. There is NOTHING else that can explain it. There simply is not enough otherwise-liberal whites for Democrats to keep winning.

It is a slow process, but the Dems have made it REALLY EASY for us. We just need to move out on the hand we’ve been dealt.

[Art in Idaho]

There is hope. They key, now, is to SEPARATE whites from their union leaders.

Hopefully, the union bosses won't have as much say with the rank and file as time goes on. Country will trump the local union boss. . I hope.

[BobL]

That is where the fight is now. We win that fight, and the Dems will find themselves TOTALLY out of voters.

Of course if we pass Amnesty, then we lose (but I, thankfully, don’t think that has a prayer now).

[Art in Idaho]

It is a slow process, but the Dems have made it REALLY EASY for us. We just need to move out on the hand we’ve been dealt.

The dems have been the ones that have been pushing. . it's race this, ethnic that, rainbow this, subgroup that. . They have about every 'group' tied up. . so they think. . They can't run on American issues so they focus on the class warfare, community organizing, 'us against them' meme. . People are starting to see it for what it is and are rejecting it. The dems essentially have no core American beliefs. Their beliefs are antithetical to core American beliefs. . It's as simple as that. .

[ExCTCitizen]

If the Republicans nominate a RINO like JEB, they’ll lose... if they nominate Ted Cruz/________ they will win.