Posted on 11/15/2014 10:37:37 AM PST by SeekAndFind
After the GOP’s 2014 midterm election triumph, Republicans are still celebrating that the good guys (and girls) won and our nation has been saved. Finally, the American people wised up and threw the bums out.
Six years after the election of Barack Obama, the midterm tsunami over the bluest of blue states filled Republicans with “hope and change,” mixed with heaps of vindication. And after winning control of Capitol Hill, Republicans hope that bold actions and good governance will follow over the next two years and will motivate a majority of 2016 voters to send a Republican candidate to the White House.
Or so goes the thinking . . .
Yes, that wave might be sustained through 2016, but it may not be strong enough to break though a blue barrier standing between the GOP and a White House victory. That blue barrier is more commonly known as the Electoral College, which rises to a winner’s height of 270 electoral votes and has been fortified by over two decades of presidential-election history and solid math.
Here a simple equation that illustrates the GOP’s Electoral College obstacle: 1992 + 1988 + Florida = 270 Democratic White House.
The first number, 1992, represents ten states with a total of 152 electoral votes. These states have been won by every Democratic presidential nominee since the 1992 presidential election, when Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton defeated President George H. W. Bush.
Here are the ten states and their 152 electoral votes in order of value:
California (55)
Pennsylvania (20)
Illinois (20)
Michigan (16)
New Jersey (14)
Maryland (10)
Connecticut (7)
Maine (4)
Vermont (3)
Delaware (3)
The second number, 1988, represents nine states with a total of 90 electoral votes. These nine have been won by every Democratic presidential nominee since 1988, when Vice President George H. W. Bush defeated Massachusetts Governor Michael S. Dukakis. Here are the nine states with their 90 electoral votes:
New York (29)
Washington (12)
Massachusetts (11)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
Oregon (7)
Hawaii (4)
Rhode Island (4)
Washington, D.C. (3)
Now do the math: 152 votes since 1992 plus 90 votes since 1988 equals 242 electoral votes. The number 242 means only 28 more votes are needed to reach 270 and victory. Those 242 electoral votes could be considered the historic base from which a Democratic presidential candidate begins. (Notes: Minnesota, with ten electoral votes, has been won by every Democratic nominee since 1984. Washington, D.C., while technically not a state, has three electoral votes that have been won by every Democrat nominee since 1964.)
The 1992 and 1988 numbers are likely to stand in 2016 as they have for the last 24 to 28 years. That is unless a cataclysmic event or series of events dramatically changes voting behavior in states where the Democratic nominee for president has triumphed since 1988 or 1992. And as we know, in politics, anything is possible.
The third element in the equation is Florida, whose 29 electoral votes, added to the 242 total, would bring the Democratic nominee to 271 electoral votes, just over the 270 needed for White House victory.
The Sunshine State gives the GOP reasons to be concerned amid the joyful news of the midterm-election results. Incumbent Republican governor Rick Scott won reelection by only a 1.1 percent margin of victory on an Election Day that was otherwise a Republican blowout. That does not bode well for Florida’s return to the red column in 2016.
Barack Obama won Florida in both 2008 and 2012. Before that, President George W. Bush won it in 2004 and was reelected. But, if you are unfamiliar with or need a refresher about the historic role that Florida played in the 2000 presidential election, amuse yourself by googling “Florida 2000 election” and “hanging chads.”
Florida is the ultimate battleground state. Republicans must win it or they lose the White House, whereas Democrats can lose Florida and still piece together an electoral victory.
Now it’s possible that last week’s midterm-election victories were an inflection point, and that this antiquated equation no longer reflects the political landscape.
But before we return to the midterm celebration, a word of caution:
Generally, Republicans like to downplay that midterm-election voters are vastly different than presidential election voters — older, whiter, and Republican-leaning. Traditional Democratic voters tend to be younger, single, female, and other than white. Ethnic, demographic, and cultural shifts in the general population are slanting the Electoral College toward the Democrats.
Take, for example, the 2012 presidential election. Here Mitt Romney won only 206 electoral votes, compared to President Obama’s 332. Even if Romney had won the battleground states of Virginia (13), Ohio (18), and Florida (29), he would have earned only 266 electoral votes and Obama still would have won reelection, with 272.
Unfortunately for Republicans in 2016, the Electoral College is the big, bad, blue barrier that could still keep the GOP nominee from running across the White House lawn and entering the building. That is, unless someone extraordinary within the GOP can rise up and tear down the blue wall. Names, anyone?
— Myra Adams is a media producer and political writer. She was on the 2004 Bush campaign’s creative team and the 2008 McCain campaign’s ad council. Her writing credits include PJ Media, the Daily Beast, RedState, and the Daily Caller.
How many of these “guaranteed Democrat” states now have a Republican governor or a Republican senator who won a statewide election?
Is Myra Gruberizing?
The Electoral College is okay when the Democrats are in power but when they’re loosing people like Hillary want to just go by popular vote and eliminate the EC.
If Republicans can nominate someone that does not INSULT THE BASE, then a lot more states come into play.
In Texas, Republicans win the WHITE VOTE 75/25. In Louisiana, it is 80/20. Both states have very large minority populations, but both states are SOLID RED.
All the Republicans have to do is spread those voting numbers for white voters, who are still the VAST MAJORITY of voters in the rest of the country (outside of California).
The path to victory is VERY EASY, perhaps Republicans should try that, sometime, rather than listen to their ‘consultants’ (most of them gay, by the way) and nominate a MODERATE who practically forces the base to stay at home.
They’ll elect the Potus and we’ll elect the Congress. Then what?
“The Electoral College is okay when the Democrats are in power but when they’re loosing people like Hillary want to just go by popular vote and eliminate the EC.”
Beware of that. The idea is to BALLOT-STUFF the blue states (New York and California), so that Republican majorities in other states (i.e., states with Voter ID) cannot overcome them.
Democrats will carry those areas that have majority of blacks and Mexicans. The rest of the advantage is vote fixing, fraud, and they are damn good at it.
Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico are key states for the GOP to target in 2016.
It does seem that there are more ways for Hillary or another Democrat to get to 270 electoral votes than a Republican.
Just at first glance, it appears that the northeast and Pacific coast states pick the Democrat presidents.
She’s right about the EC math.
With the right candidate, a Democrat has a guaranteed lock on NY, PA, MI, IL and CA.
You have vote-rich liberal megacities that overwhelm the sparsely populated conservative interior in those states.
GOP candidates never go there because they’re unwinnable. And so the path to the White House is practically easier for a Democratic presidential candidate than for a Republican one.
Not saying a Republican can’t win - but without winning PA, cashing in a ticket to the White House is nearly impossible and PA hasn’t voted GOP since 1992.
(Personally I believe the inflection point was in 2000, when Bush barely won.)
yeah, Dan Rather started the red/blue switch in the primary season 1988 - as he called it “George Bush’s Big Red Machine” because in the GOP primary, Bush states were called red states.
All down hill from there....but now it is what it is.
Once they add five million or so Illegals they will never be beaten at the POTUS level. So leaves the Congress and state houses...that’s probably not what the founders envisioned but once you move into lawlessness like Obama has an the GOP does not stem the tide we are screwed
Freegards
LEX
Wisconsin is on the 1988 list.
Scott Walker has won three elections there in the past four years.
“All our advantages disappear before 2014 is over, when Obama packs the electorate with illegal alien Democrat voters. At that point, it’s game over for America.”
Don’t give up so soon. We won 60/40 in Texas, EVERY DAMN REPUBLICAN. The Dems PROMISED us a run for our money, and they were TROUNCED (Voter ID didn’t hurt either).
Nothing is concluded yet with these Illegals. It will take an ACT OF CONGRESS to actually legalize them. All Obama can do is tell Holder to look the other way as they break the law. They will not be (legally) voting in 2016 and they will not be voting at all in Texas in 2016, assuming Voter ID holds.
Then we might, just might, get a decent president, such as Cruz, who might just use Obama’s database to find these people and politely (or not so politely) ask them to return home.
There is still time, providing Congress does not blow it, and so far, that seems to be the case, now that they’re not listening to their ‘advisers’ (most of them gay, by the way) anymore.
Mitt Romney came from a Blue State. Massachusetts rejected him.
As for Scott Walker, there is no guarantee he’ll still be popular in WI in 2016. Two years is an eternity in politics.
The “Blue Barrier” only exists when the GOP runs candidates like Dole, McCain or Romney. It vanishes even when the GOP candidate is merely a W. And it becomes a red wall when they run a Reagan.
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