Posted on 11/04/2014 12:28:55 PM PST by Red Steel
A Colorado reader digests the latest early voting numbers:
Dems had better get a huge turnout advantage on election day. If the election were based on the votes through yesterday afternoon, they would need to carry Independents by 65-35 to make up the difference (now, I realize that some GOP voters will go Dem, and Dem voters will go GOP, so this might not be completely accurate, but it’s close).
To put this in perspective, according to the SoS numbers as of the end of October, here is what voter registration looks like:
Total: 2,986,362
GOP 966,082 (32.3%)
Dem: 913,246 (30.5%)
So, 49 percent of registered voters have already voted. When pundits project 2.1M voters in Colorado, that would mean 70.3 percent turnout. That seems awfully high in a non-presidential year. So, yesterday I said that perhaps 2/3 have already voted, but it may be higher than that.
Interjection from Jim: This is the first year Colorado has used vote by mail and so we should expect turnout to be significantly higher than past cycles. Oregon enjoyed turnout of 70 percent (2006) to 86 percent (2004) in its elections.
GOP turnout percentage is +8.1 points, while Dem turnout is +1.6 points.
GOP has turned out 61.1% of its registered voters, Dems have turned out 51.5%, while Others is much lower, at 36.4%. So, could we be looking at an election where (i) both the GOP and Dems do pretty well with turnout of their respective voters, (ii) GOP does better by 5-10 points (in % of RVs turned out) because the GOP is more motivated (we’ve seen numbers in this range in polling of voter enthusiasm), and (iii) the Independents don’t turn out at nearly the same rate, and their turnout is much more in line with what one would expect for a mid-term election, or at a time when neither party is terribly well liked?
One figure working for the Republicans in Colorado: “Mail ballots have to arrive by 7:00 on election night. It doesn’t matter when they’re post-marked.” In some other states, such as Iowa, ballots will be accepted in the days after the election if they were postmarked one day before the election.
Colorado also permits residents to register to vote today and cast legal ballots.
Cue the usual crew to opine that this is just a ruse and voter fraud is going to steal it.
Only 51% for democrats!
That's pretty low for them.
Sometimes democrats in other states turn out 110%, 120% or more.
[ Cue the usual crew to opine that this is just a ruse and voter fraud is going to steal it. ]
2014 is going to make the fraud in 2012 look like nuns playing peaknuckle in the park on a sunny summer day...
Wouldn’t this tend to undermine polling results that intentionally “oversample” Democrats by anywhere from four to ten percent?
[ Only 51% for democrats!
That’s pretty low for them.
Sometimes democrats in other states turn out 110%, 120% or more. ]
Ain’t that the truth!
51% of dems is downright anemic...
Maybe that is only the dead voters thaty are showing up this year...
many Democrats will vote and not turn out, they won’t even know they voted.
50% is a huge turnout for a midterm, anyway!
Sometimes democrats in other states turn out 110%, 120% or more.
************
LOL! How true. Good post.
Well, just another way the democrat party caters to the lazy.
lol
If this is the case, Annette Teijeiro may win a stunning upset in Nevada.
This time around Dem voters may not necessarily vote Dem. Fundamental transformation affects people of all races, creeds, and color.
That’s funny right there!
This time around Dem voters may not necessarily vote Dem. Fundamental transformation affects people of all races, creeds, and color.
I agree. Some Ds will vote R and just keep it to themselves.
I also expect a flood of voters to storm the polls today, claiming they never received their ballot forms, demanding to be allowed to vote NOW. You're not supposed to notice they all got off the same bus, btw. If allowed to vote, there'll be a Democrat surge - if not allowed, it's the basis for claims of vote fraud and legal action to void the election results.
I also expect a flood of voters to storm the polls today, claiming they never received their ballot forms, demanding to be allowed to vote NOW. You're not supposed to notice they all got off the same bus, btw. If allowed to vote, there'll be a Democrat surge - if not allowed, it's the basis for claims of vote fraud and legal action to void the election results.
Yes, but how many ballots does each Demonicrat get to cast compared to each Republican.
Yeah, only the Dems will be accusing the Republicans.................
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
