Posted on 10/30/2014 10:49:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The public polling right now is just sort of weird. The president's job approval nationally is 42 percent. This should be consistent with a terrible midterm election for Democrats. And, indeed, we have polling consistent with that: Jeanne Shaheen’s tight race in New Hampshire; Cory Gardner’s and Joni Ernst’s substantial leads in Colorado and Iowa; generic ballot polling showing Republicans up by eight and six points in some polls (leads similar to what those pollsters found in 2010); anecdotes of Democrats sending funds to Lois Capps’ otherwise-safe California district.
Yet there is what we might consider a second batch of polling that is deeply inconsistent with the notion of a wave: Generic balloting showing a tie or even a Democratic lead; competitive governors’ races; small (though firm) leads for Tom Cotton in Arkansas; competitive races in Georgia and Kansas; polling showing close House races in places like Arkansas and Michigan that weren’t on anyone’s radar even a month ago.
Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that many of these races see an unusually high number of undecided voters (or claiming they will vote third party). Using the RCP polling averages: about 14 percent of the electorate is undecided/voting third party in North Carolina (9 percent if you count Libertarian Sean Haugh as a major party candidate) and Virginia; 13 percent is undecided/voting third party in Michigan; 12 percent in Kansas and Kentucky; 11 percent in Arkansas; 9 percent in Alaska, Colorado and Iowa. The only competitive state that is really where we would expect it to be at this point in the cycle is New Hampshire.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I have a feeling 2010 will be known as the nation’s last semi-legitimate election cycle.
“Uncertain voters” appears to be the precursor story to every major national election. It is now a meme. If someone is still uncertain as to what is happening to this county, they should remain uncertain and not vote.
I think you gotta go way back before that for a legitimate (s)election cycle. And, how anyone can be undecided at this point is beyond me. Only expecting 50-55% turnout in my area. I’m thinking lower myself.
Scenario 1 - your politician will win
Scenario 2 - your politician will lose
Agreed, however...
Of two major parties, one party is more likely to promote that paradigm; the other more likely to take advantage of it by identifying those uncertain, convince them that they are completely certain (for that party) based on a few words, an emotion, an emblem, a word (ie, Forward), etc.
It is ALL about turnout, folks...
Do we show up? And how many multiple times do the Democrat Plantation Slaves Vote.
I've learned to expect the unexpected.
I'll just hide & watch, wait for Wed. morning.
We should all turnout and do our part.
But calibration errors and voter fraud will be the order of the day.
Thanks to those who voted BHO and his law hating minions.
Pubbies will get the senate back, but not a super majority. The media will launch an immediate two year campaign complaining about pubbies controlling congress, but doing nothing.
Not to decide...is to decide!
The GOPe could pick up 10 Senate seats, break even, lose two, or anywhere in between those scenarios. Voters are angry but does that equate into a Republican wave? Old Snakehead James Carville once said all politics are local. We will see if Obama's unpopularity translates into GOPe votes. Unfortunately Not Obama does not appear on the ballot.
“Do we show up? And how many multiple times do the Democrat Plantation Slaves Vote.”
We stay home, they win. They are counting on it.
Obola’s approval rating means nothing. If it did, he never would have been reelected.
The only issue is how much the GOP will win, not if they win.
6th year election's in a two term President are always bad for the administration in power.
This is going to be an very bad one for the Democrats and they know it.
Your history is correct and I pray that you are right in your predictions, Yet I do not have a good feeling about next week. I admire your optimism!
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