Two Scenarios for Tuesday [Uncertainty due to high number of undecided voters]

The public polling right now is just sort of weird. The president's job approval nationally is 42 percent. This should be consistent with a terrible midterm election for Democrats. And, indeed, we have polling consistent with that: Jeanne Shaheen’s tight race in New Hampshire; Cory Gardner’s and Joni Ernst’s substantial leads in Colorado and Iowa; generic ballot polling showing Republicans up by eight and six points in some polls (leads similar to what those pollsters found in 2010); anecdotes of Democrats sending funds to Lois Capps’ otherwise-safe California district.

Yet there is what we might consider a second batch of polling that is deeply inconsistent with the notion of a wave: Generic balloting showing a tie or even a Democratic lead; competitive governors’ races; small (though firm) leads for Tom Cotton in Arkansas; competitive races in Georgia and Kansas; polling showing close House races in places like Arkansas and Michigan that weren’t on anyone’s radar even a month ago.

Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that many of these races see an unusually high number of undecided voters (or claiming they will vote third party). Using the RCP polling averages: about 14 percent of the electorate is undecided/voting third party in North Carolina (9 percent if you count Libertarian Sean Haugh as a major party candidate) and Virginia; 13 percent is undecided/voting third party in Michigan; 12 percent in Kansas and Kentucky; 11 percent in Arkansas; 9 percent in Alaska, Colorado and Iowa. The only competitive state that is really where we would expect it to be at this point in the cycle is New Hampshire.

If someone is still uncertain as to what is happening to this county, they should remain uncertain and not vote.

Agreed, however...

Of two major parties, one party is more likely to promote that paradigm; the other more likely to take advantage of it by identifying those uncertain, convince them that they are completely certain (for that party) based on a few words, an emotion, an emblem, a word (ie, Forward), etc.

"I've learned to expect the unexpected."

The GOPe could pick up 10 Senate seats, break even, lose two, or anywhere in between those scenarios. Voters are angry but does that equate into a Republican wave? Old Snakehead James Carville once said all politics are local. We will see if Obama's unpopularity translates into GOPe votes. Unfortunately Not Obama does not appear on the ballot.

I appreciate where you are headed with that comment, but honestly I think we passed that road marker a ways back.

Ramirez's latest political cartoon LARGE VERSION 10/30/2014: LINK LINK to regular sized version of Ramirez's latest, and an archive of his political cartoons.
In this political cartoon, Ramirez presents, "Democrat Politicians"

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