Posted on 09/09/2014 10:10:55 AM PDT by centurion316
The biggest poll of the day came in Kansas, where SurveyUSA found independent candidate Greg Orman ahead of Republican Sen. Pat Roberts 37 percent to 36 percent. Notably, Democrat Chad Taylor, who has dropped out of the race but remains on the ballot, pulled in 10 percent. Roberts’s support has barely budged, but Orman’s backing has almost doubled.
Importantly, SurveyUSA informed voters that Taylor no longer appeared to want to run. That means Orman may not gain much more ground in the polls when voters realize on their own that Taylor ceased his campaign. Orman has more upside with the group voting for Taylor. At the same time, however, 26 percent of Republicans are voting for Orman. Can that hold up as voters learn more about Orman’s center-left track record?
FiveThirtyEight’s model indicates the race is too close to call: Roberts has a 54 percent chance of winning. That’s because the forecast takes into account “fundamentals” — factors such as Kansas’s Republican leaning electorate — which the model weights along with the polling.
Previously, the forecast had been using the state fundamentals estimate along with an earlier Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey, which had put Orman 10 points ahead of Roberts in a (hypothetical) head-to-head matchup. On that basis, the model had projected the race as a tossup, slightly tilting toward Roberts — about the same as it does now with the SurveyUSA poll also included.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
The election is 56 days away, and Republicans still can’t truthfully say what they stand for. And they say Obama is incompetent . . .
Roberts needs to ask over and over and over again who Orman will support to lead the senate. He’s got to tie Orman to Harry Reid and Obama.
Sadly Orman is the only legitimate candidate running as most in KS believe Roberts doesn’t live here. Roberts, much like Thad Chochran in MS, should have stepped aside. No one needs to be in Washington that long.
Perhaps the odds are that Roberts wins, but certainly their are Kansans seriously polling against him, not motivated to prop him up.
So, who are these Kansans?
The Establishment has scorned the conservative base, from coast to coast.
The base may be saying to the Estabs, “Miss us yet?”
Orman is hardly a legitimate candidate. He is a Democrat pretending to be an Independent so that he can fool Independents and Republicans into voting for him. He’s an empty suit as far a policy goes, he just thinks that “Washington is broken”. He is a defendant in a lawsuit that concerns his business affairs. He’s quit before when the going got tough.
Boxing firm has suit against Kansas Senate hopeful
CGato
He stated in the recent debates that he would caucus with the party in power in the Senate. That's not even leadership but I seriously doubt he would caucus with the republicans if they were to take power. I never trusted him from the beginning.
CGato
He has no intention of joining with the Republicans in any way. He’s a liberal Democrat, just lying to get disgruntled Republican votes.
The antidote will have to be high profile Roberts endorsements from Cruz / Paul / Palin etc. The Rs better not go all Stupid Party on us now.
I think winning the Senate might be the worst thing. If the GOPe wins the Senate they will do everything possible to look like they are getting things done. In order to do this they will have to give obama everything he wants.
I will not shed one tear if the GOPe loose this one! These old has been’s have to go!!!
Is Harry Reid an old has been?
KS polls are always taken in RAT urban areas.
A brilliant political analysis. We win by losing. That’s so much easier to do and it’s cheaper to boot. As losers, we are free to sit in the corner and complain about everything and can never be held accountable for what’s broken. Harry Reid will get all the blame. Maybe we could take this approach in the House as well?
Let’s hear it for Dingy Harry!!!!
Yeah, let’s let the damn dems keep killing America.
Kansas polls, as are all others, done in all area codes. People in urban areas tend to have fewer land lines, more call screening and are less polite about answering annoying polling calls. Rural areas tend to respond better to traditional polling methods. Polls try to correct for this which is where the special sauce comes in. Just how special depends on where you sit.
Orman has said that who he caucuses with will depend on which party is in the majority. How well that deflects the question remains to be seen.
He's legitimate enough to be outpolling Roberts. He had a debate with him the other day and in response to Robert's claim that "You elected me to go to Washington, I went to Washington" Orman pointed out that he's probably been to Dodge City more often this year than Roberts has. So he knows how to poke at Roberts' sore spots.
He’s an empty suit as far a policy goes, he just thinks that “Washington is broken”.
You just described a lot of Republicans running.
No kidding, these people have no clue all the shenanigans going on in this senate race. I do understand the frustration with DC but Roberts votes conservative far more than anything else. I have my own frustrations with him but it's not worth allowing the liberals to steal this under the guise of running Greg Orman as an independent.
"Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me".
This is just typical liberal democrat strategies, deceive the American people just like they did with 0bama to get him elected twice. They are trying to deceive the people of Kansas in order to try to keep the senate. Screw that, I smelled a rat when Orman was spending all kinds of money on ads, during the primaries. Only to find out he ran as a democrat against Roberts in 2008 before pulling out.
We can't afford to be fooled again like what happened with 0bama.
CGato
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