Posted on 03/12/2014 12:04:06 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Before we get to the poll, let's check in on MSNBC's Morning Joe as the gang grapples with last night's seismic event in Florida. The New York Times reporter "plays the contrarian" by spinning a story about how Obamacare wasn't really determinative in the race, claiming that it's only a base-energizing issue. Host Joe Scarborough quickly knocks that analysis down, predicting that Obamacare will deliver punishing blows to Democrats in back-to-back midterm cycles:
CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE VIDEO
I'll re-up veteran political handicapper Stuart Rothenberg's piece from January to underscore why the FL-13 results are significant. This wasn't some random battle; the deck was stacked for Democrats, yet prevailing political fundamentals pushed the W into the Republican column. Which brings us to the NBC/WSJ poll -- a survey series that's consistently been the most forgiving of Obama and Democrats among its peers. Chuck Todd teased that some ominous notes were on the way last night, and he wasn't overselling it:
Barack Obama and his Democratic Party are facing difficult political headwinds less than eight months before November’s midterm elections, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Obama’s job-approval rating has dropped to a low point of 41 percent, never a good position for the party controlling the White House; By a 33 percent to 24 percent margin, Americans say their vote will be to signal opposition to the president rather than to signal support, though 41 percent say their vote will have nothing to do about Obama; Forty-eight percent of voters say they’re less likely to vote for a candidate who’s a solid supporter of the Obama administration, versus 26 percent who say they’re more likely to vote for that candidate; And Republicans hold a one-point edge over Democrats on which party registered voters prefer to control Congress, 44 percent to 43 percent. While that’s within the poll’s margin of error, Republicans have traditionally fared well in elections when they’ve held a slight lead on this question.
That's a new nadir for Obama, mirroring an approval slide measured by most other polls. Ed Morrissey looks at some of the internals:
The right/wrong direction was at 41/53 just before the 2012 election, which Obama barely won; it’s now 26/65. The approval rating for Obama is worse now than it was when HHS laid an egg last October with ObamaCare. Obama’s approval on the economy slightly improved from December’s all-time low in this series of 39/58, but the 41/56 rating now is (a) a margin-of-error change, and (b) the second-worst of the series. His ratings on foreign policy have now dropped to an all-time low as well of 41/53, although it was 41/49 last August, during the Syrian “red line” debacle. This may be a better indicator of Obama’s fall from polling grace, too, since foreign policy had been a strong suit in his polling. August 2013's poll was the first time in his presidency that those ratings had gone negative....The problem for Obama and Democrats in this poll is that his personal likeability no longer keeps his overall numbers afloat. The “personal feelings” rating for Obama is now 41/44, with 15% neutral, in this poll.
Todd notes a data point that he says is the "best news" for Democrats:
Best health care news for Dems in #nbcwsjpoll. A Dem candidate who favors FIXING law tops a GOP cand who favors repeal, 48-47. #nbcwsjpoll — Chuck Todd (@chucktodd) March 12, 2014
Three problems with that argument: First, this question essentially produces a tie. Democrats have claimed the repeal crowd is a relatively small minority. Second, some of the biggest Obamacare "fixes" (and they're just that -- big -- not tweaks) that Americans want would destroy the underpinnings of the entire law. Third, Democrats just test drove the "fix it" message in Florida. And lost. It's a long way to November. There should be no counting of chickens on the Right. But the momentum and political winds are hard to ignore.
Is this the place where Boehner, McConnell, Cantor and the RINO establishment hit Happy Hour, pat themselves on the back, and royally blow the opportunity in November?
bttt
“with last night’s seismic event in Florida.”
Seismic? We barely held a seat that was the seat of the republican congressman with most seniority in congress!
Apparently Alex Sink tried to play the “fix-it” card, only to painfully reveal that nobody has a clue how to do this.
How can you trust people who screwed it up royally the first time to “fix” it?
That’s like trusting a builder who built you a house that blew down in the first big storm to build you a new one.
Here we go again... < sigh >
When do we change the paradigm that frames all of this reporting?
When do we see headlines like "Following Florida Win, NBC/WSJ Poll Offers More Hope to Republicans?"
Personally, I'm tired of the defeatest context that assumes that Democrat control is the natural order of things, and that everything is the Democrats to win or lose.
I want to see some editorial writing from a position of Republican-centric strength. I want that to be what is subliminally left in the reader's mind, not Democrat supremacy in all things.
-PJ
I thought we were going to be punished for the sequester and shutdown.
RE: I thought we were going to be punished for the sequester and shutdown.
1) American voters have short memories
2) I highly doubt if most of these voters in that district even know what the word “sequester” means, not to mention a shutdown that most of them hardly feel.
I will be interested to see how Sabato, Rothenberg, ElectionProjection and The Cook Report react to this vis a vis both the House and the Senate races.
As Rush Limbaugh observed, there is no news anymore, only the liberal narrative.
-PJ
All it takes to win is for the normal people to go out and vote.
Be careful ... it was an under attended special election that was still very close. The problem is that the RINOs rush out and yel “see, see, see” and the pundits do the same and we are all sitting around in November wondering what went wrong.
The Dems and the Rino’s will continue to make excuse all the way to November 9th and beyond, saying it is not our fault we are losing... it’s a comedy show.
We The People are awake and will continue awaking, as the Tea Party grows ever stronger by the day.
That the dim only pulled 46% is interesting.
Would be curious to see how the 10% that voted libertarian would vote if they could only choose between the two.
The Democrats’ problem is unlike with Social Security and Medicare, there are few political winners from Obamacare and lots of political losers.
The law hasn’t gotten more popular with time and its an albatross around their necks. They have to run on their vote for it and its a poison pill.
Plus Obama’s poll ratings simply suck. They’re looking at further losses in the House which is already GOP and the GOP looks set to take over the Senate, effectively rendering Obama a lame duck for his last two years in office.
The Democrats will regret his legacy soon enough as well as their politically suicidal decision to stick with it come hell or high water.
No one is shedding tears for their plight. Like the old saying has it, “you buy it, you own it.” That is exactly what the Democrats face in having to run on Obamacare. It never helps to be on the unpopular side of an issue.
Those stats seem to show that about half the voters are stupid about half the time, the rest of the time the other half of the voters are stupid.
Four groups have held Obama’s ratings up
Blacks voted 96% for Obama
Hispanics over 70% for Zero
Jews voted 78% for Oblamo
Asians voted over 79% for Obama
I would sure like to see the numbers on their support.
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