EDITORIAL: 'A lousy hurricane forecast'

NWF Daily News ^ | 11/29/13

[Libloather]

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season ended Saturday, and — unless a new sponsor pops up with wads of cash — so did Colorado State University’s hurricane forecasting team. Fine with us. We won’t miss either one.

The Colorado team, officially the Tropical Meteorology Project, has been issuing forecasts for the upcoming hurricane season each summer for 30 years. At the beginning of this year’s season, the team predicted 18 named storms. Nine of those, it said, would become hurricanes. Four would be major hurricanes.

Here’s how it shook out: There were 13 named storms. Only two became hurricanes. Neither was a major hurricane.

[Libloather]

If the earth is cooling, would the global warming idiots tell us?

[G Larry]

When you call for 16 and 8, and only get 13 and 2, with those 2 barely qualifying, wimpy 1’s, it’s way passed time to evaluate your assumptions.

They just might be agenda driven guesses, void of science.

[catfish1957]

Actually, Dr. Gray the cane forecaster at CSU thinks global warming is BS.

[Vaquero]

If the earth is cooling, would the global warming idiots tell us?

Yes. They would blame it on GoreBull warming and re-title it climate change. Which is what they already have done

[hlmencken3]

Global warming debunker Joe Bastardi made similar hurricane season predictions that turned out to be wrong.

Sometimes it just happens like that.

[trebb]

So, is the author upset at the inaccuracy or upset that the forecast didn’t pan out and cause more destruction?

[binreadin]

Someone from there came out and said they didn't take into account the very high-level winds that were drying out the atmosphere, blah, blah, blah . . . .

When the Sr. Dr. Gray used to be the main forecaster the forcasts were generally much more accurate. The new guys have tried to force all the forcasting elements into computer models, and so we now all see how laughable all the climate “science” really is. It's like trying to get the best road trip route from your GPS—can't be done. The computer is not able to evaluate for key elements, like traffic patterns, best view, best BBQ spot for lunch etc.

[lepton]

Hurricanes require a fairly precise set of parameters to form. Their power is derived from differences in heat, within ranges that produce quantities of water vapor, not absolute heat. A certain range of cross-winds are needed to start the cyclonic effect, and wind shear can disrupt it and weaken it.

[SamAdams76]

Attempting to forecast hurricanes long-term is a complete waste of time and resources. They are always busting and yet they continue to spend millions of dollars a year funding this nonsense. There is simply no reliable way to predict the number of hurricanes in a given season because there are so many variables at work.

Nothing is more annoying than all these high-paid "meteorologists" like that guy pictured below who are always pretending (when the cameras are on) to be busily poring over charts and data. Who is that guy on the phone with? Most likely his wife, telling him not to forget to schedule the grooming appointment for their poodle.

Now forecasting hurricanes real-time is another matter. That is something we are actually improving at and it does save a lot of lives and property.

So let's focus the resources on tracking existing hurricanes once they begin to actually form and stop trying to guess how many we are going to get...next year.

[txrefugee]

And the criteria for these storms has been so dumbed down that a 39 mph wind qualifies as a tropical storm. Good grief. Out on the Great Plains of this country, you can have a 40-50 mph wind almost every day.

To get their numbers up and their government grants flowing, the weather-crisis junkies will have to start naming it every time someone in the NWS passes gas.

[ThunderSleeps]

They just might be agenda driven guesses, void of science.

I would bet you dollars to the donuts I'm about to go get that is exactly the problem. Someone else needed a more dire season prediction for their agenda/message and the "scientists" gave it to them. They should be disbanded. They will hopefully learn that science is supposed to be about the search for truth and facts, not a prop for fascists.

[Bernard]

It sounds like another program funded by the federal government, in its never ending quest to be the only organization on the planet with sufficient amounts of time, money and hubris required to calculate exactly what it does not know.

To three decimal places.

[Don Corleone]

When you call for 16 and 8, and only get 13 and 2, with those 2 barely qualifying, wimpy 1’s, it’s way passed time to evaluate your assumptions.

They are still having trouble with two day forecasts. Seasonal hurricane forecasts....hopeless. My guess is as good as theirs.

[Dilbert San Diego]

Shouldn’t we all be happy there were no destructive hurricanes hitting the US this year??

They never seem to be accurate with these forecasts. Just stop doing them.

[Mastador1]

Who is that guy on the phone with? Most likely his wife, telling him not to forget to schedule the grooming appointment for their poodle.

Puhleease! That guy is a Chihuahua man at best!

[Moonman62]

And the criteria for these storms has been so dumbed down that a 39 mph wind qualifies as a tropical storm. Good grief. Out on the Great Plains of this country, you can have a 40-50 mph wind almost every day.

To get their numbers up and their government grants flowing, the weather-crisis junkies will have to start naming it every time someone in the NWS passes gas.

There's also the use of high resolution satellite images. Strong breezes that would have been ignored in the past or considered extra-tropical now get named.

[Moonman62]

Wind shear has more to do with hurricane development than slight changes in warmth.

[Spok]

The question is are the forecasts incompetent or just hopelessly politically corrupt?

[DoughtyOne]

OMG And just when we need them most. We’re going to have at least 10 Katrina’s a year by 2022 the sway the planet is warming.

Oh man... /s

Where are all the post Katrina global warming experts now?

[ClearBlueSky]

This is what I have learned from a life on the Gulf Coast re. hurricane season. I have concluded that THIS must be the SOP for the NWS and all ‘meteorologists’.It only gets worse. A daiquiri helps.

#1 NO ONE can predict the future. NO ONE, EVER.Still, you must try-you are a scientific FORECASTER! Precognition is on your diploma from Tijuana.

#2- Any said predictions, once made, MUST be right.

#3- To make #2 happen ANY cluster of thunderstorms that lasts more than a few hours must be NAMED. Rain and wind with a name is always worse, it makes it personal between you and the storm.

#4- Once named these systems must be tracked until they disappear, and even then can be referred to as ‘remnants of’, or ‘ghost of’, to keep the tension up and make the public think you are vigilant scientists.Use terms like ‘we have to keep this away from us’, as though you actually have that power.

#5-Ignore the absence of said systems, predict more as time runs out. The ‘big one’ is always coming.

#6= If a real hurricane develops off Africa, start talking it up. For two weeks you-the meteorologist- will be the most important person on television. Claim your place as ‘weather god’. Tell your audience that it ‘shouldn’t affect’ them, even when it is headed to the North Sea.

#7- Go into high panic mode when said audience ignores dire warnings after two weeks playing Chicken Little.

#8- Find thesaurus.Use every florid, violent adjective you can for rain, 35mph wind and impending damage. Never mind that worse conditions occur daily in thunderstorms.
Associate any wind and rain with a name with death and destruction. Desensitize your audience-just stay on camera.

#9-When a real storm is threatening( this is MOST important) forcefully repeat time and again that ‘these things are UNPREDICATBLE! 2hours away from landfall you are sure of NOTHING. It could stop, it could zig, it could go to Poland. You can’t be held responsible for knowing what a hurricane will do in less than 24 hours! You are only a ‘forecaster’!

#10-Refer to rule #1, be humble, explain that science is inexact. Then do a long range outlook and predict how many storms there will be NEXT year. Play with your computer models, ignore that weather outside your window.