Posted on 10/26/2013 11:40:55 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
WINCHESTER, Va. — Nothing's more elusive in the Old Dominion than a voter who wholeheartedly supports a candidate for governor.
Take Bob Courtney, for example.
Standing under a post office awning here as a misty rain fell, Courtney said he would “hold my nose and vote” — adding, after a long pause, that he'd pick the Republican as “the lesser of two evils.”
With the election nine days away, that Republican — Ken Cuccinelli, the state's attorney general — trails Democratic fundraiser extraordinaire Terry McAuliffe by nearly 18 points in one recent poll. Libertarian Robert Sarvis is a distant third.
The prevailing national mood — anti-Washington, anti-government, still fatigued by last year's presidential election — is magnified in Virginia because of its proximity to Washington.
Neither Cuccinelli nor McAuliffe has energized supporters, analysts say.
“Not appealing to your base is a big problem in an off-year election,” said Bruce Haynes, a Republican media consultant for Virginia-based Purple Strategies, a firm that represents candidates of both parties.
Both men have enlisted partisan stars to campaign for them: Bill and Hillary Clinton for McAuliffe; Sens. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former presidential candidate Mike Huckabee for Cuccinelli.
Both unleashed highly negative campaign ads to suppress moderate-voter support.
Geoffrey Skelley, a political analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said things “look bleak” for Cuccinelli.
“The aggregate polling indicates an increasing McAuliffe lead, and the latest fundraising numbers show an ever-growing McAuliffe advantage there, too,” he said. McAuliffe raised a reported $6.2 million in September, versus Cuccinelli's $3.4 million.
Skelley said the federal shutdown hurt both sides because “so much of Northern Virginia (is) part of the government workforce,” but “Republicans are getting more of the blame, which can't help Cuccinelli.”
‘Crusader' vs. ‘Insider'
In the spring, the race looked very different.
Three polls in April and early May showed Cuccinelli ahead; one from the Washington Post put him up by 10 percentage points.
Yet, McAuliffe has held the lead in all but one poll since mid-May and in all polls since August, according to RealClearPolitics' poll compendium.
He has about a 7-point advantage in the poll average.
The race has been all about Cuccinelli's ideology.
Like former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., he is a conservative crusader on issues such as abortion and gay marriage, and his firebrand personality is most at ease appealing to fellow fundamentalists.
Haynes believes Cuccinelli was “defined early on” as “too ideological to be governor” and he failed to “talk about how he would govern.”
“Most McAuliffe attack ads employ the line, ‘He's focused on his own agenda. Not us' — whether the ad deals with abortion, women's health issues, homosexuality or climate change — to try to make Virginia voters see Cuccinelli as an extremist,” Skelley said.
McAuliffe has not exactly set Democrats on fire, however.
Known more as a Washington insider and fundraiser than a native Virginian, his campaign has been dogged by questions about GreenTech Automotive, an electric car company he founded that is being investigated in two federal inquiries.
Sitting alone in the Frederick County Democratic headquarters on Braddock Street here, volunteer Bill Scott said McAuliffe's business investments “certainly aroused questions.”
“I'd personally prefer someone more progressive,” he said.
With an iconic Obama “Hope” silkscreen poster leaning against McAuliffe yard signs behind him, Scott admitted it will “be hard to get young people” to vote.
Skelley said turnout is hard to predict: “On the one hand, neither candidate is well-liked, and the race is terribly ugly. But on the other hand, this race is still much more competitive than the 2009 Virginia governor's race,” when Republican Bob McDonnell beat Democrat Creigh Deeds by 17 points.
National impact?
Republicans control Virginia's statewide offices, except for its Senate seats, and both state legislative chambers — even though President Obama twice won the state.
Experts are uncertain how the governor's race will affect down-ballot contests. They are uncertain whether it will impact 2014 midterm elections.
As for national implications in 2014 or in 2016's presidential race, Haynes said this election looks more like a choice of the less odious candidate than a harbinger of things to come. But it could impact “the broader battle (for) the direction of the Republican Party.”
If Cuccinelli loses, he said, that could be “ammunition for those who are making the argument that the Republican Party needs to reposition itself” to attract more centrist voters.
“Right now, it is hard to articulate what Republicans are for — and if Cuccinelli goes down, people will hold this up as the latest example of that,” he said.
Haynes does not believe Republicans nationally should be alarmed by the lopsided fundraising advantage McAuliffe has held here, or that Massachusetts' Democrat Ed Markey held over Republican Gabriel Gomez in a June special election for John Kerry's Senate seat.
“Yes, there is donor fatigue, but there is also money out there to do something,” he said. In Virginia as in Massachusetts, “both the ideological and business money was looking for the right guy in the right race” — and neither found Cuccinelli or Gomez compelling.
Instead, he said, Republicans should learn from this race that they need a better, more positive message to win over voters.
“ ‘Grim death is upon us' is all you ever heard” from too many Republicans, he said. “People don't want to go to a political funeral — they want to go to a revival.”
“Right now, it is hard to articulate what Republicans are for — and if Cuccinelli goes down, people will hold this up as the latest example of that,” he said.
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Cruz says conservatives need to focus on OPPORTUNITY like a laser. That the biggest lie is that the Republican Party is the party of the rich.
Below is part of what Senator Cruz told the Iowa audience.
Introduced as, "from wacko bird to "soaring eagle" - Ted Cruz at the Iowa Republican Party Reagan Dinner - Cruz's talk starts about 30:00 into the C-SPAN VIDEO.
About the 1:00 mark of the video he starts talking strategy: “the path to victory” - don’t take advice from the New York Times on how the Republican party can save itself - we need to unify - we need to come together - growth and freedom are principles and ideals that unify the Republican Party - the evangelical community with the liberty movement, with the business community - growth and freedom bring together Main Street and the Tea Party.
If we get back to our core principles that’s how you reassemble and keep strong Ronald Reagan’s 3 legged stool....... then he describes how it has been done (wrongly in recent losing elections) and how that didn’t work - got our clocks cleaned (except the grass roots campaign in 2010 and our stand against Obamacare and for growth and freedom won elections up and down the ticket)............you don’t win races by keeping your heads down......
Poppycock: run to the right in the primary and run to the middle in the general - if you do that you destroy every reason for voters to show up and vote for you...... Cruz continues in the vein of “why this fight is worth it” (worth a listen). We must focus on “opportunity” - the biggest lie is that the Republican Party is the party of the rich..........continues.....
That would be the SMART thing to do.
“The prevailing national mood — anti-Washington, anti-government, still fatigued by last year’s presidential election — is magnified in Virginia because of its proximity to Washington. “
Yeah, so it’s best to vote for the big government, Marxist Democrat.
Like former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., he is a conservative crusader on issues such as abortion and gay marriage, and his firebrand personality is most at ease appealing to fellow fundamentalists.
Lol, no media bias there. Man, I really hate the media.
That is the implication. lol
Oh, I do, too. Absolutely despise the MSM.
I think these leftist commies of today are all strident fundamentalists too. They refuse to compromise anything.
And particularly, the sleazy Terry McAwful.
For sure, and Terry McAwful will send VA right into the swamp.
With an iconic Obama “Hope” silkscreen poster leaning against McAuliffe yard signs behind him, Scott admitted it will “be hard to get young people” to vote.
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Oct 27, 2013 - American Thinker:
The Millennials: An Economically Lost Generation (under Obama) ".......Sadly, this generation is facing long economic odds, both now and in their future, thanks, in part, to the condition of the Obama-led economy."
If Virginians can’t see the sleaze-ball carpetbagger McAiliffe for what he is, then they deserve the wrack and ruin he will bring to the state. I’ve already sent my absentee ballot.
Skelley said the federal shutdown hurt both sides because “so much of Northern Virginia (is) part of the government workforce,” but “Republicans are getting more of the blame, which can’t help Cuccinelli.”
***
Really? People are that dumb that they think that Cuccinelli, Virginia’s AG, moonlights as a member of the US House of Representatives?
Of course, this Skelley clown and the jerk who wrote this piece could not possibly have an agenda, right? Reminds me of the political “journalist” trick of saying, in an interview, something along the lines of, “Some of your critics say X....”
Libertarian Robert Sarvis is a distant third and he needs to drop out and endorse Cuccinelli.
***
I know nothing about this individual, but I will speculate anyway: Perhaps the Soros Machine wants him to stay in to split the vote in McAwful’s favor.
But you don’t understand, my FRiend. The “journalists” must paint Cuccinelli as an extremist so that McAwful’s win through voter fraud will look legitimate.
Bet on it, the DemocRAT voter fraud buses are all gassed up and stocked with the money, drugs, alcohol — and whatever other party favors that the illegal and multiple voters require — in order to push the Soros favorite over the finish line. This model proved extremely successful for the Rats in the last few election cycles.
Republicans control Virginia's statewide offices, except for its Senate seats, and both state legislative chambers...s/b "Republicans control Virginia's both state legislative chambers and statewide offices, except for its US Senate seats..." but IOW, the Pubbies in Virginia control a little more than half, but hold no US Senate seats. Partisan Media Shills ping.
But there is no likelihood of either of those Senate seats going Republican possibly for many decades in the future.
BTTT!
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