In 1963 Edward Lorenz published his paper “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow” that proved that the Navier Stokes differential equations that describe fluid flow with changes in temperature and density (weather and most of climate), can not be predicted from any finite set of past states. The equations are nonlinear, chaotic and show sensitive dependence on initial conditions.
An error of 0.001 degree in one temperature reading would increase. He is the discoverer of the ‘butterfly effect’ the idea that a butterfly in Peking flaps its wings, and because of that, a tornado does, or doesn’t hit Joplin. You can’t predict which, but you know it makes a difference.
The sun is partially described by the NS equations too. It is, of course, much bigger than the earth, and is also not subject to either prediction or control by man.
Which was a fancy analytic way of saying that the natural factors which vie and combine to define the “global temperature” (if we can agree on what that means as a single number, kind of like defining a person’s mind with a single number IQ) are vastly larger than what puny man can do. In fact paradoxical effects are possible; “Mother Nature” may “decide” to meet all this “greenhouse gas” with nods towards a new ice age. These silly slyentists are treating the system as though it were nicely contained in a laboratory chamber, and not roaring with chaos!
“An error of 0.001 degree in one temperature reading would increase. He is the discoverer of the ‘butterfly effect’ the idea that a butterfly in Peking flaps its wings, and because of that, a tornado does, or doesn’t hit Joplin. You can’t predict which, but you know it makes a difference.”
I’ll like to see the ‘modeling’ of the effects of solar arrays. The arrays are interrupting the suns rays, and thus changing the amount of heat absorbed by the earth. May be small, but leverage that small effect = ????
Similar for the disturbing of the wind flows and patterns by power generating windmills.
Actually I do not want to see the modeling. I contend that these ‘modelers’ do not know what they are talking about!