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HOW THE HOCKEY STICK CRUMBLED: A POST MORTEM (It's not Michael Mann's hockey stick.)
Power Line ^ | APRIL 3, 2013 | JOHN HINDERAKER

Posted on 04/08/2013 9:41:22 AM PDT by neverdem

Last month, a group of scientists headed by geologist Shaun Marcott launched the latest salvo in the global warming war. They announced that they had reconstructed the last 11,000 years of Earth climate history, based on various proxies, and had found that in the 20th century there was an unprecedented uptick in temperature. The Marcott paper was hailed by liberal media outlets; to cite just a few examples:

* “We’re screwed: 11,000 years’ worth of ­climate data prove it.” The Atlantic, March 10.
* “The modern rise that has recreated the temperatures of 5,000 years ago is occurring at an exceedingly rapid clip on a geological time scale, appearing in graphs in the new paper as a sharp vertical spike.” Justin Gillis, New York Times, March 7.
* “’Rapid’ head spike unlike anything in 11,000 years. Research released Thursday in the journal Science uses fossils of tiny marine organisms to reconstruct global temperatures…. It shows how the glode for several thousands of years was cooling until an unprecedented reversal in the 20th century.” The Associated Press, March 7.

But when real scientists–that is, those who apply a skeptical, scientific approach rather than a religious attitude of fervor–studied the Marcott paper, it quickly fell apart. We wrote about the Marcott fiasco here and here. It turned out that Marcott and his colleagues had created the 20th century warming spike–which was, in reality, the sole purpose of their exercise–by changing the dates on some of the samples they used as proxies.

In the Financial Post, Ross McKitrick reviews the entire sorry episode:

The new, and startling, feature of the Marcott graph was at the very end: Their data showed a remarkable uptick that implied that, during the 20th century, our climate swung from nearly the coldest conditions over the...


(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: climate; climatechange; climatechangefraud; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax; hockeystick
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1 posted on 04/08/2013 9:41:22 AM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

“Feels like” winter in Sacramento!


2 posted on 04/08/2013 10:03:57 AM PDT by TauntedTiger (Keep away from the fence!)
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To: neverdem

Everyone bought this crap as actual science.

ANYONE with a brain for science knew it was crap just from looking at the graph.

The total ‘change’ they were talking about was a half a degree. That’s right, 0.5 degF., in a graph that supposedly covers hundreds of years.

The problem right off the bat is that there was no way to measure something close to a half a degree from TREE RINGS

And to generate a graph from that and extrapolate it to a hundred years in the future is scientific fraud on a criminal level.

Look how many BILLIONS of dollars have been wasted because of this fraud?

SEND HIM A BILL!


3 posted on 04/08/2013 10:06:06 AM PDT by Mr. K (There are lies, damned lies, statistics, and democrat talking points.)
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To: Mr. K
And just how many factors, other than temperature, can affect tree growth?? And how were those factors controlled for to allow 'extracting' accurate temperature readings?
4 posted on 04/08/2013 10:22:14 AM PDT by Bob
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To: Mr. K

The least they could do is black-ball all of these people who have manipulated the data. They should lose their positions, any grants they have & be cut off from the peer review process. That is a minimum punishment. We’ll never get our billions back, but this might help to curtail junk science in the future.


5 posted on 04/08/2013 10:27:08 AM PDT by Twotone (Marte Et Clypeo)
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To: neverdem

Without fail, EVERY hockey stick projection turns out to be wrong.


6 posted on 04/08/2013 10:31:08 AM PDT by SeaHawkFan
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To: neverdem
I heard somewhere, Limbaugh maybe, that a group of researchers took baseball stats, and used the same software and techniques that Mann did, and it produced a hockey stick graph. You could probably feed anything into it -- Playboy bunny measurements, lottery numbers, etc. -- and get the same result. That's what happens when you start with a conclusion in mind, and then "research" your way to that conclusion. Not that the hockey stick graph ever had any credibility with me, but that's when it should have fallen apart for anyone who's intellectually honest.

Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!

7 posted on 04/08/2013 10:32:08 AM PDT by wku man (We are the 53%! www.7161.com/streamer.cfm?dt_track_id=21356)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

(( ping ))


8 posted on 04/08/2013 10:37:19 AM PDT by Lancey Howard
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To: neverdem
From the linked article:

This uptick became the focus of considerable excitement, as well as scrutiny. One of the first questions was how it was derived. Marcott had finished his PhD thesis at Oregon State University in 2011 and his dissertation is online. The Science paper is derived from the fourth chapter, which uses the same 73 proxy records and seemingly identical methods. But there is no uptick in that chart, nor does the abstract to his thesis mention such a ­finding.

So...what I'm wondering is do they award PhDs to candidates who just make stuff up? Seriously...did the reviewing committee sign off on this canard? Was this Marcott actually awarded his PhD on the basis of this thoroughgoing fraud? I mean...if all you have to do to get a PhD is to pull a load of crap from out of your buttocks and shove it before some gullible rubes on a committee, then I could qualify for at least one PhD a month.

I can make stuff up with the best of them, and my stuff would be much more believable than this steaming pile offered by this Marcott fellow. ;-)
9 posted on 04/08/2013 10:41:22 AM PDT by Milton Miteybad (I am Jim Thompson. {Really.})
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To: neverdem

We’re making progress! It took years to get the data to disprove Mann’s fraud. This one went down in months.


10 posted on 04/08/2013 10:45:03 AM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: wku man
You could probably feed anything into it -- Playboy bunny measurements, lottery numbers, etc.

An astrophysicist pointed out to me that Mann used so few data points to draw his hockey-stick graph that you could draw almost any curve connecting them—including global cooling.

11 posted on 04/08/2013 10:52:14 AM PDT by SamuraiScot
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To: neverdem
"What you do, if you are a serious scientist operating according to the established method, is attempt to falsify your hypothesis. Test it to destruction; carry out serious attacks on its weakest points to see if they hold up. If they do... then you have a theory that can be published, and tested, and verified by other scientists. If you don't, you throw it out."

Global Warming Fraud and the Future of Science - J. R. Dunn

The "scientists" who perpetrated the global warming scam approached their science in exactly the opposite manner as the approach described above. They formulated a theory based on political ideology (as well as the path of least resistance to "grant" money) and then did whatever they had to do with their data to "prove" it.

The world has now seen the complete unraveling of the "global warming" / "climate change" scam thanks to the diligent investigative work of honest scientists like those cited in the above story who quickly exposed the Marcotte fabrication, along with the leaked email dumps of November 2009 and November 2011 (and now even more recent dumps). The discipline of science has taken a massive hit over the past five-plus years and it could take decades for science - - and scientists - - to regain any credibility with the public.

A lot of that burden must fall on honest scientists, and the first and most important thing they need to do is scream for the heads of Michael Mann, Phil Jones, Shaun Marcott, and the rest of the greedy, lying "climategate" fraudsters. I guess we'll see if they have the integrity to do it.

12 posted on 04/08/2013 10:52:37 AM PDT by Lancey Howard
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To: neverdem

bm


13 posted on 04/08/2013 10:53:38 AM PDT by Vision (Obama is king of the "Takers." Don't be a "Taker.")
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To: Milton Miteybad

Marcotts thesis did not contain the hockey stick. The stick was added to his original thesis when he decided to publish to an international audience. I actually believe it wasn’t his idea to do it.


14 posted on 04/08/2013 10:54:35 AM PDT by dsrtsage (One half of all people have below average IQ. In the US the number is 54%)
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To: neverdem
The premise crumbled because McIntyre is a tenacious genius.

The guy deserves a Congressional Medal of Freedom.

15 posted on 04/08/2013 10:59:02 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (An economy is not a zero-sum game, but politics usually is.)
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To: Carry_Okie
The guy deserves a Congressional Medal of Freedom.

Politicians want corrupt science to pave the way for bigger government, more taxes and power. I don't think he'll be getting a medal.

16 posted on 04/08/2013 11:09:00 AM PDT by Moonman62 (The US has become a government with a country, rather than a country with a government.)
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To: Clyde5445
Hockey sticks?

We don't need no stinkin hockey sticks........

17 posted on 04/08/2013 11:32:01 AM PDT by Lakeshark (!)
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To: neverdem

Below is Marcott’s response to the controversy

http://virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com/2013/04/02/marcotts-update-to-his-global-warming-paper-never-mind-everything-i-said/


18 posted on 04/08/2013 11:37:27 AM PDT by Brooklyn Attitude (Obama being re-elected is the political equivalent of OJ being found not guilty.)
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To: TauntedTiger

19 posted on 04/08/2013 1:08:29 PM PDT by pabianice
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To: pabianice

All the carbon exchanges are dead, Jim!


20 posted on 04/08/2013 1:28:47 PM PDT by TauntedTiger (Keep away from the fence!)
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