Truckers Knew We Were In A Once-In-A-Generation Recession Before Anyone Else

TBI ^ | 1-18-2013 | Rob Wile

[blam]

This article is five days old.

Who is lying?

[Kartographer]

Give those truckers ‘Obama’ phones and EBT cards!

[taildragger]

Not investment advise here...

But, like many I like to listen to peoples investment key indicators and theories.

I met a guy @ the better half's employer's luncheon.

Said gent noted his key for in and out of the market(s) were the (I'll assume going forward orders) orders and revenues of the various truck manufacturers at the time and he always seemed to be out before a downturn. I'd need to really study this pet theory, but like many they are food for thought...

[Standing Wolf]

It’s not a bad idea to keep an eye on cardboard production and box manufacturing.

[Osage Orange]

You can watch the Big Tanker stocks....too. TNP, DHT, TK, GASS, VLCCF.....etc.

[blam]

USA 2013 - The Existing Social Order Will be Swept Away

[Vince Ferrer]

It makes perfect sense that truckers would know first, since they are the part of logistics which is closest to end consumers. Container shipping works on a 9-12 month lead time from factory orders to shipments, but a trucker going from a WalMart distribution center to a store would know what the economy is doing in that town on a daily basis, based on how full the truck is that day.

[Osage Orange]

Old trick....and it works.

[woodbutcher1963]

Blam,
I deal with small to medium size trucking companies everyday. They all are trying to find drives and they all are adding trucks to their fleets. At $150K a pop(for a tractor), they do not do this without some forethought. The biggest problem they all tell me about is the inability to find qualified CDL drivers that can pass a drug test and therefore able to insure them. Starting pay for most of these companies is $45K/year.

In addition to my own personal experience, I have heard both McClain and Central Oregon Trucking commercials on the radio advertising for drivers and offering a signing bonus.

We are coming out of the recession. Housing starts and permits are steadily increasing. Existing home sales are steadily growing and inventories are 4 months or less. Unemployment is slowly going down.

We may not like Obama or his policies but I can assure you that all of the above statements are fact and point to an improving economy not the opposite.

[optiguy]

Thanks for the link. He’s right on.

[blam]

There’s a sign not far from my house advertising for CDL tanker truck drivers.

[ImJustAnotherOkie]

Obama would say, look at all the money we are saving with less road crews to repair the damage by the trucks.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Rail car activity is also a tell tale sign. As an FYI UPS puts a ton of their ground packages on rail.

[Flavious_Maximus]

You do not know what you are talking about. The so-called “improving economy” is based on smoke and mirrors. Most of net activity is based on government spending. Obama is borrowing and printing trillions $ to fool the masses. There are 9 million less in the labor force that there were in 2008. We also have gained another 6 million population increase. Mega-inflation is what we are going to get soon.

[SoftballMominVA]

My brother is a trucker. He’s shared many of these concerns.

He’s gone from having a fleet of a dozen trucks and 20 employees to only himself, his wife, and his son.

Too bad too, he was a good employer and took care of his people. Guess it’s up to the president to do that now

[Sequoyah101]

I remember truck orders going down before the recession.

Eventually pent up demand will pull the economy out of the doldrums. People can’t defer everything for ever. Strange recession this has been. The employed, the threatened and the jobless and the takers. The two bookends, employed and the takers, just seem to have carried on.

How many shifts is Navistar working now?

[RobertClark]

I deal with small to medium size trucking companies everyday. They all are trying to find drives and they all are adding trucks to their fleets. At $150K a pop(for a tractor), they do not do this without some forethought. The biggest problem they all tell me about is the inability to find qualified CDL drivers that can pass a drug test and therefore able to insure them. Starting pay for most of these companies is $45K/year.

In addition to my own personal experience, I have heard both McClain and Central Oregon Trucking commercials on the radio advertising for drivers and offering a signing bonus.

We are coming out of the recession. Housing starts and permits are steadily increasing. Existing home sales are steadily growing and inventories are 4 months or less. Unemployment is slowly going down.

We may not like Obama or his policies but I can assure you that all of the above statements are fact and point to an improving economy not the opposite.

I disagree with this industry analysis. I own and operate a transportation consulting firm as well as operate my own fleet. Yes, qualified drivers are in demand, but not because of the amount of available tonnage. The tonnage that is moving is not worth hauling, as it is barely covering expenses. My P&L makes this a fact.

Sure, we are continually bombarded by the $45k / first year with sign on bonus ads. Do a quick google search and find out about the performance and intents of the companies that are doing this advertising. PAM, Swift, Landstar, Prime and others all have the same racket. These sign on drivers rarely make $20k and quit before qualifying for their "bonus" - it's a numbers game, churn and burn.

I have reduced my fleet by 50% as well as seen a lot of my clients undertake actions that reduces their capacity. I'm within 2 miles of the largest trucking companies in the U.S., and the industry is in turmoil because of reduced demand.

[RobertClark]

You are correct. Guess what is happening to rail volume? Same as OTR LTL volumes!!!

[woodbutcher1963]

The trucking companies I deal with are mostly flatbed heavy haulers of lumber, plywood and other commodities out in the Pacific Northwest. They typically are not reefer(refridgerated) haulers. Their business has been increasing for the last three years. At first they brought back equipment that had been mothballed. Now they are buying new equipment.

As I stated in my previous post, the biggest problem is trying to hire qualified drivers. Being a long haul trucker is a very difficult job. My dad was an owner operator tanker driver. Long hours and phyiscally exhausting and sometimes days away from home and family. Flatbeds are even harder because you may be required to tarp the load, especially in the winter. That means climbing up on the flatbed and the product on the trailer and straping down a 50 x 20 full tarp. Sometimes drivers fall off and get hurt.

You need to have a clean driving record to get insurance coverage. The more dangerous commodity you are hauling the higher the insurance and pay. My dad hauled everything from rocket propellant, acids, blue indigo dye, palmolive dish soap to liquified sugar. He frequented places like Hooker and Dow Chemical, WR Grace and an air base in Alabama, where they built missiles. Of course he died of cancer.

[Wurlitzer]

By the time trucking stats start heading south it is too late.

Cardboard orders, used for all sorts of packaging, leads trucking by maybe a quarter or so.