[woodbutcher1963]

Blam,
I deal with small to medium size trucking companies everyday. They all are trying to find drives and they all are adding trucks to their fleets. At $150K a pop(for a tractor), they do not do this without some forethought. The biggest problem they all tell me about is the inability to find qualified CDL drivers that can pass a drug test and therefore able to insure them. Starting pay for most of these companies is $45K/year.

In addition to my own personal experience, I have heard both McClain and Central Oregon Trucking commercials on the radio advertising for drivers and offering a signing bonus.

We are coming out of the recession. Housing starts and permits are steadily increasing. Existing home sales are steadily growing and inventories are 4 months or less. Unemployment is slowly going down.

We may not like Obama or his policies but I can assure you that all of the above statements are fact and point to an improving economy not the opposite.

[blam]

There’s a sign not far from my house advertising for CDL tanker truck drivers.

[Flavious_Maximus]

You do not know what you are talking about. The so-called “improving economy” is based on smoke and mirrors. Most of net activity is based on government spending. Obama is borrowing and printing trillions $ to fool the masses. There are 9 million less in the labor force that there were in 2008. We also have gained another 6 million population increase. Mega-inflation is what we are going to get soon.

[Sequoyah101]

I remember truck orders going down before the recession.

Eventually pent up demand will pull the economy out of the doldrums. People can’t defer everything for ever. Strange recession this has been. The employed, the threatened and the jobless and the takers. The two bookends, employed and the takers, just seem to have carried on.

How many shifts is Navistar working now?

[RobertClark]

I deal with small to medium size trucking companies everyday. They all are trying to find drives and they all are adding trucks to their fleets. At $150K a pop(for a tractor), they do not do this without some forethought. The biggest problem they all tell me about is the inability to find qualified CDL drivers that can pass a drug test and therefore able to insure them. Starting pay for most of these companies is $45K/year.

In addition to my own personal experience, I have heard both McClain and Central Oregon Trucking commercials on the radio advertising for drivers and offering a signing bonus.

We are coming out of the recession. Housing starts and permits are steadily increasing. Existing home sales are steadily growing and inventories are 4 months or less. Unemployment is slowly going down.

We may not like Obama or his policies but I can assure you that all of the above statements are fact and point to an improving economy not the opposite.

I disagree with this industry analysis. I own and operate a transportation consulting firm as well as operate my own fleet. Yes, qualified drivers are in demand, but not because of the amount of available tonnage. The tonnage that is moving is not worth hauling, as it is barely covering expenses. My P&L makes this a fact.

Sure, we are continually bombarded by the $45k / first year with sign on bonus ads. Do a quick google search and find out about the performance and intents of the companies that are doing this advertising. PAM, Swift, Landstar, Prime and others all have the same racket. These sign on drivers rarely make $20k and quit before qualifying for their "bonus" - it's a numbers game, churn and burn.

I have reduced my fleet by 50% as well as seen a lot of my clients undertake actions that reduces their capacity. I'm within 2 miles of the largest trucking companies in the U.S., and the industry is in turmoil because of reduced demand.

[glorgau]

In 15 years my prediction is that most long haul truck drivers will be redundant. Computer driven vehicles are coming along that fast.

Companies will be buying the trucks, they won’t be paying the drivers.

[darth]

Some sectors of the economy are strong; others are weak.

In Houston it is obvious that drilling is going great guns all over the world. Everybody sees the unstable MENA as unreliable. The world MUST have oil and gas.

However, we are also seeing a surge in violent crime. There have been two attempted armored car robberies near me in the last year. I think the unemployable are getting restless and think they are entitled.

Despite being led by idiots who think they can tax, regulate, and spend the country to prosperity, entrepreneurs are finding ways to survive and grow. For example, I was at an industry dinner where we were briefed on ObamaCare. EVERY biz owner there spoke about their plan to lay off workers, go to part timers, and get below the limits of the new rules. They will quickly adapt and evade.

As for the future, I am convinced by the incredibly prescient Kyle Bass, i.e., “War and DEFAULT are coming”.

I used to think there was hope. The massive vote fraud of the last election proved that I was too optimistic.